All posts by AF Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Dandruff

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Some corrections are easier than others, especially when a chart pattern appears to confirm it. One of the most commonly discussed chart patterns is the Head and Shoulders pattern. Growing up in what I am now terming the “Golden Era” of the 1950s – 1970s, we all remember the shampoo commercials. Hence the title for this ditty. Do you remember the commercial with Farrah Fawcett and Penny Marshall? The time has passed so quickly.

Now, most chart patterns don’t seem to work these days. Or, possibly, most technicians never dug deep enough to understand them. The Head and Shoulders pattern tends to mark a peak in prices, and there is an upside-down one that marks a low. The magnitude of the peak or low requires context. The context on a Head and Shoulders pattern is a cycle peak or trough. Very few market mavens seem to understand this.

So when such a pattern appears when I am expecting a cycle peak or trough, I am a lot more confident that it is a pattern that will take, versus some random grouping of prices.

As you know, I have been expecting a market cycle peak for a few weeks. As I have also indicated, I did not think this peak would be the big Kahuna. Remember our diamond pattern of a few weeks back? I was confident it would mark a short-term peak as well. When the diamond pattern went up and not down, which is the least likely case, it hinted at the pattern that would ultimately form. The diamond pattern turned out to be a left shoulder in the larger pattern.

The Head and Shoulders pattern not only appears at and marks a potential peak, but it allows a projection as to where the market might bottom, at least short-term. You measure the distance from the top of the head to the neckline and then project the same distance from the ultimate neckline break. Yesterday, that projection and the Weekly Expected Move low were almost the same target – 3830 or so on the S&P 500 futures contract. And so, like a force of nature, the market did exactly what was expected, spiking low into the target, allowing us to enter right near the projected low. By the close, the market had traveled right back to the neckline. That was a $2,000 plus profit on a single S&P 500 futures contract.

This morning, we see a similar pattern potentially forming in reverse. If it completes, we know the next projection point. It would also confirm that the cycle low is in. I am not as confident in this diagnosis as yet. There is a wide time swath for this cycle bottom – all the way into Mid-March. The cycles have been tending to bottom early of late – but I will keep an open mind until we have further confirmation.

Also, these patterns can form the tops of a much larger Head and Shoulders pattern forming on a larger cycle. So, for all we know, this entire pattern is forming the left shoulder of a much larger Head and Shoulders pattern of the nominal 18-month cycle top, with the next run-up forming the final peak. Let’s hope it is that easy, as it will help us project that cycle low with some accuracy. I doubt it will be that easy, but one can hope.

Today's Day Trading Plan

I don’t see any early imbalance from Globex that would set up an early trade. Let the market shake out a bit before trading. Responsive longs have good odds of working against some of the usual key levels. There is likely still inventory that is short in this market – so more short-covering can boost us higher.

I will use the back-to-back settlements at 3875.25 as a line in the sand to gauge bias, with  above being more bullish and below more bearish. The developing value area (where 70% of volume occurs) will be important as well.

Nasdaq futures continue to show relative weakness to the S&P 500. Keep this firmly in mind as further or intensifying Nasdaq 100 selling can curtail S&P 500 rallies. Remember, the FANGMAN stocks still dominate the cap weighting of the S&P 500 as they do the NASDAQ 100.

My overall focus today in the bigger picture is whether or not value can establish higher or not. This will confirm the reliability of yesterday’s reversal. While we closed relatively high in the session, the volume and time points of control did not migrate higher with price, and the value was clearly lower.

Founder's Trading Journal

Short-Term Navigator Buy Signal

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I issued a buy signal a short time ago to the Founders Group at S&P Futures 3833.50. I had targeted a retest of the Weekly Expected Move low after the first thrust from the bottom for an entry once the Navigator algo signal kicked in.

We should get at least a few days off this signal – hopefully, more. I will communicate a new stop later today, but for now, set the stop at 3826.50 on the futures contract. You can also use April 16, 2021, 350 calls on the SPY. If so, a close below 382.25 would operate as your mental stop.

As always, do your own homework as I am wrong periodically. Also, while this morning downdraft has worked off some froth, this remains a dangerous market, overvalued by historical standards. Entering intraday rather than confirming the buy signal at the close is a bit riskier – as the market could be fooling us and reverse through our stops prior to the close. That is the tradeoff for getting in a bit sooner and at lower prices.

