Founder's Trading Journal by 0 Comment Dow Jones Industrial Average - Weekly Chart Foldback (Blue) and 60-Year Cycle (Green). Chart inspired by Fiorente2@substack.com. Good Morning:Happy Lunar New Year! We managed to get through monthly options expiration on Friday, and the market now has a chance to reset its direction for the Fed meeting in early February.The market got a positive lift from short-covering by the DTE crowd going into the expiration. And it triggered another swing buy signal for the Navigator Swing Strategy at 3939.25.Lately, we have been renting the index for a while, comfortably exiting when the swing indicators tell us to hit the bench. But is it time to “own” the index because a major low has been achieved? Unfortunately, caution is still warranted. We have talked about the pattern before. It starts with the next Fed meeting (and rate announcement) in early February.Over the past three meetings, the Fed teased the investment community a few weeks ahead with mixed rhetoric about a pivot. A rally ensued, and the Fed took advantage of the upswing to aggressively raise rates again. The market heads lower on the disappointment. Will they do it again?And therein lies the rub. The market wants to go up, and of that, I have little doubt. The 60-year master cycle (green dotted line) could give us a few more days, as suggested above – though it should be close to peaking. The Foldback (blue line) also means higher prices for a few days. A Foldback is where prices emulate the progression of the recent decline in a mirror image advance on the right side of the chart.After the Blue and Green dotted lines peak, we get the markdown into February/March, where a cluster of cycles – Hurst and Gann – are slated to the bottom.The question would be, how low can it go in the anticipated decline? Absent a catalyst, I don’t see it going past the October low. In fact, from recent behavior, I don’t see it even going that far. Current behavior across multiple asset classes has been bullish.Note the bullish behavior of Dr. Copper. Copper Futures - Daily Chart - Already Cleared the 200-Day Line. Support lies at 3965-3970, which envelops the 200-day line (magenta). This is the fourth attempt to take the line. Note the reversal (higher) pattern projecting 4200 if the line is successfully conquered. S&P 500 Index Futures - Daily Charts / Key Levels Resistance lies at 4088, then 4135 on the way to the target.Remember, if 4000 is taken out, then 4050 and 4100 are the next major hurdles.I will be in the Trading Room Tuesday-Friday this week.Red Letter Reports this week are Durable Goods and 4th Quarter GDP on Thursday, then PCE Inflation, Personal Income, and Personal Spending on Friday.A.F. Thornton
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