Archives 2021

The Navigator Algorithm drifted into a sell signal today, but we do not have a significant cycle trough presenting until the end of the month. Even that one is relatively minor compared to the October low. Our best judgment is that the market will go sideways or experience a relatively minor dip here. And, we may yet get another leg up before some additional weakness presents late in the month.

Of course, the market will do what it wants to do, so we will be monitoring the price action carefully before making any decisions. We are 100% in cash at the moment. But there is no harm in communicating a heads up. The IShares Russell 2000 Small Company Index ETF (IWM) and Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund ETF (DBC) are on the Founder’s group radar to pick up in this pullback.

Even if the major indices continue to correct or move sideways, the IWM and DBC could still move higher.

We will be focusing on December 17th monthly at-the-money calls for both potential opportunities. The DBC calls are less than ideal, as they are thinly traded, so the spread to buy and sell is high. But liquidity is not an issue if you are buying just a few of them. It is, however, a bit more of an expense hurdle on both ends that digs into profits (or expands losses if the investment fails).

Buying shares of the DBC ETF outright is the best course if you don’t need the call leverage. The initial upside target is 22.75, or a 6% gain from today’s close at 21.48. Hopefully, we can enter at a lower price, but the ETF has not given much ground since it bottomed last Thursday.

The DBC can serve as a good inflation hedge in this environment. The fund invests in a diversified basket of commodities, including both agricultural and energy. This exposure could be critical in the weeks and months ahead. If money managers shifted even a small allocation to commodities, this asset class could move parabolically higher. In this regard, acquiring some shares outright with a longer-term hold plan could be advisable.

We will keep you posted.

A.F. Thornton

Yesterday’s market traded completely inside Friday’s price action, adding some balance between buyers and sellers. But sometimes, what the market doesn’t do is more important than what it does. The absence of committed sellers is noteworthy, especially at these lofty levels. Until the sellers show up, it would seem that the market is running time off the clock until it sees the Consumer Price Index numbers tomorrow.

The Producer Price Index came in fractionally below consensus this morning. The year-over-year rate still exceeds 8%. But it could have been worse, right? Had the number exceeded expectations, the market would not be happy. As for now, the market is trading only slightly lower at 4695 or so.

Swing traders would be wise to continue favoring high cash positions. The market does not have much room to go higher unless we are going parabolic to create a higher weekly trading channel. Sideways seems the more likely path before we see a dip for at least a few days. Please wait for the range to establish itself before getting brave. Stay neutral – don’t get overly bearish. Bearish is not justified quite yet, if at all.

Day traders can use the overnight high at 4697.50 as today’s gateway to higher prices. The battle here is to capture and hold 4700. The weekly open at 4702 is the switch between the weekly candle going red or green. If the overnight high is conquered, yesterday’s high at 4707.50 is the first target, then the all-time high at 4711.75. Above 4711.75 is no man’s land.

Going south, it gets interesting if we start trading below yesterday’s regular session low at 4687.50. That would qualify as a pivot lower on the cash index and spook buyers. Were we to close below 4687.50, the sellers might begin to wake up. The risk of rapid liquidation breaks increases at these levels and with the weak structure below us. Stops will be important today.

Globex traders pushed the market lower to 4680, but we are back above 4687.50 this morning. Acceptance below 4680 is suspicious. A move below 4667.50 conquers Friday’s low and confirms that corrective action is underway. The first of many virgin Points of Control sits at 4664.25 – a good, first downside target.

Good luck today.

A.F. Thornton

The best part about the recent stock market progression has been the push/pull of the inflation trade. Sometimes energy and materials lead the market along with financials (driven by interest rate pressure). This leadership alternates with technology. Technology leads when there is less pressure on rates due to lower inflation expectations. The result has been mild pullbacks because the sectors don’t correct in unison.

Notably, this week, we get the new CPI number on Wednesday. Even the consensus expects inflation to rise. And we already know that CPI understates the true inflation rate. I fear that the inflation genie is out of the bottle. Good luck stuffing her back in.

For example, government and Social Security retirement funds are given a 5% plus cost of living boost. That is 75 million people with more money to spend. That boosts inflation and accommodates higher prices.

If you believe the statistics, there are 7 million unemployed available for 10 million jobs. That will surely lead to wage pressure.

The Fed has not exactly been aggressive in the inflation fight. Chairman Powell wants to be reappointed in January and won’t cross the Biden administration. The Fed has also caught the “woke” virus, which will skew their mandate to maintain price stability.