I always like to let you know when the Algo signals kick in for the Founders Group. But we trade futures and are at our screens – so we can react to intraday change. It is perfectly acceptable to enter more towards today’s close, just to make sure the market holds above the aforementioned stop levels.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Current Cycle Alignments and Chairman Powell Testimony

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There are a couple of items I want you to glean from the weekly S&P 500 chart above (each candle is one week of activity), marked with my cycle analysis notes.

First, you can see the nominal, intermediate cycle low due in mid-March. That is the cycle correction underway now. 

Second, note that a larger cycle (larger, dotted semi-circle) is slated to the bottom in mid-August. The larger, dotted cycle is the nominal 18-month cycle – the big kahuna – the eight on the Richter scale. If this market will fall apart, the nominal 18-month cycle is the humdinger in our windshield. The cycle could be peaking now, but that is not my best judgment. As always, though, I will keep an open mind. At the halfway point on the semi-circle, the cycle begins to assert some influence. When all the cycles you see above are in sync, I get out my parachute.

While these cycles are built into the algorithm, it never hurts to see them in black and white. While cycle analysis is secondary in my work because it is not precise and subject to less tolerable variation, it has been a helpful “guide” over the past 34 years.

On a separate note, Chairman Powell’s semi-annual testimony is out. Here are the headlines thus far:


Perhaps these temperate economic views will nip the current inflation fears in the bud – but I would not count on it. I will be watching interest rates (TNX) and the financials (XLF) carefully to see the reaction today.

So far, the market has bounced on the Powell news intraday, and consumer confidence for January just came out, holding steady with a marginal gain. At least it was higher than the consensus expected, and that should be helpful as well.

Following up on last night’s mention of the book “The Dying of Money.” Jens O. Parsson wrote the book in the mid-1970s and chronicles the inflation in 1920s Germany and the 1970s in America. I had not read this in 20-years. It well-deserved my review. I will put the PDF up on the website later today as history may be repeating itself.

What struck me in reading this text last night is how good the financial markets and economy were in Germany in the 18-months leading to the currency crash. Inflating the currency really works and works well until it doesn’t. The Modern Monetary Theory crowd forgets one major item. It works until confidence breaks. Confidence is a tricky thing – it is hard to build but dissipates almost instantly. There are certainly historical lessons for the situation at hand.

Let’s see if Chairman Powell saved the market – if only temporarily…

A.F. Thornton 

Founder's Trading Journal

Dueling Banjos with Your Coffee

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In our last episode (last night), I left you thinking that I would see what the Europeans wanted to do with these markets. They voted with their feet – exiting stage right and thanking the Asians for driving their exit prices a bit higher from the New York close. It is nice to score a couple of points against China.

If the futures are to be the harbinger for the day, the NASDAQ 100 broke its 50-day line and its recent trendline last night. The NASDAQ 100 has also easily breached its Weekly Expected Move low, not a great sign for the market makers – who are largely responsible for selling futures this morning to neutralize their portfolio deltas. 

The S&P 500 futures are slicing through the mean at the 21-day line – following the NASDAQ 100 down this rocky road. The S&P 500 futures are now taking out last week’s low and moving into the January price range, more potential negatives. I am starting to think that this is the intermediate correction I had discussed last week and slated to bottom in mid-March.

Overall, I don’t think the S&P 500 really wants to be in this correction. The energy and financial sectors still want to rally. But technology is 30% of the index. While the financial sector will benefit from the steepening yield curve up to a point, it is not so good for technology and growth stocks. In any event, this correction is still a mild one – with a 5% top to bottom line correction still well below us at 3750. That would not be much to complain about – given the gains leading up to it.

The technology sector was all well and good when the seven FANGMAN stocks carried the entire market on its back (constituting 40% of the entire 500 stock index at its peak). But now, we are rolling the tape backward. The S&P 500 really doesn’t want to sell off and has much stronger underpinnings. But we cannot have it both ways now, can we?

And then there is the concept of throwing a match on gasoline. It won’t take a lot to get the crowd to panic here. So the S&P 500 index will only tolerate so much bifurcation. The financials are the key to everything right now, and I will be watching the XLF closely.

So the market is serving dueling banjos with your coffee this morning. Financials are still trying to carry us north, with the energy sector as its caboose. Technology wants to take us south. Who will win this battle? Only time will tell. Know this. I would rather watch than participate, at least for the moment.

The Navigator algorithms remain 100% cash. If you want to day trade the market today, gap rules are in play this morning, once again. Be careful with any early attempt at a fill.

