Morning Notes – 3/31/2022

Good Morning:

• BluPrint is ending another positive quarter, as we are now in our third year of triple-digit gains, leaving the benchmark S&P 500 in the dust.

• I won’t forget this quarter, though, as I sat out January with the dreaded China Virus and missed one of the best shorting opportunities in a long time. And the last month of website construction and improvements has been enough to put me in the insane asylum.

• Nevertheless, gains for the quarter have been exceptional both for day and swing traders. And I am thankful we came into the year 100% in cash.

• I will publish the latest numbers in the upcoming Navigator Oracle™ Monthly Market Letter.
• The key to our success is, and always will be, executing trades and maintaining positions based on objective, market-generated information using the Navigator Algorithms™ as our base. Opinion matters little in our world, except as filler while awaiting our next signal.
• I am surprised we have done so well, considering current market challenges. The first quarter involved a lot of news-driven swings. Even an algorithm can be tossed around by news.
• And for all the fretting about coming tightening and reduction in liquidity, there has been nothing save for a minuscule 25 basis point Fed hike. The balance sheet continues its upward trajectory.
• You can produce record earnings despite economic shutdowns and restrictions when you hand out free money in the trillions. Is it sustainable? Not without more free money. This party is coming to an end, although buybacks as a form of liquidity will help maintain a bid under the market for now.
• Historically, April is the strongest month of the year. If it isn’t this year, it may simply be the news of the day countering expected seasonal trends in this unusual time.
• The crowd believes that rates are headed higher, but the charts say otherwise. Rates appear to be peaking in the short term. Bonds are short-term oversold.
• It is hard to argue with the strong price action in the stock market except to suggest that it is short-term overbought.
• As expected yesterday, the S&P 500 danced around the 4600 call wall, hitting our marks perfectly up and down. The call wall did move about 50 points higher to 4650. Still, the market is a bit overheated, and direction is difficult to discern until the quarter officially ends today and we get past the weekly expiration tomorrow.
• I expect more of the same today as yesterday – a dance around 4600 until expiration tomorrow afternoon. 
• Look for resistance at 4612. then the WEM high at 4625. We could temporarily overshoot the WEM high up to the 4650 Call Wall but expect the WEM high to act as a magnet should that happen. Support should continue to come in at 4575 and then 4550.
•  The expected move for today is about the same as yesterday, plus or minus 29 points from the open.
• Key A.M. Trade Levels and Charts have been posted for subscribers.

Now that you know my views, what do you think?  Email your thoughts to me directly.

A.F. Thornton