Founder's Trading Journal Buy Signal? Dec 29, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Afternoon,Like an old friend you haven’t heard from in a while, a Navigator Swing Buy signal has followed the record-setting put/call ratio pointed out yesterday.The Buy signal triggered intraday at 3860 and requires a close above that level to be valid today.The signal also follows an hourly buy signal at 3828 this morning.The Founders’ Group is scaling in and will use sustained trading (a few hours) below the five-day line as a stop (currently 3850 or about 10 points).The Founders’ Group entered at the close today and will try to add at the next retracement to the five-day line.We are in low-volume holiday trading, so the Founders’ Group confidence in the signal is slightly lower than usual.The rally here is also consistent with the 80-day cycle trough, December seasonal pattern, and the Master Cycle path pointed out in my past few writings.We will encounter major resistance about 100 points higher at 3960 as the first hurdle for the bulls to conquer.Remember that we merely expect a rally here, not the end of the bear market. And there is a risk that this is a holiday trading week flash in the pan.Nevertheless, the market is doing what we forecasted, so why not take advantage?And wouldn’t the crows be surprised if the bear ended in October 2022Do you know what they say? Bear markets often end with a whimper, and nobody rings a bell to tell you it is over.Realistically, the bear has not likely ended, but we always keep an open mind. We will follow the price action wherever it leads.Back to my vacation, as it were.A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Rally Alert Dec 28, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment The CBOE Put/Call Ratio is at 1.74 ($PCall on TOS), a level associated with the March 2020 Covid Panic low, And exceeding every peak since then. Given that we are in the 80-day cycle trough, a short-covering rally might materialize soon. CNN Fear/Greed Sentiment has also returned to the “Fear” Mode. I cannot say how long the rally would last, but it could run a few days into year-end, per the Master Cycle forecast, and 3800 has been providing solid support for now. I am not saying buy or sell, nor do we have a buy signal yet, but the put/call ratio at these levels usually signifies that an intermediate low is near. A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Forecast Into 2023 Dec 27, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment S&P 500 Index - Master Forecast Update (Data Sourced Fiorente2) Good Evening:The Navigator Swing Strategy remains in its 12/5 sell signal, though we have enjoyed some Profitable round trips on the hourly charts. The last hourly buy signal is still in force from 12/22.Tonight, prices gapped higher as we headed into the 2022 final trading week, which can be full of surprises. It is a good time to rest, except for the bravest traders among us. Further tax loss selling and portfolio managers shuffling the decks will have far more influence on price behavior than normal cyclical forces this coming week.Price is pushing a Navigator Swing Buy signal on the daily chart, which could arrive with a close above 3995 tomorrow.I will take some time off again this week, so this will be my only public commentary until 2023.As always, premium subscribers will still find updates and Live charts in the Founder’s Room.Though I am still deep into the 2023 Forecast and Details, I thought I would give you a sneak peek.The Master Forecast is above, and I carved out the end of Year section below. The dotted black vertical lines are the turn dates for the master cycle, with the solid lines tracking some Fibonacci turn dates from the weekly chart. Magnified Slice of Forecast into 2023 - S&P 500 Index (Data Sourced Fiorente2) The Blue Line is the Projected path for the cycle composite, which is seen rising slightly into year-end, then declining into early February before rallying into late march. Sometimes these cycles invert, so it is best to pay attention to the anticipated turn dates rather than what the price might do in terms of amplitude, positively or negatively.The 18-month Hurst cycle also still weighs the price down into February 2023 before the price can rally into the spring. I will go out on a limb here – but my work indicates that 2023 will surprise the crowd to the upside and perhaps significantly.And it gets more interesting when you track the 100-year cycle from 1920-1930. There are a lot of similarities between then and now. We have More Deficit Spending from the Uniparty, More Inflation, and war profiteering; the difference is that In this Analogy, President Orwell and the Globalists are Hitler, and the Collective west is the Weimar Republic. It took a Grocery basket of German Marks to buy a loaf of bread when hyperinflation hit germany. Shall I say, “Coming to a Theater Near You Soon?”This political suicide won’t end well, but it takes longer than we usually think to achieve the final collapse.We could see this Decade play out just like the 1920s, with the crash that the crowd has been expecting not arriving until 2029. And a stupifying rally could precede it.Tracking The S&P 500 for the Decade from 1960 to 1970 is another accurate forecasting Track for the market at hand, as I have proposed since January last year. Our S&P 500 Master Forecast