With the large point divergence between the futures and cash this morning, moves are harder to predict. Let the gap rules be your guide with the emphasis on two and four.

If there is counter-trend rally action, monitor closely for the continuation and target the full gap fill at yesterday’s low. Take it step-by-step from there on any further strength.

Any gap and go continuation scenario will be coupled with extremely bearish internals and a partial to no gap fill in early trade. I can’t stress enough (like yesterday) that this is a hard play to pull off early as the market’s natural tendency is to take care of old business first, which is to deal with the overnight shorts in the gap.

Stay tuned…

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Cassandra

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When you are married to a Greek – you become Greek too. It just goes with the program. Not only is my wife full Greek, but it is also her first language, and her parents still live on a Greek Island in the Ionian Sea. Whether it is a Greek in the credits to a movie you just watched or any other measure of success or successful people, you are constantly reminded of Greeks, Greece and their contributions to medicine and the world. I call it Greek radar. I can bear witness that the movie “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” is all true – I live it every day. It must have been an autobiography. By the way, the food is to die for!

Passing on a bit of that Greek heritage to you, Cassandra was a Trojan priestess of Apollo in Greek mythology cursed to utter true prophecies but never to be believed. Her name is employed as a rhetorical device in modern usage to indicate someone whose accurate prophecies are not believed.

An investor I greatly respect, Michael Burry, uses the “Cassandra” handle on his Twitter account. Michael is featured in the movie “The Big Short” as one of the astute investors who saw the 2008 housing crisis approaching and positioned himself and his investors to make about $600 million in the collapse. Not bad for a few year’s work. The point is – nobody listened to his warnings then, and it still frustrates him. As a side note, he launched the recent GameStop craze when he tweeted about the Company’s short-interest exceeding their outstanding stock float by 30%.

Michael is slightly autistic (in that savant kind of way) and incredibly detail-oriented. That is one of the reasons I respect his work so much. Over the weekend, Michael warned of the coming collapse of this market. One of the resources he cited was an old but excellent book “Dying of Money: Lessons of the Great German and American Inflations” by Jens O. Parsson. You cannot buy the book, but I have a PDF if anyone is interested. I am dusting it off as I write this. Here is just a sampling:

“Inflations may be of every conceivable variety of degree, from the mildly annoying to the volcanic. Inflations may be fast or slow, accelerating or decelerating, chronic or transitory. Merely annoying inflation usually causes no one very much real harm. On the other hand, volcanic inflation is the kind of catastrophe that confiscates wealth, withholds the means of life, breeds revolutions, and precipitates wars. Every volcanic inflation of history began as mildly annoying inflation. The true nature of any inflation is not often visible on its surface. As with volcanoes, annoying inflation about to subside and die looks no different on its surface
than one that is about to erupt. It is the disquieting nature of inflation that no one knows with certainty what it will do next.”

The book is already inducing insomnia – but I am determined to finish it. Michael Burry believes his current warnings about Modern Monetary Theory and the coming collapse will be ignored, just as his warnings about the looming 2008 housing crisis weren’t heeded.

The relevance cannot be understated. The left’s new Modern Monetary Theory states that we can go into as much debt as we want because the US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency. In other words, deficits are irrelevant. Thus, everything on the current administration’s wish list (like $12 trillion in slave reparations and the $30 trillion Green New Deal) is no problem. Just turn on the printing presses.

Of course, accomplishing this feat of nature requires a melding of the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve. Who better to merge the two than Janet Yellen, our new Treasury Secretary and the former Federal Reserve Chair under President Obama. As you can see by her appointment, the plan is already well underway.

Of course, this merger flies in the face of the original intent to separate the Fed from the Federal Government so that the Fed would never become politicized. Oh well – so much for that ancient idea.

It is with Michael Burry’s warning, added to what we have been discussing in these pages, that I would report that commodity prices, particularly oil and copper, continued to surge today along with treasury yields. I won’t harp on the issues, but my antenna is at full alert.

Today, there were no buy signals, save for the XLE and XLF, both of which surged again. I am having a little FOMO (fear of missing out), perhaps making me regret taking profits a bit early. Of course, tomorrow might bring thanks – as pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered, Technology and the FAANGMAN stocks got absolutely hammered today – down nearly 3% as a group. The NASDAQ 100 handily sliced through its 21-day mean – not an easy slice as this market has raged since last March. But half the stocks in the S&P 100 went up – so the action looks rotational rather than a full-on bailing out of the market.

