Archives 2022

Founder's Trading Journal

Afternoon Notes – 6/28/2022

AF Thornton 0 Comment

Good Afternoon:

  • Today was a disappointment. Despite my best hopes, the market rejected the price at the key inflection point I have discussed this week, between 3900 and 3920.
  • And the daily bar shows a preliminary trend reversal as the market closed well below yesterday’s low.
  • The Navigator Swing Strategy stopped live in the trading room today for a 100-point (S&P 500) gain from last Thursday’s entry.
  • Today was our first trading day in the room. We took a successful short trade off the opening range trade.
  • After that, we shorted a couple of bounces successfully, And then we had one minor loss going long from the daily 21 (mean).
  • We will be back in the room on Thursday morning.
  • Today’s action was somewhat ominous, negated Friday’s follow-through day, and could result in a full retest of the June low.
  • I will have more to say in the morning after I have a chance to review everything.
  • Guess what? It is still a bear market.
  • Stay lean, mean, and flexible.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Morning Notes – 6/28/2022

AF Thornton 0 Comment
This is a chart of the S&P 500 INdex Futures with Today's Key Levels Marked
This is a chart of the S&P 500 INdex Futures with Today's Key Levels Marked
  • Our working thesis is that the first Bear leg (1-down) is complete at the June low and is a leading diagonal much like the start of the 2008-2009 Bear.
  • The S&P 500 is likely to retrace 50% (4150) to 61.8% (4338) of the January to June decline in a (2-up) wave retracement. Again, the 2008-2009 Bear is the best analogy.
  • Be sure to look at the Current Stock Market Thesis, which is a complete analysis of the Big Picture.
  • This retracement rally aligns with the seasonally strong summer rally period, quarterly rebalancing, and monthly options expiration (Thursday).
  • This week, the WEM Sandbox is 3815 to 4015 – Today, the DEM Sandbox is 3855 to 3965.
  • The Navigator Algorithm gave a new buy signal on the daily chart at last Thursday’s close or 3888.75.
  • The short-term trend and context is up. For the most part, we want to look for long trades this week on pullbacks as long as the rally prevails.
  • But we are still in a bear market in the intermediate trend and trading right on the Volatility Trigger at 3902.
  • Below the Volatility Trigger, we are in a negative gamma regime – dealers still must sell into declines and buy into rallies, exacerbating and lengthening the move in both directions.
  • Above 3902, Dealers will sell rallies and buy declines, reducing volatility and resulting in “mean reversion” price behavior.
  • The key inflection point today and for the rest of this week’s sandbox is the super high-volume node and key cluster on the daily chart at 3900-3920. The node is a significant hurdle to conquer coming from either direction.
  • There are significant air pockets above and below the node, allowing the market to move freely (almost unobstructed) through the zones.
  • The 21-day line (mean) at 3902, last week and Friday’s high at 3920, the 50% retracement of the previous down leg at 3904, and the midpoint of June’s monthly bar all cluster here.
  • It would be short-term bullish if the market could stay above these levels, and we could look to them as support.
  • The opposite is also true. If this rally fails early, this is the level to push it back down.
  • The last few sessions appear to be forming a bullish flag on the daily chart. Overnight traders pressed the top and bottom of yesterday’s range, running the stops, and it looks like we will open towards the top of the range this morning.
  • If the rally fails here, the relatively minor support in the air pocket below is Friday’s POC at 3890, its midpoint at 3875, the 5-day line at 3856 (also the low volume node of the pocket), Friday’s breakup candle low at 3831, and then the WEM low at 3815.
  • Though ostensibly outside this week’s projected range, the air pocket ends at 3761, and the next super high-volume node on the daily chart is 3688.
  • My best judgment is that the market is more likely than not to use the bullish seasonal bias, together with the tailwinds associated with this Thursday’s month and quarter-end, to push up to the WEM high this week at 4015.
  • The scant resistance traveling north to the 4015 WEM high lies at the bottom of a gap around 3960, and the downtrend supply line from March at about 3995 (tracking close to the falling 50-day line). (See chart above).
  • The market has to move higher almost immediately to maintain the “V” reversal, or a retest of the June low will happen sooner rather than later.
  • The video from this morning’s live session is in editing and will be posted later today. I will be trading live in the Trading Room this morning for the first few hours of the session.

