I closed out another nice trade on the S&P 500 E-mini Futures about 15 minutes before the close – the trade I had mentioned mid-day that once again keyed off the Weekly Expected Move low at 4189. Combined with the middle of the night trades, and I am trading conservatively,
I captured significant sums today working that same S&P 500 WEM low, sprinkled with a few NASDAQ 100 contracts that I clearly sold too early this morning. Anyway, today was a good day-trading day for me. And go figure, I squeezed out some good gains in what can only be described as a bit of a strange and bifurcated market.
Yesterday, a potential leadership change manifested when the financials turned around after the Fed announcement and press conference. But investors were having none of that today, with more rotation from cyclicals and financials back to tech and other growth stocks. Typically, the day after is a better harbinger of the future than the day of the Fed decision.
Maybe the rotation does make sense, as the NASDAQ 100 had been in a consolidation since last August. The time flies, and cyclical/value names have had plenty of fun in the sun. That is why I need the weekend to take a look at all of this from 30,000 feet. This is the second time in a month that I underestimated the NASDAQ 100. Apparently I was in good company today – but it still ****** me off.
I am not trading tomorrow, nor will there be any outlooks or commentary. First, it is unwise to trade on quadruple witching expiration. Also, Friday is a religious holiday here in Greece and everybody will be in church. When I say everybody – I mean everybody.
I am told that they will all gossip if I don’t attend – and that is not good in these small villages as gossip is the main industry already. There is a quaint Greek Orthodox church on nearly every corner. They are as prolific as Walgreens at home.
The beauty of these churches is something to behold. I really enjoy them, and they are quite similar to my Catholic upbringing – at least if I understood Greek. I didn’t understand Latin either. You might recall that the Catholic church split off from what became the Greek Orthodox church in the Great Schism.
Speaking of a great schism, that is a good description for the NASDAQ 100 (NDX, NQU1, or QQQ) today. The NASDAQ 100 headed north in what almost amounted to a solo climb, while the S&P 500 (SPX, ESU1, or SPY) and nearly everything else headed south. By the day’s end, the S&P 500 and a few of the sectors had improved, at least climbing a small hill and closing near the highs of the day.
The broad market, then, looks like it is already in a correction and waiting for the NASDAQ 100 and growth stocks to join. The NASDAQ 100 is throwing a lifeline out to the rest of the crowd to pull them up. I am not sure who will win. For now and with my bad knee, I will grab a beer and watch from the ski lodge.
I look forward to figuring all of this out and wish you a happy weekend (early).
A.F. Thornton