The market closed right on our stop lines yesterday, dipped below overnight, and then came roaring back to go positive this morning. After the first hour, I will see where things stand to decide whether we add to positions or bail. What is clear for now is that there are sellers above 4400 and buyers below 4300.
The 80-day cycle launch has been weak thus far, with no follow-through. I am increasingly convinced that it may peak early with left translation, keeping the 18-month cycle in play. This also raises the possibility that the market may continue in a downward trajectory into late November.
Cycles or no cycles, the vaccine mandates contribute to supply chain disruptions as workers protest and outright give up jobs to avoid the jab. I cannot blame them. More and more evidence continues to surface that the jab is likely as risky as the disease itself and virtually ineffective against the Delta variant. The good news is that therapeutics are increasingly accepted and effective as the medical establishment slowly but surely emerges from its political fog.
Needless to say, this is a tough market to call at this stage. The overnight low at 4317.50 is the trapped door to lower prices. If 4300 fails, the market will show its ugly side.
The overnight high at 4365 is the door to higher prices and perhaps our target of 4450 or so. The roundie at 4400 must hold for the market to continue upward to establish the top of the trading range I have been expecting.
A.F. Thornton