Thursday Morning Supplemental Notes

  • This note supplements yesterday afternoon’s Founder’s Trading Notes from yesterday. Refer to the notes for charts, key levels, and today’s trading plan.
  • Premarket indications have us opening in the lower third of the overnight range on 100% net short overnight inventory.
  • Tee up Gap Rules this morning, as there is potential for early trade for knowledgeable and experienced traders.
  • With the market approaching the 61.9% Fib retracement just above 3900 (bottom of the Fib Buy Zone on yesterday afternoon’s chart), be careful if you intend to initiate any new short positions. The climbing put/call ratio signifies that the short-term decline could end. 
  • Price also encounters an uptrend line at 3900, connecting the 6/17 and 7/14 lows, and 3900 is the new Put Wall, often with significant support from the options market. 
  • With no pause in the selling since the Powell smackdown of 8/26, the risk of a reflex rally is becoming greater than further declines, at least in the short term.
  • As it is the 1st trading day of a new month, positive flows may have a bullish influence on the market, and the shorts are getting too comfortable.
  • Price is also at the tip of a falling wedge pattern on the hourly charts, which often leads to a price reversal higher if the pattern takes.
  • I often remind myself that pigs get fat and hogs get slaughtered.
  • Subscribers can join me in the Founder’s Room this morning.

A.F Thornton

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