Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 7/20/2022 Jul 20, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:Sorry to be running a little late from the live show this morning. I am learning that this is all a lot to pack in before the New York Open, especially when I am on the West Coast and have to get up in the middle of the night to meet all the deadlines.The good news is that the scenario I had been forecasting since the June 17th low at 3639 has finally come to fruition – or perhaps better said, the forecast has been confirmed.While Monday’s action nearly fooled me, we hung in there and got a 25% position in SPY August monthly calls on the Gap and Go trade per Gap Rules live in the trading room yesterday morning.Consider joining us. While the past does not necessarily predict the future, we notably realized 20 points in futures trading in the room yesterday that we closed out and booked before the end of the day. And that is in addition to our SPY calls, which continue to build gains from our entry.Twenty points in the Emini is $1,000, significantly more than the $297 monthly subscription costs. Since we started the room two weeks ago, we have achieved several thousand dollars in gains using both S&P 500 futures (micros and minis).But the most important issue on the table now is that yesterday confirmed that the important 40-week intermediate cycle low is the suspected 6/17 at 3639. We now have a projection up to 4200 or so.However, the futures encountered the WEM high at 3964 overnight, which may dampen further gains through weekly expiration on Friday.But once we get through the overnight high, just above the level we enter the previous capitulation, Rocket Pocket. All else being equal, I expect the market to fly through that zone – roughly beginning at 3986 and ending at 4042. The next major resistance we will encounter sits at 4062.The Weekly Expected Move high may cause some backing and filling, leaving the big move for next week. There is a 70% probability that the 4064 WEM high will hold for the week, but we need to let the market guide us by carefully monitoring the auction. At the very least, we are back to the “buy the dip” mode.Note that we have a daily and weekly bullish pivot now on tap.Also, every major near-term moving average has now been conquered, including the 5-week and the 5, 21, and 50–day lines. All of these moving averages should now provide support. We will look to the 5-day line as our trailing stop on our SPY calls.Note that the index broke above the 6-month opening range line at 3922. The level should now provide support, and any move back inside the range is negative for the rest of the year.And by the way, we crossed instead of kissed on the moving average front – another major accomplishment for this market.I covered all this with charts in this morning’s live notes linked above.Let’s enjoy some positive gains while they last. There is a Fed meeting in two weeks, and the consternation may return ahead of the date.A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Share with Friends and FamilyWord of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes -7/19/2022 Jul 19, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning: It is best to refer to yesterday’s discussion for key levels and targets, as not much has changed. Everything seemed fine as the market traveled north to grandmother’s house yesterday, but then… They closed the gates at the brick wall – 3805-3830. And so it remains the obstacle to conquer. How do they coordinate this? I often wonder. As the market hit 3905, Apple came out with their earnings warning {along with Russia announcing their “Force Majure” contract termination cutting Germany off from future energy). It is like they were waiting to block and tackle yesterday. And on the other side, the Fed’s plunge protection team seemingly picked up the rear guard. It was almost as if the spin backward was as well-timed as a ballet and so was the rescue. And the triangle now formed on the daily chart is normally a “2” or a “4” continuation wave pattern – rarely a bottoming formation – but the news anomolies make the pattern somewhat contrived. And the pattern forces us to consider the possibility of one last down thrust before this particular “leg” of the bear completes. We believed that the down leg completed at the June 17th low.But a retest assumes the “powers that be” affirmatively derailed yesterday’s rally attempt. It might only have been briefly interrupted by the news, and could resume its course today. And the truth is nobody knows for sure, but a retest of the June 17th 3639 low is at least on the table, and that has not been my preferred view up through yesterday.. And if you project a “measured move” from the 3850 triangle apex (about 180 points), you can forecast a move to 3670 – slightly higher than the June low. But if the rally resumes – you can also project north to 4030 – up and through the air pocket discussed yesterday. Meanwhile, Gap Rules are in order this morning – so apply them, and we will see how it goes. As per this morning’s live show, We will be in the Trading Room about 30-minutes after the Open. AF. