Morning Notes – 8/26/2022

Good Morning:

• I will be live on YouTube this morning for the Fed Speech from Jackson Hole (my home city). Here is the link.
• As you might have heard, the Orwellians (with a wink from the establishment Republicans) rolled out a new strategy the past few days to tag President Trump with the Covid-19 vaccines and all of the bad side effects, permanent damages, and deaths.
• But at least the vaccines prevent transmission and presentation of the disease, right? Wait, you mean they don’t? Do you mean that you are more likely to get the illness and die than if you had not taken the vax? ORANGE MAN BAD!
• And you cannot make this up, but all the social media giants, including YouTube, magically lifted all of their restrictions on discussing the negative effects of the vaccines yesterday.
• And in an unrelated disclosure, Mark Zuckerberg, yes, Zuck himself, told Joe Rogan yesterday that he had a visit from the FBI before the 2020 election informing Facebook to be vigilant because the Russians were about to drop a big load of disinformation. A few weeks later, the Hunter Biden laptop corruption treasure trove appeared on the scene. So Zuck admitted that Facebook suppressed the laptop as Russian disinformation.
• Remember that the FBI had already possessed the laptop since late 2019 and never disclosed it before Trump’s second impeachment trial or the 2020 election. The laptop computer confirmed everything Trump discussed in the Ukraine phone call and more. It would have exonerated Trump by itself. 
• Obviously, the FBI interfered in the 2020 election, just as the FBI and Justice Department are now interfering in the mid-terms with the Mar-a-Lago raid. So the Orwell administration and its government, social, and other media cronies are now in full gear to alter reality.
• Having lost my mother and father-in-law to the vaccines, nobody needed to tell me the damages. And there is no doubt who knowingly made the vaccines mandatory and still is – President Orwell.
• But the irony is that the people who lined up for the vaccines and promoted them are all Orwell supporters. The Orwellians must be angry that ORANGE MAN BAD supporters refused the vaccines – and are surviving in droves. Morbid though it may be, it looks like the Orwellians are killing their supporters and votes.
• Anyway, if I were the ORANGE MAN, I would take the incoming right until the last minute and announce my retirement and endorsement of Ron Desantis. Doing this right before the 2024 election would ensure a Desantis victory before the Orwellians can devise a smear campaign.
• Disturbingly, you can get 30% of the population to believe almost any lie, and the Orwellians know this too. But they should have thought about how many of their supporters might be left to vote for them.
• Likely, I need to take a vacation where there is no communication and media until January 1st to stay sane before the upcoming mid-term elections.
• As always, thanks for letting me rant just a bit.
• Yesterday saw the market continuing to turn at our “X” marks the spot. And it seems the market wants to move higher at this 80-day cycle pivot point. The market usually gets what it wants, and the excuses come later.
• We ended yesterday on a spike so Spike Rules apply this morning. So far the indication is bullish, as the market is slated to open within the Spike.
• I have no real basis for this forecast, and neither does the market, but it seems that no matter what the Fed says this morning, the market will move higher, then eventually lower in a few eeks. Like I said, no basis for this, just a gut feeling.
• The market has a 50-point DEM (4150 to 4250) with plenty of upside room in the WEM range (4145 to 4310) before today’s weekly expiration at the close. I think the DEM underestimates the volatility we will experience today
• With the lower end of both ranges near 4150, perhaps the level would be a low risk to stop entry point in a more downward spike after the speech is released.
• Yesterday’s move back into the WEM range and its close above the five and 21-day lines were short-term bullish.
• One day does not make a trend – but it is a step in the right direction for the bulls.
• The pre-market PCE release may give the market a hint before the Fed speech. This measure of actual consumer expenditures is said to be Chairman Powell’s favorite indicator.
• We remain on the same plan since we first announced it on the sell alerts early last week (see chart above).
• Since Wednesday, we have been trading a short-term buy alert on the 2-hour chart at 4127.50. A few hourly closes below the 5-day line or a spike lower is our stop.
• A close below or even a significant sell-off after today’s speech and reports puts the bear back into play.
• The top of the recent Gap at 4220 could be the first major resistance on a move higher, and the VPOC at 4140 might be the first major support after 4150 on a move lower.

Stay tuned and have a great weekend!

A.F. Thornton