Good Luck Today!

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Morning Notes – 6/27/2022

AF Thornton 0 Comment
This is a daily regular session chart of the S&P 500 Index Futures with the Navigator Algorithm Signals and System Status.
This is a daily regular session chart of the S&P 500 Index Futures with the Navigator Algorithm Signals and System Status.

The Day and Week Ahead

Good Morning:

  • We had a good forum on YouTube Live last night, but the video recording did not come out well, so I deleted it. I am working on a solution – but I think I ran too many monitors, creating a feedback loop.
  • We will hold the first “live” version of Morning Notes on YouTube this morning from 8:30 to 9:00 am EST. The link to our YouTube Channel is here.
  • The first Bear leg (1-down) is complete – It is a leading diagonal much like the start of the 2008-2009 Bear Market.
  • The S&P 500 is now likely to retrace 50% (4150) to 61.8% (4338) of the January to June decline in a (2-up) wave retracement. Again, the 2008-2009 Bear is the best analogy.
  • Be sure to look at our current Market Thesis (to your right in the “Categories” menu) for a complete Big Picture analysis.
  • This retracement rally aligns with the seasonally strong summer rally period.
  • This week, the WEM Sandbox is 3815 to 4015 – Today, the DEM Sandbox is 3850 to 3975.
  • The Navigator Algorithm gave a new buy signal on the daily chart at last Thursday’s close or 3888.75. The short-term trend and context are up. For the most part, we want to look for long trades this week on pullbacks as long as the rally prevails.
  • But we are still in a bear market in the intermediate trend and trading on the volatility trigger at 3905.
  • Below the volatility trigger, dealers still must sell into declines and buy into rallies, exacerbating and lengthening the move in both directions.
  • Above 3905, Dealers will sell rallies and buy declines, reducing volatility and resulting in “mean reversion” price behavior.

Key Levels and Issues Today

  • The key inflection point today and for the rest of this week’s sandbox is the super high-volume node on the daily chart at 3910-3920. The node is a significant hurdle to conquer coming from either direction. There are substantial air pockets above and below the node, allowing the market to move quickly, regardless of the direction it chooses.
  • Coincidentally, the 21-day line (mean) at 3903 is close to the super high-volume node, as is last week and Friday’s high at 3920. It would be short-term bullish if the market could stay above these levels, and we could look to them as support. 
  • The opposite is true if this rally fails early, as this is the level to push it back down.
  • Overnight traders have already helped the bullish case, first testing 3895 but later besting Friday’s high (bullish) and trading as high as 3948. As a result, the S&P 500 could open with a True Gap higher. If so, Gap Rules are on the table.
  • If last week’s rally fails here, the relatively minor support in the air pocket below is Friday’s POC at 3890, its midpoint at 3875, the 5-day line at 3856 (also the low volume node of the pocket), Friday’s breakup candle low at 3831, and then the WEM low at 3815.
  • Though ostensibly outside this week’s projected range, the air pocket ends at 3761, and the next super high-volume node on the daily chart is 3688.
  • My best judgment – the market is likely to use the bullish seasonal bias and tailwinds associated with month and quarter-end to push up and through the air pocket into the WEM high this week at 4015.
  • Going north to the 4015 WEM high, the index will encounter resistance at the 3960 Gap bottom and the downtrend supply line from March at about 3995. The falling 50-day line tracks close to the downtrend line.
  • I am noting that there was still a lot of put buying on Friday and the options vaccum into 4000 is filling in. More and more 4000 looks like a realistic target, but it is getting harder to target anything above that level for now.