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 7/18/2022 Jul 18, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - Daily Candles with Navigator Algo Buy and Sell Signals Good Morning:Like thieves in the night, our Asian and European cousins were buying like crazy from last night’s Globex Open and never looked back.The S&P 500 Futures are already up 37 points this morning, almost a full percentage point and slated to Gap Open in New York at this writing.Gap rules will apply if the rally continues. Click on the Chart above for the Algo dashboard. A third buy alert could paint depending on whether today’s candle closes above the Algo trigger.I find it better to use the 2-hour chart to take Algo Buy signals against the trend, and it has been supportive since Thursday. The overnight buying follows on the heels of something I mentioned Friday morning – the market stopped declining on bad news.Normally, this behavior would be a sign that the sellers are exhausted short term.I remain cautious, however, as nearly $1.4 trillion in notional options expired Friday, and dealers will continue to adjust their books this morning. I thought it better to wait for the options’ influence to wane before drawing any definitive conclusions. Expiration could have propped the market up – fooling us into thinking that bad news is good news.Moreover, the market is at a proverbial brick wall.While the S&P 500 Index is trading above the 21 and 5-day lines in Globex (it closed on the lines Friday), it is now facing the recent downtrend line, the 50-day line, a lot of higher time frame moving averages and the highest volume node in the neighborhood at 3910-3930 or so. S&P 500 Continuous Index Futures - Macro Volume Profile Map And with a convergence of multiple moving averages in the same zone, I raise the question as to whether all of these averages will kiss or cross, the latter being supportive of the rally. Kissing is what the averages tend to do in a bear. This daily chart of the S&P 500 Futures highlights the resistance to further advance ahead. So here is my love letter to the bulls:You came this far; will you turn south from the top of the hill? Ridiculous!Precedence permits a retracement to 4150 in this period – 7-8 months after a bear is underway.That 6/17 low came on a rigorous, relentless, gapping down move – a mini-capitulation by any other name. The 6/17 low is important and marks the low of the 40-week cycle. Can’t you put a little gas in the tank before the left translation?And you don’t care about bad news anymore.Hey, you took the five and 21-day lines; what is a 50-day line among friends?You will have to conquer these lines someday; why not now?You have a Rocket Pocket on the other side of the hill, and you can rest then…And to the bears…You suckered them in during July seasonality – trap the bulls, then dump them!That 200-week line at 3525 is calling you! This bear is the most fun you have had in years! Don’t stop now. Even if you feel sorry for the bears, remember how unmerciful the bulls have been since the Covid Crash!Just one more thin mint – one more leg to crush the bulls! Take them up just a little bit, then wack-a-mole. S&P 500 Continuous Index Futures 15-Minute Chart- Today's Sandbox Try not to get dizzy looking at this week’s and today’s sandbox. There is a lot of stuff on our windshield this week.But keep it simple – we either get through this resistance or not. If so, we head towards 4000. If not, we will head towards 3500.The only way I know to monitor this is to watch the auction as it develops in real time – it will tell you whether prices are being accepted or rejected in the zones.The options / Gamma strikes are unusually compacted this week, so there is not much to glean there except that the Volatility Trigger is at 3850 – and below that, selling pressure and volatility intensify.As you know, I have been expecting the market to resolve higher since the June 17th low. We have captured some nice, short-term gains on the rally attempts.I am still ever so incrementally bullish on a retracement north and up to 4000, but willing to change my mind. And the market has been trying to find its footing. Nevertheless, the cardinal rule has not changed. Traders and investors should resolve all doubts in favor of the existing trend – which is bearish. Experts I respect are extremely concerned about domestic and world events.But connecting current events to the market is a fool’s game. The market looks ahead. Whatever is coming out now, regardless of what it is – news, interest rates, and global events – is already baked into the indexes.Good luck today, and be patient. If we pay attention, the market will tell us what it wants to do.Watch today’s video for more detail on how I set up the week and built the charts above. I will have the footage polished and out in a few hours.A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 7/15/2022 Jul 15, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning, We have to get through the day relatively unscathed, but if so then the market survived another rough week by any measure. And where the market stands at this writing after the past three weeks is somewhat remarkable. Think about it – 9% Consumer Inflation Wednesday, 11% Wholesale Inflation yesterday, and JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley disappointing on the earnings front. This should have made the crash crowd giddy and rewarded them. Yet we are almost a month out from the 6/17 low (3639) on the futures and the market cannot seem to get near it. What do we see? The lows for the last three weeks have held around 3750. And they barely ran the stops under last week’s low on the weekly chart before bringing the market back into range. The week isn’t over, but traders cannot even seem to get a full retest of the 6/17 low at 3639. And the market seemingly has stopped selling off on bad news. When a market stops declining on bad news, one could argue that the sellers are exhausted, and perhaps we will get some follow-through on this latest rally attempt. We have more earnings before the bell today, so I won’t count my chickens before they