Morning Notes – 4/21/2022

• And doesn’t volatility look a bit complacent here? Protection is cheap, considering all that surrounds us, but I suppose the VIX already baked the lousy news in – at least the known.  But there is always the unknown.
• I am also mindful that the Yen’s near-collapse could leave some bodies buried that may float to the surface in the next few weeks.
• And Putin was showing off his new toy missile yesterday, bragging that he now has the nuclear edge over everyone.
• Maybe true, but these guys used blown-up plastic dummy missiles and other weapons in their military parades for years. At least this one flies.
• And China reaffirmed its commitment to deeper ties with Russia yesterday – so there are plenty of geopolitical risks as multiple countries gang up against us and the U.S. Dollar’s hegemony.
• Our opinion matters little anyway; we will follow the price action where it leads us.
• And if the S&P 500 is looking north to 5000, it will be because deglobalization (bringing all that manufacturing and production back home from China) is damn good for our country and workers.
• What if we are on the verge of an economic boom? Think about it. Look at our energy sales now to Europe? We produce a lot of the world’s food and weapons. What about all the construction and jobs associated with rebuilding our industrial base? What about all the new jobs working at these new factories and plants?
• None of that sounds terrible for our economy. Isn’t this what we wanted – to bring our jobs back home?
• I will pay some inflation (and we need to help those who can’t) if it means restoring our industrial base, transitioning our nation back to making products at home, and providing services that help America restore our national security and sovereignty.
• It is, indeed, sad that we have a bumbling U.S. Government.  I am not playing favorites – both Rs and Ds are responsible. Remember when we used to care about the Trade Deficit? How about the Budget Deficit? 
• Doesn’t this government know how to capitalize on the deglobalization opportunity immediately and help businesses transition? China would know what to do if the situation was reversed.
• Deglobalization should mean no recession.
• Aren’t we drowning in debt, Mr. President? Deglobalization is your way out – not war.
• How about sending someone to Russia to see if we can end this damn Ukraine problem. I hear everything but solutions – who is trying to end this from our side?
• Yes, Putin is a bad guy, so stipulated. I am tired of hearing the mind numbing narrative.
• Now could you do your job, Mr. President, and send some intelligent people to end this. Kissinger used to be a personal adviser to Putin; could he possibly give Putin a call? 
• I don’t want to end the world over Ukraine or Taiwan. We have better things to do.
• And if Russia truly has nuclear superiority, what happened to all those trillions? The money can’t all be in the Clinton Foundation. I thought you guys were working on flying saucers over at Area 51 – this would be a good time to do a fly-by at the Kremlin.
• Support today is at 4450 then 4420, resistance is 4500, then 4520. I am looking for a 1.2% move from the open (roughly plus or minus 50 points in each direction) when I adjust volatility for the negative gamma added from yesterday’s OPEX.
• If the market does try to rally, expect the 4580 Weekly Expected Move to act as a magnet to draw it back prior to tomorrow’s options expiration. This market may leave the reversal pattern hanging over the weekend – it loves a cliffhanger. Don’t we all?
• Price will gap higher in a True Gap at the open, so Gap Rules apply this morning. Use the fill/no-fill as your first sentiment indicator today. Observe the WEM magnet as this may be a false breakout above the current range until proven otherwise.
• Subscriber charts are posted.

A.F. Thornton