Beware the Ides of March

Beware the Ides of March

S&P 500 Index Futures Daily Chart - Support, Resistance and Upcoming Market Turns (click to enlarge).

Good Morning:

  • Beware of the Ides of March? In his recent tweet, Milton Berg (Twitter: @BergMilton) reminded me about this yearly cycle.

  • This year, using the ancient definition of the full Moon in March, the ides of March fall on March 6th/7th, 2023.

  • It is the last full moon in the winter, and hereafter people are looking naturally forward to spring and summer, making us all feel more joyful, leaving the cold and the dark behind us in the Northern Hemisphere.

  • The late Paul Montgomery wrote about this in his March 2009 newsletter:

Ides of March - Paul Montgomery Newsletter published right before the 2008-2009 Bear Market Low. Source Fiorente2@substack.com (click to enlarge).
Ides of March - Paul Montgomery Newsletter published right before the 2008-2009 Bear Market Low. Source Fiorente2@substack.com (click to enlarge).
  • So, in addition to the other reversal dates in our Windshield, Add March 7-8. I strongly encourage you to review yesterday’s outlook and study the chart above.
S&P 500 Index 60-Year Master Cycle (click to enlarge).
S&P 500 Index 60-Year Master Cycle (click to enlarge).
  • Though I don’t have a crystal ball, I expect the market to correct into early March and advance into May.
  • Yesterday, the market sold off into the 80-day cycle trendline and support. That could be it for the low, with a retest about a week out.
  • If the market does not hold yesterday’s low at 4002, the measured move is double the current decline, around 3800.
  • Notably, time estimates remain unaltered. If the past is any indication, expect an advance starting in the next 24 hours that will likely test the breakdown from 4050.
  • Unless we see a rare “V” reversal, I believe the first rally will fail, roll back down into a retest of the first low in early March, and finish the correction.
  • The next advance should take us to the full octave at 4288.
  • As always, carry the Black Swan exception forward in your narrative. As always, I could be wrong. As always, we will seek confirmation from our three algorithms and the price action to confirm the termination point.
  • You will continue to see some changes in this forecast and on the Website – and I will explain them soon.
  • On March 1, 2023, we are taking the Website and our services “Private.” readers can request to subscribe to read these posts. Free subscribers will no longer read (free) posts but can order a (monthly/yearly) paid subscription. 
  • This will not affect our existing premium subscribers. From now onwards, we will focus our services on premium subscribers only. 
  • What we publish on these pages is too valuable for public access. Moreover, we will feel free to discuss details we do not want to publicize.
  • For now, I want to announce an Introductory webinar this Saturday at noon EST, where I will teach a few strategies with an 85% success rate and triple-digit annual returns. Attending the webinar costs $795.00 with a money-back guarantee if you are not satisfied.
  • You will receive an invitation to the webinar in the next 24 hours.

A.F. Thornton

AF Thornton

Website: https://tradingarchimedes.com

A.F. "Arthur" Thornton is an expert in logic, risk/reward quantification, market fractals, pattern recognition and asset class behavioral analysis with 34 years devoted to developing algorithmic and quantitative trading systems. In addition to trading his own capital, Mr. Thornton designs custom algorithmic and quantitative trading systems for a small and exclusive group of exceptionally qualified traders.

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