The market has been extremely bullish, one-time framing higher since the 18-month cycle low on 7/19. That means that we’ve never traded below the prior day’s low in all of those sessions. The market achieved a new all-time high in the overnight session, almost completing the measured move from the breakout range yesterday.
The three key levels today are the new all-time high and overnight high (ONH) at 4416.75, the RTH low at 4397, and the overnight low (ONL) at 4391.75. The overnight low essentially shares the same level as the top of the single prints. Any failure today to cross below that RTH Low keeps the one-time framing going. Crossing below it sets us up for a pullback and could morph into a trading range that balances into the Fed meeting.
The new ATH was made in an overnight session. Carry it forward as insecure. GOOGL, AAPL, and MSFT report after the bell tonight. Together they make up 25% of the NDX. As such there may be some “wait and see” tone to the market today.
With current prices are very close to overnight halfback, there is little to guide us at the open. Higher odds trades will develop later rather than earlier today.
A break of the RTH low would interrupt the one-time framing dynamic, has the potential to attract sellers, or at the very least, could trigger stops. Keep that in mind should the price move towards that point. Target the ONL and top of the single print area and monitor for continuation.
S&P 500 futures are currently down the exact same amount as the NASDAQ 100 futures are positive. That generally doesn’t bode well for any major change in tone.
Good luck today.
A.F. Thornton