| Archimedes Methodologies

Good Morning:

Well, dear, not exactly. it is a good thing we went back to cash yesterday with a nice scalp under our belt. The hourly charts continue to be THE reliable harmonic for the current tape.
And the price action (pre-market) dovetails with the path forecasted in chart above, which shows the seasonal tendency for December. There is a 65% probability we peak about now and dip into mid-month. That times with the Fed rate announcement and monthly options expiration.
And so, in our final data point this week, the November jobs report this morning blew out the consensus number at 200,000 new jobs, coming in at 263,000. Of course, we still have to analyze how much the Orwell Administration cooked the books, as has been their habit.
Needless to say, recession hungry Miss Market is not happy! This is one of those “hot” prints feared and discussed as a risk earlier this week.
As a side note, average hourly earnings were up, but not enough to keep up with inflation. And the average work week is hovering around 34 hours. Where the hell are we, Europe?
Back to the market, resistance remains at a band above from 4100 – 4110 (the SPX Call Wall + the SPY 410 Call Wall). There is resistance above there at 4126.
Still, mark any SPX move >4110 as overbought.
Support shows at 4050-4055 (SPY 405), then 4000.
Given where we are, we vote for the typical December pattern in the chart above, with must-hold support at 4000 for any bull case to remain alive.

There is a lot not to like about this latest rally leg. It is wide and disjointed compared to the rallies earlier this year.
And we have now completed our three pushes-up in the bearish rising wedge pattern.
There are lots of negative divergences in the pattern. And accumulation lacks the strength of the previous run-ups.
And the volume on the explosive up day Wednesday looks like a spikey peak.
On the positive side, if the foldback marked in the chart above crosses above the August 16 high, I expect the S&P 500 to move into the crest of the foldback.
Measured moves may indicate a potential target price/time area but are certainly not guaranteed.
Also. the accumulation indicator (lower chart) suggests that accumulation lags compared to early swings.
Bullish investors could try to buy the 4000 area on this dip but keep your stop tight.
Otherwise, it might be best to look for an entry in mid-December.

As always, stay tuned, and have a great weekend.

A.F. Thornton