Red Letter Issues and Caution

  • We are still in a bear market until proven otherwise. So don’t hold any opinion too tightly.
  • Don’t forget that there are exogenous events all over the world that could rear up at any moment. Do not trade without stops.
  • Today, we have durable goods coming out pre-market and existing home sales about a half-hour after the market opens. Some European Central Bank speakers give presentations later in the day, but otherwise, today looks quiet on the home front.
  • Recall that Friday’s existing home sales report threw the market for a loop as it was much higher than anticipated. I was about to short a rising wedge when the news came out, and the market ripped higher. Be careful.
  • Friday was a range expansion day, and today could follow suit with scant resistance in the air pocket above us. The street has been quite short lately, and Money Manager FOMO leading into the end of the calendar quarter and monthly options expiration on Wednesday could provide tailwinds.
  • Nevertheless, contraction typically follows a large expansion day like Friday. Consolidation could lead to balanced, responsive trading in today’s RTH Session.
  • While I generally get all the information I need to know from the S&P 500 price action itself, Junk Bonds (HYG or JNK) can be a good leading indicator for stocks. I would shift my short-term stance to bearish if Junk Bonds fell to a new low on the hourly charts. Set an alert to keep track of this.
  • Crypto is still trading on thin ice and could cause market dislocation and contagion in a meltdown. Keep an eye on it.

It is nice to see some green on the screen for a change. Let’s enjoy it while it lasts. For all we know, the bottom could be in for a “cyclical” bear, and the market will march on to new highs. 

The truth is we don’t know. We never know. Our job is to read the tape and follow it wherever it leads.

A.F. Thornton

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Are You Serious About Learning to Trade? I Mean Really Serious? The Time is Now!

AF Thornton 0 Comment
  • Today is the first day of the rest of your life; what kind of life will it be? As the famous pastor and author Joel Olsteen often says, will you be a victim or a victor?
  • Learning to trade gives you and your family freedom to live on your terms – anywhere you want (or might need) to live. Why might that be important?
  • We can no longer live in denial. You see what is happening all around us. I am sure when I first mentioned things like the “World Economic Forum,” “Great Reset,” or “Fourth Turning,” it sounded a little out there. But now you realize I was right. Everything is at stake – our assets, values, way of life, and even freedom.
  • If you don’t see it yet – you can trust me that the WEF is bound and determined to drag us into war with Russia. Both Russia and China oppose the WEF’s Great Reset and its nonsense. So Russia and China’s leadership have to be eliminated – according to Davos anyway. 
  • The WEFs process to undermine Russia and accomplish regime change, led by George Soros, was well underway in Ukraine until Putin finally put his foot down. 
  • The Davos crowd and other U.S. Neocons have no problem sending our children and grandchildren into a war with these superpowers to achieve their ends. This is the first time in my life when I have heard discussions like – “well, you know a nuclear war is survivable.” Are you kidding me? Is that why Barrack Obama is building a bunker on his Martha’s Vineyard Estate?
  • Recently, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seized the bank accounts of the truckers opposing the mandatory vaccines in Canada. Not long after, he has now proposed to disarm all Canadians. Whose side do you think he is on?
  • If you don’t think that could happen here, think again. Have you heard about the Department of Homeland Security’s new “Disinformation Governance Board?” Even though they let the “Mary Poppins” like character Nina Jankowicz go after all of her partisan videos surfaced, the Board is alive and well, like something straight out of George Orwell’s 1984. 
  • The Board is already proposing Canada-inspired rules allowing banks, with or without the Department’s direction, to “freeze” bank accounts of so-called “purveyors of misinformation.” 
  • We all know what this means. Suppose you oppose the current regime, good luck with your assets. Is this how you want to live? Is this how you want your children and grandchildren to live?
  • And how about those vaccines?
  • Joe Biden isn’t finished. Do you know why he is not worried about the upcoming midterms? Read Molly Hemingway’s new article “Yes, Joe Biden is Hiding His Plan to Rig The 2022 Midterm Elections” in the Federalist. Molly is mainstream – she is no nut case. Is this the kind of country where we want all of our assets?
  • Say the wrong thing, speak out against the regime, and your bank accounts are frozen – not by the government but by a private bank. What do you do?
  • And wait until the government converts us to digital currencies. You and your family can be starving at the flip of a switch.
  • In less than 18 months under the Biden Administration, over 1.5 billion people have aligned against the U.S. and its Allies under the BRICS alignment (Brazil, Russia, India, China (PRC), and South Africa).
  • The BRICS’ sole aim is to challenge the current global order and U.S. hegemony. Understandably so!
  • Let’s face it; the West is a mess under Davos-influenced rule.
  • Down to the U.S. Military, we are allowing ourselves to drink the woke Kool-Aide – obsessed with nonsense like pronouns, gender, controlling the weather, adopting dark-age energy systems, and all manner of ridiculous political correctness. 
  • And It is almost unbelievable that our leaders have driven arch enemies Russia and China into a  new romance based on despising the West. That is quite an accomplishment. 
  • Our only prayer in the circumstances was to keep India on our side. Now we have lost them and Brazil to the new alignment.
  • In the meantime, Russia and China are staking their influence in our backyard (e.g., Mexico, Latin, and South America).
  • Friday, the BRICS countries announced a new global reserve currency backed by a basket of commodities, including gold, to compete with the U.S. Dollar.
  • It will take a long time to displace the U.S. Dollar, which is not inevitable, but the threat is real.
  • What would you rather own? A piece of paper and a promise from a corrupt and ideologically confused government with nearly $31 trillion in debt? How about Bitcoin (now down 60%) and backed by nothing? Doesn’t a BRICS collateralized currency make sense?
  • I could go on and on and have gone on long enough. The point is that you and your family need the freedom to choose where you will want to live out this period. 
  • Do you want to be stuck in a job? Maybe you shouldn’t have all your assets in one place. There are a lot of considerations.
  • In short, you don’t want to be a victim or be enslaved to a New World Order. So what is the answer?

