Nothing like getting the Pre-Market Outlook after the close, right? The updates must have been strange today without the base information. Somehow the writing got stuck in the scheduler this morning. It is out now, but prints below the two previous updates. Simply scroll down. I will do better tomorrow. Every once in a while, I will encounter a technical glitch.

The close was unimpressive, and we closed inside yesterday’s range. No surprise ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow. I can argue both for higher or lower prices – but remain satisfied to be in cash for our Navigator swing strategy. As for day trading, the bias is still bullish, as we closed above the 5-Day EMA and Navigator trigger line, though not by much.

The market eeked out a new all-time high, but only in Globex last night. As for today’s session, the market could not fight its way out of a wet paper bag. It simply wound down from the open, with a few flurries higher in the afternoon. The flurries led nowhere.

Tomorrow is a crapshoot – so your guess is as good as mine. My concerns have been laid out in these pages. One caution, however, is in order. What if the Fed does start talking about tapering or even raising rates sooner than anticipated due to inflation concerns?

One assumes that the market would interpret such news negatively. And likely it would. But when a market wants to go up – it goes up. The narrative could shift to celebrating a “vigilant” Fed. So, don’t ever think you can figure these events out. We know the issues – let the price tell us what to do next. It will. It always does.

A.F. Thornton