Rent a Rally? 11-14-2022

Good Morning:

• Futures are off slightly to 3985 after a quiet overnight session. 4000 remains the large resistance/pin area and is likely in play until 11/18 OPEX (monthly options expiration). 
• Above that level for today, we note 4024 and 4040 resistance. Support shows at 3976 ad 3948.
• The “Pain Trade” is still higher. I have targets up to 4150.
• This rally seems different, and too many people think it will fall apart. The probabilities are that it won’t fall apart quite this soon. 
• Note the comparison between the S&P 500 daily chart and the composite seasonality chart above. All the market has done so far is follow the typical pattern for a mid-term election cycle. The real bear may still lie ahead of us.
• For now, the market is a bit ahead of itself, so consolidation or even a slight dip into 11/18 OPEX (monthly expiration) is possible.
•  I am putting together an extensive, post-election video that will come out late today.
• Meanwhile, we are in a Navigator Swing buy signal. We are “renting” the rally for now. We are riding the hourly charts for entries and exits.

A.F. Thornton