hatch, but how this market is handling a lot of bad news is encouraging. Of course, Fed intervention could be keeping the market decline orderly – as they don’t desire a crash either. Today is both monthly and weekly expiration. Don’t forget the WEM low sitting up around 3818 on the futures. It could be a magnet. Dealers have almost brought the market back to the level already, after teasing the low 3700s mid-week. That always amazes me. As monthly and weekly options expire today, the market has priced in a wide birth of plus or minus 60 points from yesterday’s settlement at 3793.25. So that gives you a daily sandbox range from 3733 up to 3853. Of course, I rarely day trade on Monthly expiration days. The market could easily pin near 3800 or any other level in 25-point increments and chop in a tight range all day to get through expiration. When you boil it all down, and it is a wide birth, but the market has strong overhead resistance at 3900, seems fairly priced at 3800, and has strong support at 3700. And while participation in yesterday’s recovery was narrow, I was still impressed with the market’s resilience. Notably though, the Navigator Algorithm closed under the sell trigger for the second day in a row. The current daily chart pattern remains ambiguous and unresolved, and the bears still have the football. But they may fumble it here. This current rally attempt could still be the more significant rally we have been expecting, analogous to the same time in the 2000-2003 bear. I will cover all this Sunday night live on YouTube at 7 pm EST. I will post the video here later that night. In the meantime, I am sitting out today but will notify you of anything material if it were to develop. Our illustrious leaders bring us closer to Nuclear War every day, so a few wildcards are floating around. Use your stops if you go long. Pre-market we have Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence, and NY Fed Manuafacturing reports. Some Fed Governors speak right after the market opens to keep the morning interesting. Recall that there is now speculation about a full 1% rate hike at the next Fed meeting on July 25th. The Fed tried to talk that rumor down yesterday, which turned the market back north after it struggled in the morning..The market took out yesterday’s high in Globex, so that could mean that a formal pivot higher is on the table. A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 7/14/2022 Jul 14, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:It has been a rough week, as expected. Historic inflation and the 15th month of declining real wages topped yesterday’s CPI report.Even in the 1970s, at least real wages were rising in the face of rampant inflation!The S&P 500 came back up to the WEM low yesterday just to let the dealers and market makers escape before Friday’s expiration. After they were done unwinding their hedges, the market rolled over again in the afternoon. Depending on the wholesale inflation report this morning, as well as JP Morgan’s earnings report, we may test the June 17th low at 3639.I continue to believe, based on the rapid decelaration in most commodity prices, that inflation has peaked in the short term, and the greater concern now shifts to recession and corporate earnings. We will begin to get a clue from the financial sector today with JP Morgan Chase.Predictions are tough at the moment, we simply need to get aligned with the market every day and go with the flow. We will be in the trading room today about 30 minutes after the open. The DEM is roughly 60 points plus or minus yesterday’s settlement at 3804.50. We may gap down to that level as we did yesterday, and then recover or not depending on those pre-market reports. Gap Rules will be applicable on a True Gap.Don’t forget that monthly and weekly options expiration are tomorrow. It has been rare to rally into expiration over the past year. so you may want to sit the market out until next week.These very avoidable inflation numbers make me sick to my stomach.I am feeling a rant rising in my blood…This morning we get the wholesale inflation numbers (PPI report), and the consensus is now 10.1%.This telegraphs EARLY stage price increases. Two results will follow – higher consumer prices a few months from now and/or reduced corporate earnings if companies eat the higher prices.As mentioned above, we hear about earnings and forward guidance from Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan Chase this morning and more banks next week. The Chase report should be interesting when combined with wholesale inflation.The inflation umbers reflect a U.S. Government run amock, and the abject failure of the left’s Modern Monetary Theory (the latest version of “This Time It’s Different.”The rant is building…I don’t know why we have to go through this self-flagellation every so often and put the authoritarian communists in charge (though I am not sure it was our choice this round).And in any event. it does not seem to matter any longer whether there is a “D” or an “R” after their names, with few exceptions. They are all in on it.Nothing will be the same until we purge this octogenarian group of government grifters and their thieving cronies. Theycontinually rob our treasury like the proverbial fox in charge of the hen house. All we will have left is an economic collapse.No worries though, Klaus and the WEFstand by to rescue us from the collapse with their “Great Reset.” Remember, “You Will Own Nothing and Be Happy.” Isn’t that typical leftist projection? Whatever the left says, the opposite is true. How about, “We Will Own Everything, and We Will be Happy.” Isn’t that the truth of the Great