Founder's Trading Journal Year-End or the End of Us? by AF Thornton Dec 18, 2022 0 Comment Elliott Wave Count - S&P 500 Index Good Evening: Well, we end 2022 on somewhat of a gloomy note. but all is not lost as long as I and many others can still rant and complain. and we still can. our country has been through worse and survived. I am taking some time off this week, but will still post the live charts in the founders’ Room. There will be no public commentaries unless a swing buy signal develops from our current cash/short posture. Above is an update of the current Elliott wave analysis indicating that the S&P 500 Index may be launching an Elliott triple three wave downward, which would be rather ominous if the forecast is correct. Daneric (who prepares the chart) is as good as anyone I know on this subject, so I present it as something to keep in your narrative. The crash crowd rightly focuses on this count as evidence that the market is reaching that lehman moment we saw in 2008. the market dropped off a cliff then, even though it had been in an orderly Bear decline for months. I dont want to dismiss the Elliott arguments out of hand, but we likely need a catalyst to trigger the dastardly Triple Three Down scenario. And there is no shortage of fires that could ignite in the current environment. All of the master cycles, no matter how I combine them, point to downward pressure on the major indexes through late february 2023. having said that, years that end in “3” are typically rally/recovery years with few exceptions. So even if the market disappoints in the first few months, the tendency from there is a sharp rise. I also want to announce our first Trading Academy scheduled for January 19-22, 2023. Originally, we were going to prepare the Academy for a European destination. But With Such volatile global events, I have delayed my own travels to greece and will finalize a destination in Southern California instead. The Academy will not be inexpensive and will be limited to 10 participants. I will teach many of my methods, algorithms, and Coveted codes (never before revealed including WD Gann’s “Master Time Factor”). On Thursday and Friday, we will trade the systems live with real money so that you can see the predicted turns and systems in Real Time. We will Teach you how to predict turns on the daily charts well in advance and how we create our annual composite forecast. The 2022 Composite forecast has a 91% correclation to the S&P 500 index so far. participants also will receive the indicators needed to duplicate Our results on Their Own trading systems. Participants will be required to sign non-disclosure agreements as we do not want our codes and methods widely disseminated. There will be a money-back guarantee. I would not recommend this academy presentation for newbies, but Any attendee with basic market experience and knowledge will walk away able to duplicate our results, which have never been less than triple-digit annual returns. Any parent pondering sending their child to a woke college for a $150,000 communist indoctrination would be far better off sending their young adult to this Academy to learn a life skill that fosters unlimited freedom. More details will follow with our annual forecast coming out after Christmas, but I wanted you to make a mental note and reserve the date if you are interested. Meanwhile, we remain in an algrorithm Swing sell signal on all time frames, with some of our group using the sell signal to short the market. Having broken a 200-point balance range Friday, a move down toward 3700 on the S&P 500 is likely, unless price immediately returns back inside the Balance range – above 3900. That is still possible as dealers clear their books from friday’s Expiration on Monday. Remember the phrase, “turnaround Tuesday.” Below is an updated picture of the Cycles Influencing Year-End, and I have added the Four-Year Presidential cycle as an adjuct to the analysis: S&P 500 Index Year End Cycle Invitations to Santa Claus Thus far, the market is tracking the year-end script. Also, remember that the Winter Solstice is December 21 and can frequently result in a turn opposite to the Market’s direction coming into the astrological date. Why does this happen? Same reason Emergency Rooms crowd on a full moon. Your guess is as good as ours. Forgive my silence for the rest of this week. Even I must take a few days off as much as I love trading and complaining about everything on these pages. And I will be working on that annual forecast for 2023, which gets a bit heady sometimes. Merry Christmas! A.F. Thornton
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AF Thornton Website: https://tradingarchimedes.com A.F. "Arthur" Thornton is an expert in logic, risk/reward quantification, market fractals, pattern recognition and asset class behavioral analysis with 34 years devoted to developing algorithmic and quantitative trading systems. In addition to trading his own capital, Mr. Thornton designs custom algorithmic and quantitative trading systems for a small and exclusive group of exceptionally qualified traders.