Unbelievably, the Biden administration wants to shut down another oil pipeline. They are turning a blind eye to the parabolic rise in energy prices and utility bills. In fact, they are celebrating it.

Then, as I have pointed out, the Millennial generation is moving into its housing stage. Along with illegal immigration, this is causing considerable demand for housing, just as their Baby Boom parents experienced in the late 1970s.

Over the weekend, the headlines have all been about how the stock market is ready to crash due to the parabolic rise from the October low. If I have learned anything these past 35 years, it is that the market rarely follows consensus expectations.

The market definitely looks like it is in a climatic blow-off phase, but I cannot tell you the climb is over yet. I can say that just as it has over the past year, the market has climbed to the top of the weekly channel. Up here, it has tended to go sideways for a bit, then dips slightly into one of the cycle lows.

So I am giving the market two possibilities. First, it could expand the channel with the seeming lack of sellers at hand. Second, it could go sideways and ride the channel at a slower pace and lower angle, as it has done recently. The latter is more likely than the former.

There remains considerable cash on the sidelines – nearly $3.5 trillion in dry powder. That cash has to land somewhere. The return on bonds is negative at this point when inflation is considered.

There is an asset class that has the potential to explode higher. It is commodities (DBA and DBC). Even gold, silver, and gold stocks are on my radar. If money managers even made a small allocation to these areas, they would move as fast and parabolically as stocks. What else makes sense with inflation seemingly climbing unabated?

If I have a major concern, it is the fact that the dollar and bonds are rising together. This supports the crash crowd and their arguments. Normally, bonds and the dollar counter each other. Rising bonds mean falling interest rates. Why would investors buy the dollar when U.S. rates are declining unless it is a “fear’ trade? China still has significant economic problems, particularly in its real estate sector, which could become contagious. Global tensions with China remain high.

Trading Strategies

Swing traders should maintain high cash positions until the next dip and consider allocating to mining stocks and commodities (e.g. the DBA or DBC ETFs). Day traders can use Friday’s low at 4667.50 as a threshold. Any acceptance below that level, say on the hourly charts, supports some corrective action.

The market structure underneath current levels remains poor. There are so many virgin points of control. I cannot count that high. If we get through 4700, so be it. But if 4667.50 fails, we could get back to the virgin Point of Control at 4613 rather quickly.

There is nothing in Globex to guide as at the open. So more reliable trades should develop later rather than earlier.

A.F. Thornton

The market liked the October jobs report that came out this morning, so the blow-off run continues (until it doesn’t). We will open with a 20-point gap on inventory that is balanced to net long, with a new overnight high achieved in the Globex session. That usually means a tradable fade at the open, but the word “usually” is rapidly leaving the trading lexicon these days.

There is the potential for early fade per Gap Rules. As always, how the market handles the Gap is good market-generated information for the rest of the day. The former weekly channel top, which sits at the next roundie at 4700, is the only potential resistance above us. Roundies generally provide resistance, too, at least in the short term. And we will blow through the 3-ATR top channel band, a sign of a powerful but equally overbought trend.

But the Weekly Expected Move high at 4675 or so could pull the market back down out of the clouds before options expiration at today’s close. Moreover, we have a discernable five waves completed on the daily chart, perhaps indicating that this first run off the October lows is near completion.

In a blow-off, climactic run, anything is possible. I always wonder who buys at these levels, but people must be required to buy. Either they got short too soon and are covering, or they buy as part of a Gamma spiral. As I pointed out yesterday, the structure below us is rickety, and traders may need a parachute when the market reverses lower.

Recall that the next dip of any significance, something of the 3% to 5% variety, is due in late November / early December. Then the Santa Clause rally comes due. Can anyone say S&P 500 5000? Only time will tell.

My eye is squarely on the Russell 2000 (IWM) for a pullback buy to continue its breakout from a nine-month base. As it is another Friday hugging the expected moves, I will bow out today.

Have a great weekend.

A.F. Thornton

11:18: 465.60 is support.

If they break below and start closing candles below 464.75 would be the next target on the southside…

Still back after lunchtime…

11:00: Good thing for Stocks on the Move…

SPY is in float mode as usual – for now…

Back after lunchtime…

10:38: No change, they’re floating…

Back as needed…

10:09: Note update to the numbers on BLL from Stocks on the Move…

Still back as needed.

10:04: Took a little while, but nice trade on QRVO.

W did the deal…

IBM did the dance in front of the number, price stuck there anyway…

Nice trades this morning while the tape was floating…

Back as needed…

9:58: Now that the S&P is within about 30 pts. from the next big phat round number, we consider it – on the table at some point…

By Friday’s close?