Reset, Klaus Schwab? Or should I call you by your real name, “Goldfinger” or “Jabba the Hut?” And I should refrain from saying, “I told you so,” but I did earlier this year. In my latest episode of “Can You Believe It!” – wait for it – Janet Yellen proposed price controls yesterday.Remember how that worked in the 1970s? It made everything worse, as price controls always do. But hey, it will work for Janet this time because she is smarter, right?As I always say, Economics’s four most dangerous words are “this time it’s different. “It’s never different. Leftist and Communist policies never work. And they will never work. The policies are the antithesis of human nature.Anyway, it likely is an insult to attribute the current regime’s policies to Communism or Collectivism.This regime is into pure, straight-up, authoritarian rule along the lines of the Chinese Communist Party model. Pelosi, Shumer, McConnell and the rest are seethingly jealous of the Chinese model and cannot wait to implement it here. Maybe they will buy a franchise from the CCP?The Chinese are not communists either, at least as Marx originally proposed. They are a criminal enterprize of dictators.And now the full rant…But we have a free press, right? That proverbial “fourth” pillar or branch of a democracy? How is that working? As Zero Hedge points out this morning – and it was what triggered my rant – not so well. But you already know this. If not, let me stimulate your memory:The border agents whipped illegal immigrants. The media, Justice Department, and other Democrats knew this was a lie from day one but didn’t care.Women are going to die because abortion is limited or prevented. This is a despicable lie meant to scare everyone. Not one state that restricts abortion prevents the termination of a pregnancy when the mother’s life is in danger.What the Supreme Court did was unconstitutional. This is pure B.S. The court gave the lawmaking decision back to the legislative bodies where laws are supposed to be made. The court that ruled in 1973 committed the unconstitutional act when they essentially made up constitutional law with their Roe V Wade decision.The “Hands Up, Don’t Shoot Lie.” This lie was meant to gin up racial hate and division against white cops. How many cops have been injured or killed because so many in the media and others spread this lie? Hands up, don’t shoot, was built on a lie. And the design has been to rid law enforcement agencies and the military of Trump supporters and other conservatives. These were the last democratic institutions that the left had not infiltrated or controlled. Make no mistake, their coup is now complete. The left now controls every major institution in our country. Brace yourself.That January 6th was an armed insurrection. The FBI determined it wasn’t planned or organized, and no arms were confiscated. The media and other Democrats show how dishonest they are when they refuse to show that Trump said, “March peacefully and patriotically.” That clearly shows that he did not want or encourage violence. The goal of the hearings and reporting is not to get to the truth, it is purely political to destroy Trump. Make no mistake, Trump will be indicted, arrested, and charged by this corrupt Biden Justice Department with Merrick Garland in charge. Remember him? Going after parents at school board meetings as domestic terrorists? Also, he was Obama’s Supreme Court nominee passed over by Trump. Revenge is sweet, right?That the 2020 election was pure as the driven snow. The media and other Democrats know that many states intentionally violated election laws and that Mark Zuckerberg’s money violated laws but don’t care. Breaking: Special Counsel Finds Mark Zuckerberg’s Election Money Violated Wisconsin Bribery Laws. Have you seen the documentary 2000 Mules yet? If you want to immediately recognize a leftist lie, spot the repetitive mantra. “The safest and most secure election in U.S. history.” How many times and from how many different voices did you hear that phrase? They doth protest too much…The Antifa and BLM riots were mostly peaceful. You have to admit, it took a lot of gall for the CNN reporter to repeat the mantra as the town was burning in the background. This regime is so full of itself and believes that we are so stupid that they will lie to our faces and tell us we are not seeing what is obvious.That the U.S has always been a racist country, that all whites are racist and privileged, and that all other races are oppressed. The main people in this country obsessed with race and racism are the people trying to divide and conquer us using Marxist tactics and tribal identities. Ultimately, it won’t work in America because, by and large, we are a melting pot and not racist. Nice try!That the vaccines will prevent the virus. The media sought to silence anyone who disagreed with the false narrative.That the CDC based everything on science. There was no science that showed masks worked, that we needed six feet of social distancing, that Plexiglas prevented spread, and that schools and other businesses should be closed, but facts didn’t matter. When Trump and others suggested the Wuhan lab was the source of the virus, the media buried the story on behalf of Dr. Fauci by calling it a disproven conspiracy. How many people may have died from this or a future pandemic because investigations were delayed? It is estimated that more than 50 million men in this country now have undiagnosed myocarditis due to these vaccines. How much evidence has alrready been suppressed or destroyed?The media spread the conspiracy theory that Trump colluded with Russia for years as they conspired with Democrats