Give Me The Time - And I Will Teach You How to Trade Anything and Enjoy All of the Benefits That Come with This Knowlege - Starting with the S&P 500 Index

We Will Build a Small and Exclusive Community of Like-Minded Traders and We Will Weather the Coming Storm Together
  • Admittedly, I am a bit of a geek. I started trading in my late teens. I have been trading and investing now as a professional for 35 years. 
  • I have read every book, made every mistake, washed-out accounts, and experienced all the ups and downs of life while I worked out nearly every bug until I perfected a swing-trading algorithm that consistently worked. I have made over $25 million sourced from that algorithm since 1987.
  • Branded as the Navigator Algorithm™,  you have seen that system return triple-digit annual percentage gains since we started this group in the fall of 2019. 
  • Since then, we have avoided the downdrafts of the March 2020 Covid Crash and recent Bear Market and have also taken advantage of them. 
  • The Navigator Swing Strategy signals have already achieved a 90%+ gain year-to-date. How many hedge funds, mutual funds, or money managers can make that claim, especially with this bear market?
  • But swing trading and the requirement to hold overnight positions are trickier in any bear market, including this one.
  • Over the past four years, my partner and I have been working on expanding the swing-trading system into the daytime frame and perfecting it. While the principles are the same as swing trading, the daytime frame is a lot noisier. 
  • It is like the difference between the scratchy AM band (Daytime Frame Trading) and quiet FM radio (swing-trading).
  • The March 2020 Covid Crash was somewhat easier to navigate than the current, slow-motion bear market. In the Covid crash, we had to get out in time and get back in. For the most part, we could then swing trade and hold for days, weeks, or even months at a time.
  • In the current bear market and volatility, it is not easy to sit tight, especially if you prefer to be long and not short the market. And that is where day trading makes sense – meaning that you are back in cash by the end of the day.
  • And taking it to the next level, it has often been the case that participating solely in the overnight futures session has delivered better returns than the regular U.S. session. We have a strategy for that too.
  • So today, without much fanfare, we start the soft opening of our new, comprehensive trading and mentoring services.
  • Allow me to take a moment and explain the new services. 
  • For $99 monthly, you can still receive all the basic communications and swing-trading signals. Nothing will change. 
  • However, for the $297 monthly Active Trader Subscribers, the Trading Room and many other benefits are now open. Swing Traders should read on as the free and public portion of the services are also available now.