Built into the Navigator algorithm is the basic principle that the market rules the sectors and individual stocks. Sectors and individual stocks rarely buck the market tide when it rolls into the beach. In that vein, either the XLF and XLE will save the current downturn and bring the markets back up. Or the market will shortly pull the XLF and XLE into the correction. It is a tough call – but in my experience, these two sectors will likely join the correction before it finishes.

Something I can never program into the algorithms are the four most dangerous words in the investment world. Those words are “this time. It’s different.” Modern Monetary Theory, at least in my mind, is just a fancy variation on those four dangerous words.

I would not be successful at this game if I had not studied history, and I never stop. My conclusion is this – it is NEVER different. I am already wondering how history will view this insane period we are experiencing. Of course, it will depend on who survives to write it.

I am still expecting the current and much-needed pullback to be contained. I don’t think the big one is due quite yet. This should be a two or three on the Richter scale. The eight-scale earthquake still lies ahead – perhaps as we approach late spring or summer. Nobody knows for sure – so I always start each day with an open mind to all possibilities – including more melt-up before the shaking really starts.

I will await the judgment of the algorithm for now. Tonight, on a positive note, the S&P Futures bounced at the 21-day line as Asia opened. We will get Europe’s vote later on. 

But I hear the clock ticking in the background. It is still faint – but I am never too far from the alarm.

I will publish tomorrow’s plan in the morning. 

Oh, what a tangled web we weave…

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Luck of the Irish

AF Thornton 0 Comment

The China Virus still haunts us here in Colorado, and I am half Irish. The combination means I am off to the Driver License bureau this morning to renew my driver’s license that expired last April. Naturally, of all days I have to do this, the S&P 500 futures contract is already tagging my initial target line mentioned in the update last night. I want to be at my desk to monitor this and confirm a tradable bottom if it were to arrive today. That is the Irish part – Murphy’s Law. What can go wrong will go wrong.

These corrections don’t come often enough lately, and I hate to miss the bottom of this one. Of course, there is no guarantee the market will stop at my target – but I would at least like to monitor it. The cell phone will have to do – but it does not like my algorithms. At least I can see my main computer at my office on it – with a magnifying glass. 

Unless I want to wait another three months, I have to drive to Trinidad (on the New Mexico/Colorado border) to renew my license (requires an in-person appointment). I have another appointment near me, but even that is another month out. Five hours in the car to renew my license. Thanks, China!

Colorado has given all of us a grace period to drive on the expired licenses, but not everyone who needs an ID from you follows suit. Before I get sent back to Ireland as an “undocumented” immigrant, I am at the limit. I am just kidding about being sent back – but it feels that bad having an expired driver’s license for almost a year. 

As you probably know, President* Biden has outlawed the term “illegal” immigrant. Well, I am not sure if the same ban applies to European immigrants. They are mostly white and tend to vote Republican – so perhaps they are still “illegals.” Our Southern friends vote Democrat, so they are just “undocumented” now. Apparently, the proposal now amounts to 20 million of them getting citizenship and jobs.

My mother told me if I don’t have something nice to say, don’t say anything. So I will say that this is anti-inflationary. It will help keep wages and labor costs down. I hope it is not your wages or mine, right?

Gap rules apply this morning.  Start with whether the Globex low at 3861.50 holds. That is today’s line in the sand. Remember that key reference points on the S&P 500 futures are the 50 point handles, so observe 3850 if the Globex low does not hold. A retest of the Globex low is possible in the day session, and they will try to run the stops right below it, making 3850 a key level.

If the Globex low holds, I would use a close above an 8-day EMA line on a 195-minute chart as a proxy for a buy signal. A close above that level is a possible buy signal. That is the best I can do in the circumstances.

As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Inflation and Interest Rates

AF Thornton 0 Comment

Just a quick note tonight. Copper prices, along with many other commodity prices, have been surging. Even corn has been recently nicknamed “bitcorn” for its rapid rise. So, inflationary pressures are mounting, at least for the moment. 

Interest rates have been responding to the inflationary pressures, with the 10-year Treasury yield now at 1.35 and rapidly ascending even tonight. The rate could reach 1.5% this week – equivalent to the dividend yield on the S&P 500 index. The rate on January 1st had been 0.91% – so the move up to 1.5% is quite a rise in a short period of time (even though rates are still generally low) and quite damaging to a bondholder. The Treasury ETF (TLT) is down 10% so far this year.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has gone nowhere for two weeks but seems to be in a small topping pattern, with volume surging on some down days. The NASDAQ 100 has already tagged its mean at the 21-day exponential moving average. The S&P 500 has held up better with its energy and financial exposure. 

