Afternoon Notes – 3-8-2022

• Though it closed negative and on the lows, the market held its ground today and stayed within predicted ranges.
• The old Balance Area low at 4275 acted as resistance to the first rally attempt, and then our preannounced 4228 acted as resistance to the second rally attempt.
• Closing back on the lows was unhelpful.
• Of course, closing on the long-term trendline is positive but keeps us guessing, as the market likes to do.
• The market managed to stay inside our predicted ranges today, almost perfectly.
• Today, the Nickel market broke after the metal doubled to $100,000 and deliveries failed.
• The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are now officially in bear markets, down over 20%.
• The Biden Regime banned Russian Oil imports. Kudos for consistency. But they need to stop blaming high prices on the Ukraine Crisis. 
• The cost of oil had already doubled before the crisis due to executive orders hostile to fossil fuels signed in Biden’s first week in office. Biden is happy to see $7 per gallon gas to force the Green Energy boondoggle. If the Russians or Chinese take down our energy grid, I want gas power.
• The Biden Regime not only caused oil prices and gasoline to double before the Ukraine crisis, but the oil price shock has threatened our national security and exacerbated the Ukraine effect.
• An inflationary recession is coming soon to a theater near you.
• What do you think happens to consumer spending when inflation eats into incomes? There is a reason that presidential ratings are highly correlated to gasoline prices! And all of this is happening when the Fed only just ended Q.E. and still has rates at zero.
• So much for the reopening trade; travel stocks (AWAY) are plummeting on higher gasoline prices.
• There have been rumors about U.S. Biolabs in Ukraine. The corporate media and administration first deflected the rumors as conspiracy and Q’Non theories.
• The illustrious Victoria Nuland, the architect of all things Ukraine for the State Department and a key witness in the last Trump impeachment, admits today that the U.S. maintained multiple Biolabs in Ukraine.
• The State Department is now concerned that the labs will fall into the hands of the Russians. Why? Aren’t they just making Aspirin?
• Like Wuhan, the labs are black sites designed to circumvent U.S. laws and regulations. No wonder Putin is angry.
• Once again, Ukraine is a George Soros operation through and through. What are these people doing?
• By the way, where is Fauci? What happened to him? He hasn’t been on T.V. in days…

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), a great and profitable company producing many of our semiconductors, has lost 1/3 of its value. Does this portend China’s invasion? If the stock diverges from the semiconductor group (SOX), it may serve as a good China invasion barometer.

• Revisiting this morning’s chart, the market didn’t resolve anything today, closing on the lows again, but it held the trendline and Globex low. That is a net positive.
• The reason could be, as predicted this morning, the WEM low prevented a more precipitous fall, but it also felt like a slight change to a more positive tone unfolded.
• There appears to be some positive movement in resolving the Russia/Ukraine dispute. Time will tell.
• Let me repeat – the risk of a rip-your-face-off rally on ANY resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict or supportive U.S. Government data releases is off the charts with $1 trillion in Put Option open interest. Even the intraday rally today was more extensive than we have been recently experiencing.
• Be careful here. I would rather wait to establish some long positions than short at this juncture. If you do short, stops are critical.

A.F. Thornton