The Week Ahead - Live on YouTube and Rumble

"The greatest victory is that which requires no battle." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War
  • You are invited to join me live every Sunday Night from 6:00 to 6:15 pm EST for my new program “S&P 500 Futures – a Quantitative Look at the Week Ahead.” This show will be recorded, available on the channels, and will be open to everyone.
  • I designed this live, 15-minute program to help traders build their trading sandbox and plan for the coming week.
  • At the conclusion of the program, BluPrint’s Navigator Active Subscribers™ will head over to our new “Members-Only” Trading Room for about 45-minutes to discuss the proprietary Navigator Algorithm™ trading edges for the week ahead. 
  • A comprehensive Q&A session will follow.

Morning Notes - Live on YouTube and Rumble

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, your victory will not stand in doubt." - Sun Tzu, The Art of War
  • Next, I invite you to join me on YouTube every morning from 8:00 to 8:15 am EST for my new program, “S&P 500 Futures – Trading The Day Ahead.” This show will also be recorded, available on the channels, and open to everyone.
  • The 15-minute live program will help traders build their trading sandbox for the day session ahead.
  • On Tuesdays and Thursdays, subscribers will then head over to BluPrint’s new “Members-Only” Trading Room to observe and interact with me while I trade the S&P 500 Futures live.
  • I will be calling out my trades and why I am doing them as we move through the morning session, generally concluding as Chicago and New York head into lunchtime.
  • The subscription allows any serious student to apprentice under me as a veteran trader and investor.

Afternoon Notes - Live on YouTube and Rumble

“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win” - Sun Tzu, The Art of War
  • Finally, I invite you to join me on YouTube and Rumble every afternoon from 4:15 to 4:30 pm EST for my new program, “S&P 500 Futures – Today’s Post Mortum.” This show will also be recorded, available on the channels, and open to everyone.
  • The 15-minute live program will help traders reflect on the day’s action while still fresh in their minds.
  • On Tuesdays and Thursdays, subscribers will head over to BluPrint’s new “Members-Only” Trading Room for a 45-minute Q&A session to drill down into the granularity of that day’s session and what we can model from it to improve for the future.
  • Despite all that is happening around us, you have a chance to take control of your life. I can teach any serious student to trade with our tools. And though I choose to trade the S&P 500 Index Futures exclusively, I teach principles applicable to any financial instrument.
  • This is not an overnight process, and it is certainly not for lazy and undisciplined traders. Most of the time, we trade against ourselves and our personalities. Five traders with the same information and tools can end up in five different places because of their individual personalities and idiocyncracies.
  • Join me in creating this amazing community where you will learn how to trade. We will keep each other informed and prepared as we traverse the rough road ahead and take advantage of the opportunities presented.
  • As we build the community, there will be many other benefits, including resource libraries, software, indicators, trading systems, and advcie on selecting and building trading computers. We will have lots of single-subject educational webinars designed to help you hone your skills.
  • Look, everything in life cycles. As sure as we are in a Fourth Turning, a wonderful First Turning lies ahead of us. But it is not likely to arrive until the end of the decade. So let’s look forward to it and pray that our country emerges stronger, better, and with our core values intact.