Possible.

What takes that off the table?

Getting back below the gap left open from yesterday down around 464.75.

9:53: No change, they’re just floating…

They’ll put in some kind of a morning pivot from somewhere…

9:37: 464.75 is the only spot of interest from a short term perspective…

Above is no mans land…

9:32: Quiet at thte open…

Patience for an opportunity to emerge…

8:30: We’ll let em’ go at the open while in float mode…

The focus is on Stocks that are moving and able to provide opportunity for the morning session…

In looking at the market this morning, I cannot help but be concerned about the blow-off, climactic, and parabolic nature of what I see in many stocks, sectors, and indices across the board. Keep in mind that in such circumstances, the structure underneath the market is unsound.

That means that when the market rises this fast, there is not enough volume at price to catch a fall. On a volume profile, you will see what I call a lot of “air pockets.” The market will tend to fall through these “gaps” in volume fast. I call those liquidation breaks on a five-minute chart. But on the daily chart, the ride is unpleasant if you are long, no matter what you name it.

I would be cautious in holding longer-term swing trades here until we get a good break and begin to repair some of the underlying structure. Repair means that we get some solid volume at these price levels to convince us that the institutions are interested.

Stay tuned,

A.F. Thornton

It was the trader’s choice yesterday. Did the market rally on the Fed’s decision to slow the monetary easing process? Has the battle against inflation finally begun? Or was the market cheering the blow to American Marxism and Communism as the result of Tuesday’s election results? Either way, the market looks both parabolic and climactic. We can ride it. But the liquidation break, when it comes, could be swift and unpleasant.

As measured by the Russell 2000 (IWM), small caps did, indeed, break out on decent volume. If the opportunity presents, buy the retest. Buy any pullback. Target double the 9-month trading range. The ISM manufacturing report came out strong yesterday – and we have the employment report tomorrow. But the risk-on nature of what a breakout in small caps represents is undeniable.

The measured move projected from the past several months S&P 500 trading range (September peak to October low) and the top of the old weekly channel give the S&P 500 an upside target of 4800. I would get off the escalator there, though it is hard to believe it will be a straight shot to the target. As I had suspected yesterday, the failure of the rising wedge to break lower was a WWSHD contrary signal.

Overnight traders were unable to press the downside much, if any. This leaves overnight inventory net long, but we are slated to gap open, if ever so slightly. Small gaps usually fill, and there could be some profit-taking on the overnight inventory at the open. Gap Rules are in play, but I could argue Spike Rules as well.

Use the overnight high at 4662.50 as the gateway to continue the blow-off rally, with the next roundie at 4700 as the near-term target. 4650 is the price to hold. Acceptance below that level on the hourly chart could spoil the fun.

I had some emergency travel arise yesterday, so I will continue to work on a macro presentation once I am settled in today.

A.F. Thornton

Today is Fed announcement day. It is unwise to day-trade today unless you have a specific strategy that centers around the Fed decision. So I am refraining from announcing key levels, except that a sell-off for a few days is likely to follow on any day where we close below the previous day’s low. For sure, though, 4600 is a crucial support level on the daily chart and should hold unless a more extensive correction gets underway. Also, the nominal 40-day cycle dip is on the docket soon, though it may be mild in the context of the current rally and positive seasonality.

This year, the market rallied into the Fed meetings, and a few sessions beyond, before correcting a few days. What is unusual about this Fed meeting is that the market expects the governors to throttle back on bond purchases (Quantitative Easing). That is equivalent to a mild tightening. So why has the market rallied this time?

The most logical expectation is that the economy is slowing, the yield curve is inverting, and that should take the pressure of the Fed, interest rates, and inflation. The Fed’s potential action also is considered anti-inflationary. Inflation may very well be the greatest threat on the economy’s table.

In short, the Fed does not need to do anything dramatic today and has a runway to unwind some of its easy policies. Only time will tell. Success requires a delicate balance – a slowing economy that doesn’t slip into a recession. We used to call this Goldilocks from the famous fable – not too hot and not too cold.

What has been interesting to watch are the four major indices. The Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, and Russell 2000 have been vying for leadership off the early October lows like a good horse race. Uncertainty in the direction of interest rates has contributed to this contest for leadership. Rates drive sector rotation, and investors/traders have been understandably indecisive in picking the winners.

Keep your eye on the Russell 2000 (IWM) as it is on the verge of a breakout from the nine-month base. That could be very powerful should the breakout materialize. The Russell, Financials (XLF), Energy, Dow, and other cyclicals will benefit from mildly rising interest rates. Technology typically lags in such an environment.