correlation for 2022, using 1962 as the primary component in the composite, is 87% at this writing. The correlation is phenomenal for a year with so much fed intervention. Comparing S&P 500 Index 1962 and 2022 The bottom line is that history repeats, and the 60-year cycle is arguably the most important in forecasting Future market behavior. And what else do we know about the situation 60 years ago? Does the Cuban Missile crisis ring a bell? Aren’t the same players back at it again? Isn’t the risk of Nuclear War the highest since then? How about the assassination of Japanese Prime Minister Abe this year? What President was assassinated 60 years ago, in 1962? Remember that this kind of cycle forecasting differs from Hurst cycles, which helps us forecast troughs that occur more symmetrically over time. When we forecast from master cycle composites, we can predict every turn in the market ahead of us with about 85% to 90% accuracy. When we know to expect a turn, we use the algorithms and our other work to catch them. It is a harmonious, symbiotic relationship. Applying this methodology is how we achieve triple-digit returns year after year. The timing of the turns is more important than the price. But we can predict price with reasonable accuracy as well. This coming week, 2023 Forecasts for the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, FTSE, AEX, DAX, NSEL, SSEC, HSI, N225, ASX AO, CRB-Index, Wheat, Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Ethereum, U.S. Treasuries, and the U.S. Dollar will be available to premium Subscribers. I wish all of you a Happy and Prosperous New Year! A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Year-End or the End of Us? Dec 18, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Elliott Wave Count - S&P 500 Index Good Evening: Well, we end 2022 on somewhat of a gloomy note. but all is not lost as long as I and many others can still rant and complain. and we still can. our country has been through worse and survived. I am taking some time off this week, but will still post the live charts in the founders’ Room. There will be no public commentaries unless a swing buy signal develops from our current cash/short posture. Above is an update of the current Elliott wave analysis indicating that the S&P 500 Index may be launching an Elliott triple three wave downward, which would be rather ominous if the forecast is correct. Daneric (who prepares the chart) is as good as anyone I know on this subject, so I present it as something to keep in your narrative. The crash crowd rightly focuses on this count as evidence that the market is reaching that lehman moment we saw in 2008. the market dropped off a cliff then, even though it had been in an orderly Bear decline for months. I dont want to dismiss the Elliott arguments out of hand, but we likely need a catalyst to trigger the dastardly Triple Three Down scenario. And there is no shortage of fires that could ignite in the current environment. All of the master cycles, no matter how I combine them, point to downward pressure on the major indexes through late february 2023. having said that, years that end in “3” are typically rally/recovery years with few exceptions. So even if the market disappoints in the first few months, the tendency from there is a sharp rise. I also want to announce our first Trading Academy scheduled for January 19-22, 2023. Originally, we were going to prepare the Academy for a European destination. But With Such volatile global events, I have delayed my own travels to greece and will finalize a destination in Southern California instead. The Academy will not be inexpensive and will be limited to 10 participants. I will teach many of my methods, algorithms, and Coveted codes (never before revealed including WD Gann’s “Master Time Factor”). On Thursday and Friday, we will trade the systems live with real money so that you can see the predicted turns and systems in Real Time. We will Teach you how to predict turns on the daily charts well in advance and how we create our annual composite forecast. The 2022 Composite forecast has a 91% correclation to the S&P 500 index so far. participants also will receive the indicators needed to duplicate Our results on Their Own trading systems. Participants will be required to sign non-disclosure agreements as we do not want our codes and methods widely disseminated. There will be a money-back guarantee. I would not recommend this academy presentation for newbies, but Any attendee with basic market experience and knowledge will walk away able to duplicate our results, which have never been less than triple-digit annual returns. Any parent pondering sending their child to a woke college for a $150,000 communist indoctrination would be far better off sending their young adult to this Academy to learn a life skill that fosters unlimited freedom. More details will follow with our annual forecast coming out after Christmas, but I wanted you to make a mental note and reserve the date if you are interested. Meanwhile, we remain in an algrorithm Swing sell signal on all time frames, with some of our group using the sell signal to short the market. Having broken a 200-point balance range Friday, a move down toward 3700 on the S&P 500 is likely, unless price immediately returns back inside the Balance range – above 3900. That is still possible as dealers clear their books