Nevertheless, the S&P 500 may still tag its 21-day line this week as well. The S&P 500 index futures 21-day line is at 3867, right around the January high. But the topping pattern projection (assuming the pattern grips) could be as low as 3800. I guess we can split the difference and hope to hold the 3850 level or so (which Is where I would first be watching to deploy cash). We will let the algorithm have the final say – but those are some good target points. 

On the first chart above of the S&P 500 Index futures, I have marked all the key levels for the week, and threw in a couple of lines illustrating a 5% and 10% correction from the peak of prices last week – should the market break down further than the 21-day line (in green).

In the background, problems are developing in the Silver ETF (SLV), similar to Gamestop’s (GME). The paper (options) trading around the SLV exceeds the SLV shares available to cover the options. Compounding the problems are delayed deliveries of the metal supposedly due to a physical shortage (I don’t automatically believe the manipulating hedge fund talking heads or their tools in the financial media on this shortage). This reminds us of the considerable and outstanding Gamma (options leverage) risk on many stocks, not to mention record margin debt. 

There is so much leverage out there that you would need an umbrella to shield the falling pieces if it starts unwinding – especially if triggered by systematic risk associated with the delivery or accounting for Gold and Silver in the ETF trusts. 

The whole Gamestop scenario might have been a harbinger of what is to come. Anyway, those are the issues on my mind tonight. I want to pick up the XLE and XLF if we get a decent downdraft. I would be expecting rates to peak short-term in the 1.5% zone. Don’t forget that the Fed looms large in the background with their “yield curve controls.” Whatever that means, I am not sure the stock or bond markets will like it.

There will come the point where buy the dip stops working. There is no evidence yet that non-risk assets are ready to assert themselves over risk assets. Nor is the next major cycle due to peak quite yet unless it is incredibly early. This is a minor cycle dip we are in currently – likely a 20-day cycle unless the 20-week cycle did not bottom February 1st, as expected.

I will be out tomorrow morning. So my next commentary will be Tuesday. For now, the models and algorithms are still in cash – and I know I will sleep better tonight as a result.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

No New Positions

AF Thornton 0 Comment

The market has retained and reinforced the small topping pattern as the market makers worked it to the large, open interest monthly and weekly options expirations. The biggest concentration is around 3900, and the market is hanging right there.

So let’s take the weekend and see if there are any great insights. Rates climbed again today, and there are a lot of nuances in bond market volume as well as the gold/silver ratio I need to evaluate.

Enjoy your weekend.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Options Expiration

AF Thornton 0 Comment

Navigator Algorithms – 100% Cash

My male collie gave me the elbow bump this morning, accidentally deleting my morning commentary. His record on trades is break even so far. I keep trying to get him to bump the left elbow, rather than the right. So far it is not working. I may have to become left-handed if this keeps up.

Weekly options expire every Friday and have a significant influence on the markets. Yesterday, the Weekly Expected Move low caught the market’s fall almost to the penny. Today, monthly options expire as well. 

There can be a lot of manipulation leading to monthly expiration. For example, the market is opening at the strike price where most of the options expire. That may explain why the market has whipped around the past few days – but brought us back to this level.

Otherwise, assuming the market holds below the 3928 levels on the futures, it looks like a small topping pattern is forming. That would make sense, as our next intermediate cycle low is slated for early March. 

This morning is a true gap higher on balanced overnight inventory. Gap rules are applicable.

The line in the sand today is the 3910 settlement, the fifth time we have settled at that level. Due to monthly and weekly expiration and the attendant manipulation by market makers, I don’t typically trade on these days.

I will make any longer-term decisions during the last hour of trading today.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Back to Cash

AF Thornton 0 Comment

It is a fight to the finish this morning around 3900, but interest rates are quietly rising in the background, and there is heavy volume in the bond market, something we have been able to ignore for some time. Growth stocks, namely the NASDAQ 100 and FANGMAN members continue to break down as well. The energy and financial stocks cannot carry the market alone. So the better decision this morning is to honor the stop and exit the market. We are out at 3693.25. The Weekly Expected Move low is at 3882.50 and likely will contain any damage for the week.

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