View from The Top Down – 8/1/2021

Priced for Perfection

The Navigator Algorithm system signals appear in the chart above calculated as of tonight with the Globex activity thus far. Note that the “Strength” label continues to flash the yellow warning light. I like to see this at 20 or above. As such, the algorithm has painted a preliminary sell arrow on the chart. This is usually the first warning in the sequence. The bottom line is that I am barely bullish up to the measured move targets right under 4550. We remain in our previous positions, 60% S&P 500, 10% Financials, and 10% Energy. You can be in the cash sectors or options on the SPY, XLF, and XLE.

Having said all of that, and at these levels, the markets are priced for perfection. Some yellow flags in my work are counseling us to be cautious. We need to keep moving our stops up with the 5-day EMA and stay extremely vigilant. Conservative investors should already have their money under the pillow – not in this market.

As communicated Friday morning, the Founders group was stopped out of our S&P 500 futures position Thursday night for a very nice profit. Futures are highly leveraged and must be treated a bit more cautiously than options or cash positions. While we came close to getting stopped out of our remaining positions in the SPY, XLF, and XLE this past Friday on the Amazon earnings miss, the positions held their ground. In fact, the entire session was a dance around our stop line, the 5-day EMA. You can see the details in tomorrow morning’s Pre-Market Outlook.

For the sake of time and brevity, I will flip through the screens from the broadest to the narrowest perspective, referencing the notated charts if you wish to print them. I will be publishing these updated, notated charts nightly on the Website. You will receive a link to view them tomorrow.

Monthly Chart Perspective

1. The Navigator Algo is in extreme overbought territory on the monthly chart with price closing 18% above the mean, 10% above the Algo Trigger, and above the 3-ATR outer extreme K-Band.
2. The spreads are historically high, unsustainable and require nothing short of “perfection” in the economy, interest rates and corporate earnings. The situation is comparable to the 2017 blowoff right before the Fed’s last “Taper Tantrum.” As you might recall, the Fed tried to taper the first Quantitative Easing from the 2008 financial crisis and the market went into a 20% correction. This began a 30-month consolidation, also related to the last administration’s tariff policies.
3. July was the 6th consecutive monthly gain for the S&P cash index. This has not happened in 10 years. Therefore, a 7th bull bar would be even more unusual. Also, we move into seasonal weakness in August and September. Consequently, August should close below its open to form a bear bar and begin some kind of consolidation for at least a couple of months.
4. Note that similar advice would have failed in August 2017, as the market went into a parabolic blow-off stage ignoring any August/Se[tember weakness. Also note that my similar thoughts about how July 2021 would unfold underestimated the market.
5. Also note that it is not unusual for the market to skip a deep cut in the first 18-month cycle dip following a severe bear market and a four-year cycle low such as we experienced at the bottom of the bear in March 2020.
6. Bulls will argue that we have risen out of a 30-month consolidation, with a friendly Fed and a lot of firepower. They will also argue that rotation from one group to the other will keep the market afloat. Yet, that is exactly what can create a lengthy trading range.
7. All of the important measured move targets from the March 2020 low congregate between 4500 and 4600, so I would be hard-pressed to have confidence above those levels. We could easily be stopped out before we get there, but the probabilities are that 4550 or so is our next destination.
8. The year-long rally is either a tight bull channel or a parabolic wedge. Because the rally is so strong, bulls will buy the pullback when it manifests, whether it is a 10% or 20% correction.
9. If the projections are achieved. the market likely will overshoot the top of the monthly micro bull channel, in addition to the 3-ATR K-Bands, increasing the odds of attracting sellers.

Weekly Chart Perspective

1. This past week was a bear doji bar, indicating nearly equal power between bulls and bears as the week closed near its open. The doji could be interpreted as a weak sell signal bar, and the weekly chart is extremely overbought.
2. Yet, the S&P 500 has another “V” reversal pattern on the daily chart and there are similar head and shoulders reversal patterns in the Dow, Russell 2000, and other indexes, not to mention some of their key member stocks.
3. This indicates a high probability of one more push higher into the measured move targets between 4500 and 4600. Beyond that is the 2009 bull top channel line which would require a blow-off of historic magnitude to achieve anytime soon. Achieving the top channel line of the 2009 bull market is not probable without a pullback and some consolidation.
4. The bulls were not able to create a follow-through bar after breaking into new highs from last week’s outside bull bar. We have had a small pullback trend (micro-channel) for 60 weeks, which is unusual, unsustainable, parabolic, and climactic. This mearly confirms what we see on the monthly chart.
5. The bulls have the potential bottoming of the 18-month cycle on their side, which could result in a tight trend upward but at a very mild slope. Of course, the cycle may yet to have bottomed. If it has, the cycle low also may help contain a 5% or more consolidation range depending on where the market finally peaks.
6. A tight bull channel/small pullback trend typically ends with a big pullback. The biggest pullback so far was the 10% selloff in September. A bigger pullback means 15% to 20%.
7. Traders have bought every dip/reversal for a year. They know the odds are that buying one of these dips will fail soon. However, they also know that it still makes sense to buy them until it stops working.
8. When there is a successful trend reversal, there is not a consensus that it will succeed until it is already half over. Until there is a strong, clear reversal, traders will continue to buy every 1 – 2 bar (week) selloff.
9. A small pullback bull trend is a sign of very eager bulls. They are buying small pullbacks because they doubt there will be a big pullback.
10. Even once there is a big pullback (15% – 20%), investors will still buy it, betting that there will be a test of the old high. Consequently, the 1st reversal down will still be minor on the scale of things, even if it is 20%.
11. As set forth above, the next targets for the bulls are the trend channel line and the measured move up around 4550.

