Pre-Market Outlook – 5/26/2021

As expected, the Weekly Expected Move high on the S&P 500 (4206) is the proverbial brick wall, assisted as it were by 4200, a more typical obstacle as most ‘100 point markers turn out to be in a climb. Overnight traders accomplished little to nothing, and so we remain inside Monday and Tuesday’s ranges.

Current price and range tells us little about how early trade will react even though overnight inventory is 100% net long. That could mute any potential fade.

The overnight failure to move below settlement should be taken as bullish and day timeframe traders can assume a “buy on pullbacks” stance given supporting context, exercising caution around the 4200 and WEM high. Only acceptance below yesterday’s low at 4185 has potential to change the tone.

As June closes, the summer doldrums lie ahead. The all-time high (in the overnight market) at 4238 could be tagged on some strength, but I would fade it back to the WEM high. A trading range into the summer is a likely scenario, bounded between 4250 and 4050 with a sell-off finishing into early fall.

A.F. Thornton