From the bigger picture, note the rising wedges on the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 daily charts. Normally, that means a dip ahead. The market has been strong, and not all patterns have followed through successfully and reliably. Nevertheless, note the rising wedge pattern in your narrative. As set forth above, the nominal 40-day cycle dip is due any time and, in an ideal world, would result in a few days of weakness into early next week. A break of the wedge would get the ball rolling.

Expect a balancing market into the Fed meeting. After the Fed announcement or later this evening, I will publish a “View from the Top” macro perspective.

A.F. Thornton

1:47: The market is in a holding pattern…

If she moves and creates an opportunity before the end of the day (with enough time left on the clock…), I will comment accordingly

Otherwise, if she doesn’t move…

We’ll see you in the video tonight…

1:36: As for the SPY…

directionless floater on light volume – still…

1:35: A word on the Transports…

We all see the crazy move the Avis had – doubled in a day…

Hard to believe, but it does seem to be the culprit for the move higher in the index.

However, if you look at IYT which is the exchange-traded fund that tracks the index, it’s a real representation of what the transports are doing…

Translation, the index has a flaw that will now be addressed.

You’ll hear about (or not hear about it) in the next day or so…

12:55: Update…

No man’s land, waiting on the Fed…

A floater with the trend on all time frames is the dominant thing…

Just sayin’

Back as needed…

10:50: Not much to comment on in terms of the SPY…

They’re in no man’s land around 461.50…

Just floating…

Back after lunchtime…

10:32: After an hour we’ve got about 10 million shares traded in the SPY which is on the lighter side of very light…

They’re floating in a chop shop formation…

Waiting on the Kabuki….

Back as needed…

10:17: 460.73 against the support at 460.75 and the bounce…

Funny how that works…

10:08: Of note…

The transports are up over 5%.

Looking at the individual components, they’re not up like that….

Interesting for now….

10:07: 461.43 high so far against 461.50.

Remember – 460.75 is the short-term pivot or line in the sand for higher or lower prices…

10:02: From a very short-term perspective, 460.75 is support.

Below that and the door opens for 460 give or take…

It’s quiet and they’re floating until they find a morning pivot…

460.50 is a pretty good spot….

9:50: It’s not easy in no man’s land, but from where I sit, they’ll likely get to 461.50 give or take…

9:42: Around and at new highs is no man’s land…

We just let the SPY go until she shows a storyline…

9:37: SPY just pushing a little, but it’s very light volume and no conviction…

They’ll go back and forth…

460.75 was the official completion of the inverse from the video…

Of note…

9:33: So far, nice trade on MOS…

SPY quiet…

9:00: The pre-market activity has been rather quiet…

“Waiting on Kabuki?”

We come with no preconceived notion. Instead, I have an open mind for whatever Mrs. Market wishes to provide…

We’ll let em’ go to get a handle on the early storyline…

Look for the trading range between 4690 and 4720 to maintain in the next few sessions. Overnight inventory is net short, so that we might see a brief short-covering rally at the open. And yesterday’s price action did not get too far above Friday, with value (where 70% of the volume occurred) overlapping Friday’s volume.

In simple terms, the market slowed down a bit near the roundie (4600). This behavior is not necessarily negative nor unexpected. The Fed meeting starts today, and the announcement on interest rates and whether the Fed continues their bond-buying program (Quantitative Easing) comes tomorrow afternoon.

Perhaps a bit surprising to me is that the market has rallied hard into the meeting and announcement. The consensus expects the Fed to leave rates alone but announce a tapering of the Quantitative Easing program. Normally that would be negative for the markets. One must believe that the insiders know that the Fed will not change its policies, or the market likes the news. Another possibility is that evidence of a slowing economy takes the pressure off the Fed in the short term. So the party might go on for a couple of more hours. Who knows?

Otherwise, this is a good area to pause. We have achieved all of my original targets from the October low. So the upside is blue sky and somewhat undefended.

The first gateway to the north is the overnight high at 4610, which opens the door to yesterday’s high at 4612.75. Finally, 4619.75 is the Globex high from Sunday night. Conquer that, and happy days are here again.

I get a bit more nervous if we give up the roundie at 4600. That level is the true battle here. We have double POCs right below that level which should provide support. If they don’t, I think the idea of a sell-off for a couple of days becomes realistic. I will be using yesterday’s regular session low at 4586.50 as the line in the sand today. I will be short-term bearish below that line.

A.F. Thornton