Afternoon Notes – 4/12/2022

• The blue Put line rising all day indicates a lot of Put selling. Usually, this positively impacts the market as Dealers have to buy futures to hedge their portfolio deltas. But the market rolled over after the initial morning pop.
• I don’t have to explain the morning rally, as it fizzled by the end of the day. But as indicated in the morning notes, short-covering likely drove the initial gains (short the rumor buy the news). 
• Nevertheless, the index should have continued to rise. Options activity does not always influence the market, but today’s aggressive Put selling often coincides with a short-term bottom.
• So the market remains wandering in the desert between 4400 and 4500, and the influence of expiration this month looks neutral to slightly positive for prices.
• So I will go out on a limb to suggest that the WEM low at 4400 will hold this week, and we could see the price pop back up to test the neckline of the topping pattern discussed this morning at 4475.
• The next catalyst will be JP Morgan Chase’s earnings tomorrow morning. The forward guidance will be the most crucial driver, whatever the earnings may be.
• I don’t think the crowd expects banks to do well with an inverted yield curve and a recession potentially ahead.
• Sadly, the situation continues to deteriorate in Europe, with Russia sending warships toward Finland,  another country that wants to join NATO with Austria. Both countries border Russia.
• It reminds me of one of the most potent axioms I learned when I was younger – “What you Fear, you Create.” Putin should take a page from that book.
• But I am frustrated by the lies and manipulation emanating from the information stream.
• It is tough to discern truth from falsehoods, especially with the Biden regime.
• But I give the left and the Biden regime credit for discipline, if nothing else. They repeat all the same talking points like a page out of the Stepford Wives (dating myself again).
• Truly, if I hear another leftist repeat “Putin Price Hikes” again, I will throw something at the television. Are all these leftists on MSNBC and CNN robots?
• They must believe we are stupid, and maybe we are. But it isn’t very respectful.
• Did Joe forget we were all putting gas in our cars and buying groceries long before Russia invaded Ukraine? How about the price of houses, used cars, lumber, etc., long before Putin invaded his neighbor?
• Nice try, Joe! Why don’t you let our oil and gas industry out of its handcuffs, and we will starve Putin of his primary income? The last time we did that, it bankrupted the Soviet Union.
• If Russia does nuke us, I hope they start with Washington D.C. It may be our only chance to recover.

A.F. Thornton