Be sure to review the Top-Down analysis published earlier this morning. Not a lot has changed in the bigger picture from last week, except that we are now back at the top of the trading range, with bulls hoping for a breakout.

Except for a few ticks, the overnight range is within Friday’s range. The inability to break out of Friday’s range tells us that the market is in balance for now.

The overnight balance often carries over into the regular session. We always want to think in terms of probabilities – and that is the most probable course.

The all-time high right above us does complicate the probabilities. Market makers could try to run the buy-stops above the range to capture the order flow.

Pay attention to internals and FANGMAN+T. Strength with either or both could support a breakout.

Friday’s market profile resulted in a double distribution. The overnight halfback is the exact point where the upper one ends, and the lower one begins. Treat each profile as a different day. Acceptance in the upper one is more bullish than acceptance in the lower one. To put it another way, watch where value develops today.

The all-time high could easily be in play today, and traders should also note that the overnight high and Friday’s high are almost identical. That sets up a potential go/no-go level on the upside.

Given the overnight tone, assume further balance if the market cannot move out of the overnight and Friday range. Potential is there for higher over the overnight high, targeting the all-time high.

There is an unfilled gap below us from Thurs/Fri of last week. This gap should remain unfilled for the time being if the bullish sentiment from late last week is to hold. Filling it has the potential to change the tone. Continue to carry it forward as long as it is unfilled.