It is another Fed day. We await Chair Powell’s remarks at 10:00 am EST – the Jackson Hole virtual conference epitaph. Why not Paris? Why not London? Why Jackson Hole? After all, in the virtual world, you can travel anywhere without a vaccine passport. At least for now.
And we are in the midst of the nominal 10-day wave markdown. I don’t talk about that cycle much; it has been largely invisible in the raging bull market. But when the market starts to care about anything, it shows up. But it barely lasts a day or two.
Use yesterday’s RTH candle as your new trading range. Opening above and staying above yesterday’s RTH low at 4465 and the Navigator Trigger line and 5-day line on the daily chart are key to maintaining the bull case.
After that, target the halfway point at 4478.50 as your bias threshold for the day. Closing 30-min candles above it is bullish, and closing them below is bearish – at least for the intraday period.
Pushing above yesterday’s candle high at 4492 opens the door to the all-time high at 4498. Then, in only these blessed and temporary times, we move towards the current Armageddon high at 4600.
Closing candles below yesterday’s low at 4465 opens the door to the top of the gap around 4450, then the bottom of the gap around 4440. I will leave it to your imagination from there.
Yesterday’s epilogue and a few more comments will follow my morning misery sacrifice listening to Fed speak. I will be your translator.
Fridays can be good days, but the S&P 500 is pushing its Weekly Expected Move high at the all-time-high of 4498. So in the best of forecasts today, they will leave us hanging for another weekend.
Good luck today – we will need it.
A.F. Thornton