The market is following the same path as the past several months thus far. It shoots up from the 50-day line, stalls, and then dips into the 21-day line around the 10th trading day. If the path is to continue, then we shoot up again for a few trading days into a new high, before dipping into mid-month options expiration.
So the key references today are yesterday’s low at 4492 and settlement up around 4511 or so. Acceptance and/or a close above 4511 keeps the bull case alive. A close below 4492 changes the tone considerably.
Central bank chatter both here and across the bond continues to bubble up under the surface. But the economy appears to be slowing, which takes the pressure off tapering.
A.F. Thornton