I am still not quite set up after a temporary cross country move, but should be fully operational later today.
Meanwhile, the market continues to climb the wall of worry. Again, I am watching both sentiment and momentum carefully. Breadth improved last week and is becoming less of a concern.
More concerning is a two-fold problem developing in China. First, they have been lying about their growth and GDP. No surprise there. I recall the old Soviet military parades. We now know that the missiles, etc. were fakes – fancy balloons.
But the Chinese commercial real estate market is teetering. Bonds of their largest real estate developer collapsed on Friday, halting the Shanghei exchange for a time. A lot of other Chinese bonds will suffer in sympathy.
These markets are like a pile of kindling. All it takes is a match to light the fire. We don’t know what the catalyst will be, but likely it will come from a quiet, unexpected corner of the world. So I am watching events carefully.
Meanwhile, stick to the balance range as your bull/bear guide. Closing above 4550 is bullish, below 4530 is bearish. The target remains 4600
More details to follow later today.
A.F. Thornton