Founder's Trading Journal by 0 Comment S&P 500 Index - 60-year Cycle Good Morning:Futures were quiet overnight with a slightly negative bent. Price is trading near 3925 at this writing. The key levels we are watching remain unchanged, with the one-day implied move at 0.95%.Support shows at the WEM low at 3930, then 3910 (SPY 390) – 3900, with key resistance at 3950-3960 (SPY 395). Resistance above there is at 4000.Overnight traders are testing prices below yesterday’s low, which casts a negative pale at the open, should prices find acceptance at these levels.But Dealers should also defend 3930, and prices below that number should be out of the question for the rest of the week.Woulda, coulda, shoulda, right? The WEM range has been less reliable since the MEME and DTE crowd stepped in, but we will note the projected WEM low for the record.For decades now, arbs run the market up before the first week of the last month of the calendar quarter and then short S&P 500 index products for a week or so.Add tax selling to the equation in a down year like 2022, and you can see the ensuing pattern of a dip into mid-month.This year, we have the Fed Meeting uncertainty and monthly/quarterly options and futures expiration to add to the picture.So regardless of anything else, the market will likely follow the December script it has tracked since the late 1800s and laid out in these pages last week.In my view, it simply started a few days early this year.So do we get the next bear leg – taking us to new lows?That depends on whether the longer, 60-year cycle has already bottomed.We cannot know that yet for sure. The “scheduled” bottom was October 22. But we can continue to respect the 12/1 Navigator Swing sell signal until the next buy signal paints.In the meantime, let’s follow the December pattern and patiently await Santa, who usually shows up around December 15.I will be in the trading room again tomorrow. In the meantime, the live charts are up.A.F. Thornton
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