to destroy Trump despite zero evidence. There were endless investigations. If we all end up dying in a Nuclear War, the seeds of that war were planted by Crooked Hillary and her minions as they sought regime change in Russia through Ukraine and ruined our relations with them. What many people don’t know is that a young Vladamir Putin was a Klaus Schwab protoge (in the same class with Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, and Netherlands President Mark Ruffi) who rejected the Great Reset. The proverbial prodigal son. He opposed the Great Reset, just like China, so both Countries need regime change (per the WEF). It is no more complicated than that.The media and other Democrats repeatedly lied that Trump never denounced white supremacists even though he did it many times. They repeated the lie to gin up racial hate and division as they always pretend they are for uniting the country. Trump denounced white supremacy ’38 times’ in campaign videos amid Biden-Harris criticisms.That the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. They made this up to bury the story before the election as they campaigned for Biden. Hunter Biden is a disgusting human being (and the apple does not fall too far from the Pedo Peter tree). All of the leftist ex-government and intelligence agency officials who signed the letter to the New York times backing the false narrative should be stripped of their government security clearances, retirement benefits and tried for treason. In any event, if the people ever get control of this government again, there is the a great list of officials that need to be sent to jail – preferably the one illegally holding J6 protesters.That the science is settled that humans, fossil fuels, and CO2 cause warming. There is not one piece of scientific data from the last 150 years that supports this theory, only easily manipulated computer models that have always been wrong. Premised entirely upon an unsubstantiated “existential climate change threat,” America is already paying huge penalties, as record gasoline and diesel prices are rippling through every corner of business and driving up food and commodity costs with devastating 8.6% four-decade- high inflation.Bear in mind again, that all such unnecessary grief was founded upon enormously speculative hypothetical climate models and hysterical worst-case doom projections which appear far off track from reality.Although Planet Earth continues to warm its way in fits-and-starts out of the Ice Age that ended about 12,000 years ago, it was just as warm 2,000 years ago and again 1,000 years ago — long before the Industrial Revolution introduced smokestacks and SUVs.Economies all over the world are now on the verge of collapse and Western Democracies have surrendered their national security to this corrupt, Green Energy boondoggle. But it is heads the leftists win and tails we the people lose. The collapse allows for the “Great Reset” where you will be micro-managed to a level that you will be told and monitored as to how often you can wash your jeans each week. And, if you dont comply, your washing machine will rat you out. I kid you not! That Trump’s tax rate cuts cost the country trillions. This lie is continually repeated even though government revenues have risen substantially with lower rates That Obamacare would not take away choice and would reduce costs. How is that one working out for you? Obamacare was sold on a pack of lies. Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. Basically, call it the ‘stupidity of the American voter’ or whatever, but basically that was really, really critical to getting the thing to pass. First, the bill’s authors manipulated the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which issues gold-standard cost estimates of any legislative proposal: This bill was written in a tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes. Why? Because if CBO scored the mandate as taxes, the bill would have been dead on arrival. Remember the Pelosi mantra? Pass the bill, you can read it later. That Trump was putting kids in cages at the border when the pictures were from Obama/Biden years. This lie was meant to gin up racial division and hate. That the Obama and Biden justice Dept were apolitical. That no one is above the law. We have continually been told how scandal free the Obama/Biden administration was. What a joke: Obamacare lies. Fast and Furious lies. IRS targeting. Hillary’s illegal server and kickbacks. Kickbacks of billions of taxpayer dollars to Iran tyrants. Dictatorially ordering the Justice Department to stop an investigation into drug running by terrorists to appease Iran. How many people have died from drug overdoses and terrorism because Obama was more interested in pleasing Iran tyrants than stopping criminals? Slush funds at CFPB, Justice, and EPA, where they shook down corporations to give kickbacks to left-wing supporters.And the biggest scandal of my lifetime that dwarfs Watergate: The Obama/Biden Administration used government personnel and taxpayer money to destroy Trump based on the fictional dossier from a foreign national which was paid for by the DNC and Hillary. Sadly, the media, instead of holding the corrupt Obama administration to account, participated in spreading disinformation. They are puppets. And don’t forget how this has impacted Ukraine’s current conflict, which is rapidly leading the world into Nuclear War. Besides indoctrinating the public with intentional lies, the media buries truthful stories that would harm the politicians and policies they support. The media knows how corrupt the Bidens and Clintons are but continue to bury the stories. They know how disastrous the border is but don’t care. They never cared about all the women the Clintons physically and mentally abused and sought to destroy. The media even buried stories about Jeff Epstein to protect the powerful. Where is the f’ing list? Where are the home movies? Every Epstein home had cameras in every room. Nobody in the press even asks the questions. Do you know where the movies and lists are? In the hands of the U.S. Intelligence agencies to be used any time one of these powerful pedophiles gets out of line. How many women and young girls have been physically and mentally abused for years because the media has been in the tank? Leaked tape: ABC News killed an interview with an accuser of Jeffrey Epstein.And I will refrain from saying “I told you so,” but I did earlier this year. In the latest episode of “Can You Believe It!” – wait for it – Janet Yellen proposed price controls yesterday. We know what happens. As I always say, the four most dangerous words world words in economics are this time it’s different. It’s never different. Leftist and Communist policies never work, period. They don’t work now. And they will never work. A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Share with Friends and FamilyWord of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn
Latest Stock Market Forecast Interim Alert – 7/13/2022 Jul 13, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Today is another great time to refresh your memory about the Fourth Turning. The video above is Tony Robbins interviewing the surviving author, Neil Howe. It is well worth your time if you really want to understand what we are currently experiencing.We may get a full retest of the June 17th low. The pre-market is not pleased with the CPI report and the bears have the ball for now. A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 7/13/2022 Jul 13, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:This morning, I am a little under the weather as I have caught a summer cold.I will be grabbing some rest on this otherwise volatile CPI report day.The street already expects the headline number to be bad.And with commodity prices from Oil to Copper crashing for the last few weeks, the headline number is stale anyway.Inflation has peaked – at least short term. Earnings and recession are now the focus of the Alka-Seltzer crowd.A spike low down to 3400 or 3500 is possible on the report’s release.I would favor longs over shorts in such an event.A ton of cash on the sidelines could easily chase the markets higher if FOMO kicks in.We still have monthly options expiration weighing on the markets through Friday, which might hold any meaningful rally back until next week.And, of course, there are those exogenous global events such as Nuclear War to consider.The WEM low at 3833 drew the market back up overnight and will be a key magnet through Friday. Any sustained trading below 3800 will make the dealers start hedging their WEM low level and exaggerate losses.We have a plus or minus 60 points expected move on the day.My advice is to sit this out, let the market settle in, and then get aligned with the positive or negative trend.Suppose we get a spike, panic low. I will send out an alert if I see a bottom. If we get a panic rally, I will do the same.And we still have to traverse the wholesale inflation number tomorrow.As always, good luck and stay tuned.A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 7/11/2022 Jul 11, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:Futures are weak overnight as we continue in the ambiguous triangle pattern on the daily chart. We took out Friday’s low overnight, which is never a good sign. We have managed to return back inside Friday’s range, with 3877 the short-term resistance for now.I am slightly favoring an upside breakout up to 4050 and even 4150 because we are coming off the Nominal 20-week cycle low. It is a close call, and I am prepared to go either direction.There is a consortium of multiple time frame moving averages, as well as the high volume node just above 3900 that continues to be a hurdle to higher prices. If we can get above them, then the levels will provide support, at least for a time.The Weekly Expected Move range is 3833 – 4000, with today’s range set from 3850-3950.There is still the potential to open with a true gap down, though it seems less likely now. If so, apply GAP Rules.A stubbornly high U.S. Dollar remains a wildcard. It puts pressure on emerging market debt, and may impact corporate earnings.A new and developing “Midterm Covid Strain” has emerged which is supposedly more contagious and unpleasant than any prior strain. I call it the “Midterm” strain because I have been waiting to see what the Globalists will come up with to either scratch or make it easier to cheat in the U.S. midterm elections to keep their Manchurian Candidates in office. Earnings will take center stage next week starting with banks and other financials.Red Letter issues today are Fed Gov Williams speaking at 2 pm EST and some T-bill Auctions.The June inflation numbers, consumer confidence, and retail sales will come out later in the week and keep market participants guessing.There are orders in the book underneath the market, so there are plenty of buyers this morning. It is nice to see the book filling up again.We sold the other 25% call position Friday when the futures reached 3920.50. So the Swing Strategy is back to cash for now.Have a great Monday!A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Sunday Night Live – Building Your Daily/Weekly Sandbox – 7/11/2022 Jul 11, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment