Morning Notes – 7/11/2022

Good Morning:

• Futures are weak overnight as we continue in the ambiguous triangle pattern on the daily chart. We took out Friday’s low overnight, which is never a good sign. We have managed to return back inside Friday’s range, with 3877 the short-term resistance for now.
• I am slightly favoring an upside breakout up to 4050 and even 4150 because we are coming off the Nominal 20-week cycle low. It is a close call, and I am prepared to go either direction.
• There is a consortium of multiple time frame moving averages, as well as the high volume node just above 3900 that continues to be a hurdle to higher prices. If we can get above them, then the levels will provide support, at least for a time.
• The Weekly Expected Move range is 3833 – 4000, with today’s range set from 3850-3950.
• There is still the potential to open with a true gap down, though it seems less likely now. If so, apply GAP Rules.
• A stubbornly high U.S. Dollar remains a wildcard. It puts pressure on emerging market debt, and may impact corporate earnings.
• A new and developing “Midterm Covid Strain” has emerged which is supposedly more contagious and unpleasant than any prior strain. 
• I call it the “Midterm” strain because I have been waiting to see what the Globalists will come up with to either scratch or make it easier to cheat in the U.S. midterm elections to keep their Manchurian Candidates in office. 
• Earnings will take center stage next week starting with banks and other financials.
• Red Letter issues today are Fed Gov Williams speaking at 2 pm EST and some T-bill Auctions.
• The June inflation numbers, consumer confidence, and retail sales will come out later in the week and keep market participants guessing.
• There are orders in the book underneath the market, so there are plenty of buyers this morning. 
• It is nice to see the book filling up again.
• We sold the other 25% call position Friday when the futures reached 3920.50. So the Swing Strategy is back to cash for now.

Have a great Monday!

A.F. Thornton