Epilogue 6/21/2021

The trade I set up this morning is illustrated in the chart above. We had two long, day trade entries on the S&P 500 this morning. The first manifested on a cross of the 5-minute Navigator Algo trigger. The second came using the 30-minute breakout range setup I described pre-market. The market has not done much since the sell signal on the cross back below the Navigator Algo trigger on the chart above.

What confirmed these longs were the strong internals today – almost the reverse of Friday. There were 4 gainers for every loser on the NYSE and nearly 2 for one on the NASDAQ. NYSE tick distribution was positive all morning, as was the S&P 500 A/D line, which pegged at about 462 positive out of the 500 members. All of this supported a positive intraday trend day for day traders – carrying to our second target circa the 4200 area.

On the negative side, volume dropped over 40% from Friday’s down day. Admittedly, Friday’s volume was boosted by options expiration, but the drop in volume today is notable.

We would expect resistance exactly where the market rests at this writing if the downtrend has cemented itself. In that regard, I suggested this is a good position to begin shorting if you are a bear (and I am at the moment). We need a definitive close above the daily 21-EMA to argue for new high prices and an end to the pullback/correction. Today’s move back above the 50-day line does cause some bear indigestion, but nobody said this would be easy.

The sharp recovery could also indicate that Friday’s move was a one-off aberration. Recall I said that strange things happen on quadruple witching. It would be a cruel joke if that is the case and the market rocks on. As set forth in “View from the Top” this morning, we have been in a rotational correction since late April, it is not inconceivable that it ended Friday, but the probability is that there is more to go along the lines of the synchronous downdraft we experienced late last week.

As always, stay tuned and I remain open to all possibilities. I will provide a more extensive update as you sleep blissfully tonight. That is the advantage of being half a day ahead of the U.S. on this side of the world.

A.F. Thornton

However