Daily Chart Perspective

1. The market held both the 5-day EMA stop and Algo Trigger Line Friday, though just barely. So no sell signal yet, except on an overnight stop that was triggered in the Founder’s Group S&P 500 futures position.
2. Friday could be considered to have triggered a micro double top sell signal, but it is a low-probability sell signal given Thursday’s bull bar.
3. There is also an expanding top with the July 7 and July 14 highs and July 8th and 19th lows, and the Emini is near the top of the bull channel, using the May 7 and July 14 highs. Expanding triangles (broadening formations) are trading ranges but can be topping patterns. While you can legitimately draw the pattern on the chart, I believe that the 18-month cycle low on July 19th negates it. Any new patterns should start after that low.
4. What is more apparent is the “V” reversal bottom in the S&P 500, which is also visible as a head and shoulders reversal pattern on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and Dow Jones Industrials (DIA).
5. Until there is a strong reversal down, traders will continue to buy the dips and bet on new highs.
6. The latest bear bars have tails below and small bodies, which means the bears are not selling into the close of bars. They lack conviction and are unwilling to sell low.
7. Also, there are no consecutive strong bear bars on the daily chart.
8. Until the bulls aggressively take profits and the bears generate sustained, aggressive selling, the bulls remain in control.
9. We will maintain our Navigator swing positions in the S&P 500, Financials (XLF), and Energy (XLE) until we violate our stops, achieve our measured move targets, get a solid Navigator Sell Signal, or see a parabolic climax bar.

Sentiment

The one good thing the bulls have on their side is fear. Fear is associated with troughs, not peaks. Friday’s high put/call ratio screamed fear loudly, kept our strategy in the game, and led to an anticipated short-covering rally into the close. More interestingly, the broader and more diversified CNN Fear & Greed Index currently shows extreme fear.

With such extreme fear, and all the weekend headlines calling for a crash, the probabilities favor the market going higher.

Risks and Conclusions

The current breadth and momentum divergences in the major indices could be a warning of trouble ahead. They could also be reflecting the stealth correction in value and cyclical stocks that should be bottoming with the 18-month cycle and perhaps benefitting from some profit-taking and rotation from technology and growth stocks. We need to see how this progresses from the proposed July 19th cycle low before drawing any definitive conclusions. It is on my radar.

The persistent rally in U.S. Treasury securities also remains a concern. This means interest rates have been falling while inflation has remained persistently high, and we are told the economy is booming. As the old saying goes, “this does not compute.”

In the past, the stock market has followed interest rates down with about a three-month lag. We have to watch this relationship between stocks and treasuries carefully. The treasury rally could be an early warning that institutions are battening down the hatches, preparing for a stock market storm.

Finally (and likely related to the rally in treasuries), the Delta variant of the China Virus is a winner in the game of survival of the fittest. In other words, it is a clever and virulent mutation.

In short (and I am not a doctor), the spikes are more efficient at attaching themselves and invading you. This makes it more contagious. For example, if a person with the first strain infected three people, a Delta strain person would infect six. While there is no evidence that the virus is more deadly, it has infected both already vaccinated and younger people – including children.

So far, symptoms have been relatively mild for the young and some vaccinated people. Treatment modalities have improved considerably. Despite this, fear sells everything from website clicks to cable news, elections, and “government protection.” Reliable information and good advice are scarce.

To determine the size of the problem, we need to keep an eye on the Transport Sector (IYT) and the Travel and Leisure Sector (AWAY) for clues as to how this is affecting consumer choices. These two sectors look like they are at the bottom of a waterfall. They are communicating that the Delta Variant is a problem. Then again, sell the rumor buy the news?

The bottom line remains that we maintain our positions with tight stops in a risky and overbought market, intending to achieve the aforementioned targets while proceeding cautiously.

As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton