Mid-Day Update – 7/19/2021

The S&P 500 is unquestionably short-term oversold, with the CBOE put/call ratio spiking to levels associated with a short-term low. The CNN Fear/Greed Index dropped down as low as 18 this morning, again showing extreme fear. The S&P 500 futures found initial support at the 50-day line, with the NASDAQ 100 finding support at its 21-day line. The low is untested at this point, and does not look like a “V” bottom.

I am following the lines of demarcation (FLDs) on the cycles using the daily chart.  We have now broken the nominal 20 and 40-day FLD lines, in sort of a cascading effect indicating the distinct possibility that we finally have our 18-month cycle peak. The bounce so far this morning looks sloppy and choppy, so a retest might very well happen before we can be assured that a short-term low is in place. 

Below the 50-day line, we have a trendline connecting the May, June, and July lows. That sits just above 4200 and could provide some support on further weakness. Don’t forget that we have the 200-day line just below 4000, as another target for a 10% correction. Typically, it takes some zigs and zags to get that far, if it happens at all.

All of this is normal and I am not prepared to get too negative, beyond what we would expect for an 18-month cycle low. Instead, I will let the price unfold and tell me what to do next. I am going to sit out the rest of the day. I have not found a good trade in the day session yet, though I will continue to check in to look for a potential double bottom or similar turn.

Likely, the next move would be a rally in the S&P 500 index futures back up to test the 21-day line, which may now become resistance in an intermediate down trend. That would be a fabulous short, should it present.

Stay tuned,

A.F. Thornton