You will receive an invitation later today, about a half-hour before we go live on YouTube. As this is our first day, and we may have a few bugs, be patient and don’t be surprised if the invite comes a little late. That is why it is a “soft” opening. We will hold the “grand” start in a few weeks.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Morning Notes – 6/24/2022

AF Thornton 0 Comment

Good Morning:

  • The bond market is the tail that wags the proverbial dog. At least, it used to be that way before the Fed started using the financial markets as its primary monetary policy tool.
  • And let me interject, as a side note, that central planning by any measure is communism. I don’t understand why we find the Fed’s role acceptable considering their deplorable (no pun intended) track record.
  • The bond market has been rallying lately (using the TLT Treasury ETF as my benchmark).
  • You will recall my unofficial long TLT September Call trade several weeks ago.
  • The bond market is beginning to accept the Fed’s commitment to fighting inflation. As Chairman Powell said yesterday, he is willing to impose a “hard-landing” recession and rising unemployment on the rest of us to accomplish his goals.
  • A recession is precisely what it will take to impact inflation, as President Biden’s approval ratings plunge to the lowest levels of any modern President at this comparable stage.
  • Meanwhile, I have been giving the stock market a slight bullish edge (and I mean tiny) for an intermediate low.
  • We put in that low a week ago today.
  • Futures have popped higher overnight to 3830. Volatility estimates remain near 1%, with 3800 now acting as support. The next support is 3750. Resistance shows at 3855 (SPY 385) then 3900. I would give the market a range today of plus or minus 45 points from the open, keeping in mind that we are opening above the WEM high at 3796 on the day weekly options expire. So 3800 or so will likely act as a magnet through the close, muting today’s gain potential.
  • In rare cases, especially in bull markets, the market will bottom in a “V” reversal and not look back. The reversal usually begins with an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Arguably, there is one forming on the daily chart.
  • A valid “V” pattern requires the market to follow through in the next few sessions, break the balance range high at 3844, and then slide through the air pocket above on the way to 4000.
  • The more likely alternative to the “V” is a full retest of last Friday’s low at 3639, or perhaps flipping slightly above the low off the rising trendline. But we successfully probed that low three times on the 16th, 17th, and 21st. Maybe that gives the “V” reversal a slight edge.
  • Of course, the retest could fail, putting us into the other air pocket below 3639 that finds major support at 3400, with a couple of tree branches the market could grab onto as we slide off the cliff.
  • So, it might be this, or it might be that, right? Doesn’t that help?
  • To further complicate the case, there are rising wedge patterns all over the stock and bond markets, which typically means that these markets are getting ready to drop one more time – supporting the retest theory.
  • And, to spice it up a bit more, recall that the WEM high is at 3795, about 30 points below where the market is trading at this early, pre-market writing.
  • More than likely, dealers will try to hold the market to this level before weekly options expire at the close.
  • And what about the Navigator Algorithms? The Algo already threw an “E” exhaustion signal and would paint a solid buy signal with another close above the trigger line today at 3780. 
  • Also supporting the bull case, the market has closed above the 5-EMA for two sessions, and today could be the third. But the 21-day line (mean) remains a hurdle at 3857.
  • The Algo buy signal does not tell us how far the rally takes us, but we could at least target the middle or top of the down channel.
This is a chart of the S&P 500 Index Futures with the Navigator Algorithms and System Status Panel
This is a chart of the S&P 500 Index Futures applying the Navigator Algorithms and System Status Panel
  • As always, the truth is that I don’t know what the market will do. I give a slight edge now to the retest case, but it is ever so small.
  • I know what I will do – e.g., if this, then that. If not, then what? That is how I view the market.
  • And that brings me back to Balance Rules. We are in a balance range, so apply them.
  • But first, it appears that we will have a True Gap higher out of the gate this morning. So apply Gap Rules first.
  • Small gaps (and this one is likely to be small by recent comparison) typically get filled.
  • Another bullish factor is that the market rallied yesterday afternoon after two days of harsh market rhetoric from Fed Chairman Powell. I see that as a short-term bullish sentiment indicator.
  • So my forecast is:
    •  We are finishing an intermediate low likely to be followed by a rally up to 4000.
    • I am not certain about whether a retest of last Friday’s low is required first, or perhaps even a spike lower just to squeeze out the weak hands, so the dealers can buy some cheap inventory just to bring the market back up again.
    • I give a slight edge to the retest scenario, but I will remain very mindful of the somewhat rarer “V” reversal possibility already underway.
    • The WEM High at 3795 will likely draw the market back down and mute further gains today, so look for a potential gap fill.
    • We are still in a bear market until proven otherwise. So rallies are opportunities to cull your holdings or potentially get short. Periodically review our Market Thesis to stay in tune with the macro picture.
    • Seasonally, a summer rally usually presents toward the end of June, even in a bear market.

