Inflation, Red Lines, and Superheroes…

Good Evening/Early Morning:

• On a housekeeping note, I will be in the Founders’ Room Monday through Thursday this week to try to get a few licks in before the holidays.
• Premium Members – check and reset your phone alerts, as they may have been impacted by the Founders’ Room upgrades last week. Also, you must log into the room at least once every two weeks, or the system will have you reset your phone alerts and pin code.
• As a side note, I put a lot of detailed charts and some new, Pre-Market Considerations and Checklists in the room files, so take a look.
• We begin a volatile week with the NY Fed Inflation Expectations and a cadre of U.S. Treasury auctions Monday, the CPI report (pre-market) Tuesday, followed by the Fed Rate Announcement on Wednesday.
• Then we go into Quadruple Witching when weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual futures and options expire.
• By the way, make sure you switch to the March 2023 Futures Contract.
• If there were ever a week to take a vacation, this is probably it.
• Speaking of that, I will take the Christmas week off, but I will still put charts up in the room and drop a line if something important (like Nuclear War) arises.
• The key price levels we have been following remain the same; closes above 4000 keep the ball rolling higher, and closes below 3900 trigger parachutes.
• Monday is anticipated to be relatively calm, with an implied move of 0.87% (max move, open/close). Major resistance above remains at 4000-4010 (SPY 410). Support shows at 3960 (SPY 395) – 3950, with 3900 major support.
• Realistically, we are navigating about a 200-point balance range. Typically, one would project a minimum 200-point price target from a break higher or lower (4300 or 3700, respectively).
• We are in the zone for the 80-day cycle trough, and the cycle low either gives the price a thrust after a volatile drawdown or perhaps provides enough energy to keep us sideways in the range through year-end. think of it as kind of a strained Santa Clause rally.
• The 60-year cycle path suggests we have already put in the Mid Four-Year Cycle low, and prices will move sideways before revisiting the October low again as we approach early Spring. A 60-year timespan with a 5% variance is a tough cycle low to call precisely.
• Higher prices seem hard to swallow, but that is one reason I plan to reveal one of my long-held secrets in the 2023 forecast coming out around Christmas. you simply cannot rule higher prices out, even if they seem to defy gravity
• Sure, I remain more bearish than bullish, but it still bothers me that so many pundits predict economic Armageddon. The market has held its ground remarkably well since October. Recall that the market was supposed to crash then too.
• The entire bear market from January has been nothing, if not orderly, almost like a slow leak in a car tire. Perhaps it is a “managed” decline of the Everything Bubble – slowly deteriorating like our nation-state.
• Naturally, I feel this way because we have had considerable profits this year. Perhaps those with losses think differently.
• But the pain trade is once again the fear now (besides getting nuked). Too many pundits on the bearish side predicting the financial world is ending. Sure, things are unpleasant, but I have heard the sad song before, and the pain never seems to manifest as the crowd expects – unless you are short. Where were these bears at the top?
• It is too bad that Armageddon doesn’t come more often. There do not seem to be any consequences for the poor decisions of our elites as yet. They need a hard lesson, even though it might take the rest of us down too.
• For now, we must let the price action guide us, and it will sometimes try to fool us.
• In the meantime, the Navigator Swing Strategy remains in the cash/short signal from December 1st at 4084.
• Unless you are a pure gambler, cash is never a bad place to hover when such volatile events are scheduled like this week. There will always be another train leaving the station.
• Surprisingly, the Fed Funds rate seems to be pricing in a quarter-point fed rate hike. I was expecting another 50 bps, if not 75. The smaller projected hike may explain the market’s resilience.
• As to the headline, we get the latest on inflation Tuesday with CPI; Putin says he will launch 200 Nukes if another missile enters Russia. 
• Don’t worry; the Orwell Administration told Ukraine to proceed with strikes deep inside Russia, regardless of Putin’s remarks. Even a first grader can tell that the Orwell administration wants to mask their corruption and help the depopulation agenda along with a nuclear war. We will lose.
• I don’t know about you, but my back and arms are sore from digging out my bunker all weekend. will I still be able to trade? Sure, probably for food and water.
• Oh, and if Putin decides to peg oil to gold and only accept gold for oil, you can kiss the dollar goodbye. Gold for oil would nearly be as effective as a nuke.
• Like Weimar, Germany, on the 100-year anniversary, save your grocery basket for the cash you will need to buy a loaf of bread.
• I hate to be the one that is saying what everyone else is thinking, but at some point, this corrupt and inept administration needs to be “exited,” just as Mr. Musk exited BI SPY James Baker from Twitter. I hope the Orwell clown show is “exited” before it is too late.
• As a side note, I also listened to Babbel’s language courses as I dug the bunker (grave if not finished in time). I think I like Russian the best. Mandarin is hard. 
• Besides, most Russians look like us and eat normal food. Those native Chinese will eat anything! I am a bit fussy about what I eat!

Happy Holidays, then? Sure, we are supposed to live in the moment, and what a moment this has become.

A.F. Thornton