Have a terrific weekend.

A.F. Thornton

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Founder's Trading Journal

Morning Notes – 6/23/2022

AF Thornton 0 Comment
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures

Good Morning:

  • Whether or not we are in a bear market boils down to one question: Is the Fed friendly or not? We know the answer. 
  • All we can try to determine is whether the market is washed out enough in the short term to give us a short-covering rally. By most measures, it is – virtually on par with the March 2020 Covid Crash lows.
  • We can also determine that there can be a bullish bias going into the end of the calendar quarter a week from today—more on this below.
  • And that has put us back into another 200-point balance range between 3642 and 3843 on the S&P 500 futures contract. Balance Rules apply to the range. In other words, a breakup puts a target of 4042 in reach, and a breakdown brings 3442 into view.
  • The market probed the range in both directions yesterday, closing in the middle. The overnight range is in the middle of yesterday’s range, but the market has steadily increased since Europe opened. 
  • The market may open in the top third of yesterday’s range this morning with an orthodox gap higher. Though not a True Gap, you may still use some Gap Rule principles to guide you. 
  • Most important is how the market handles the morning Gap if it materializes. Does it fill right away (negative), or does the market move away from the Gap with impunity (positive)? The Gap serves as an initial sentiment indicator.
  • Fed Chairman Powell’s congressional testimony yesterday and today likely has a lot of money sidelined until his testimony is over.
  • The bottom line is that we should treat rallies into June 30th options expiration as “short covering” and subject to failure.
  • The best case is “positive drift” into expiration – perhaps allowing us to break the upper end of the balance range and move higher. I give slightly better odds to a breakup than a breakdown.
  • In that case, I would use 4000 as the short-term goal, with 3600 as significant downside support into June 30th. Remember that the June 30th expiration removes important put positions and may expose the market to further downside into July.
  • Getting a bit more granular, and focusing on the downside, recall that the market broke out from the pre-Covid Crash highs at roughly 3400. So carry that number forward in your narrative as well.
  • Also, carry the following numbers forward related to the retracement of the Covid rally and extension of the January to February decline; (i) the .382 Fib retracement at 3550, (ii) the 1.618 Fib extension at 3435, and (ii) the .50 Fib Retracement at 3235.
  • Recall that our intital target for this down leg was 3500, and our ultimate target for this bear market low is 2500 (and rising with time).
  • For now, use the balance range and Balance Rules to project targets. Spike low support below us is in the 3400 range.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Morning Notes – 6/22/2022

AF Thornton 0 Comment

Good Morning:

  • S&P futures are trading near 3705, having reversed most of yesterday’s gains.
  • Support lies at 3700 followed by 3620. Resistance shows at 3755 (SPY 375).
  • Fed Chairman Powell speaks today at 9:30 AM. EST.
  • Much of today’s consternation may be anticipating Powell’s remarks.
  • Yesterday’s action did little to support the idea of a sustained bounce.
  • Both volume and conviction were lacking. 
  • The retest I discussed, which normally comes on the fifth day after a new low, could result from Powell’s speech.
  • So while caution may be the rule of the day, it would not take much on a positive note to send the shorts into panic mode.

A.F. Thornton

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