from friday’s Expiration on Monday. Remember the phrase, “turnaround Tuesday.” Below is an updated picture of the Cycles Influencing Year-End, and I have added the Four-Year Presidential cycle as an adjuct to the analysis: S&P 500 Index Year End Cycle Invitations to Santa Claus Thus far, the market is tracking the year-end script. Also, remember that the Winter Solstice is December 21 and can frequently result in a turn opposite to the Market’s direction coming into the astrological date. Why does this happen? Same reason Emergency Rooms crowd on a full moon. Your guess is as good as ours. Forgive my silence for the rest of this week. Even I must take a few days off as much as I love trading and complaining about everything on these pages. And I will be working on that annual forecast for 2023, which gets a bit heady sometimes. Merry Christmas! A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Grab Your Broom – Today is the Witch’s Brew Dec 16, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning: Futures dropped ~1% to 3885 overnight, and the S&P opened with a True Gap Lower and Gap Rules on tap – assuming one should Day trade at all on Quadruple Witching expiration. 3900 is the key level today and is currently overhead resistance. This is followed by 3925 (the Volatility Trigger) and 3950. Key downside levels are 3878 and 3800 (SPY 380 Put Wall). As we painted an official sell signal yesterday at 3995, we advise caution as the risk of moving sharply lower is elevated. Recall that below 3900, the market is dominated by puts, and implied volatility could spike. This is a formula for large, “panicky” moves lower. The biggest driver today is expiration, the 2nd largest on record (in delta terms). Today is Quadruple Expiration – so weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual options and futures expire and roll. As such, we don’t try to trade these days. There are many distortions, and it is far better to sit them out. The Trading Room will be closed today. As I mentioned over the past week, Tuesday is usually the time to get positioned for year-end. The market will start with a clean slate (from an options perspective). Balance Rules are on the table with the bottom end at 3900. On December 13, the spike high, breakout, and reversal was a great example of a breakout from balance (4100) failure that brought us back to the other end of the balance range at 3900, where we find ourselves now. Will we now see the same fakeout and reversal at the bottom of the balance range at 3900? Could we go back to the other end at 4100? Stay Tuned, A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Chairman Pow Strikes Again! Dec 15, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:No surprises – Fed Chairman Powell outlined the script I had suggested the past few days. The script has been that he teases a potential pivot about two weeks ahead of the FOMC meeting. The market goes up into the meeting. Then, with the flexibility provided by the rally, he zaps the market with a hawkish move.In this way, Powell has given us an orderly bear market decline and likely avoided the crash everyone feared.So the market today has taken out all the important support and is headed into the 80-day cycle trough at mid-month, as forecast by the long-term composites we published last week.Price is now at the bottom of the recent balance range at 3925, and the Founder’s group is short from 3995. Breakouts and breakdowns fail about 80% of the time, so we cannot count on a breakdown from balance.We will likely cover the short in this range here, we are monitoring the situation, but we would be comfortable shorting again if the price closes below the 3995 level today. As set forth a few days ago, the measured move on the break of 3900 is approximately 3700.Let’s see what happens – and do our best to stay objective.A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Trick, Trap, & Trade – Orwell Springs A Leak Dec 14, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Stunning CPI Report Leak Good Morning:I answered a few emails this morning that motivated some deep thinking. and No, truly, I don’t have a crystal ball though it may seem like it sometimes. I am simply a Contrarian skeptic.Yesterday’s pre-market commentary was merely one of my periodic rants. I wasn’t prepared for the stunning market manipulation and cheating that ensued thereafter – I am suspicious of the current regime, and gave them plenty benenfit of the doubt when they first stole took office. And we still made a few hundred dollars in the Trading Room despite it all.First, the Markets – Then The Rant as to the markets, Key levels remain largely unchanged in the S&P 500, with resistance at 4050/4060 (SPY405), then 4100. As Fed Chairman Powell is on deck today at 2 PM EsT, we must include one more resistance line above at 4148. the most critical Support lies below at 4000 (the largest open interest strike), followed by 3960 (SPY 395), 3950, and finally 3900.Yesterday’s main takeaway (besides the insider cheating discussed below) was the addition of calls to higher S&P strikes. These calls were likely sold into yesterday morning’s pop, as implied volatility was very rich. We saw a +7% increase in SPX call open interest and a -2% reduction in put interest. Further, the skew remains very flat, with risk reversal at -.04. Understandably, the CPI did nothing to add fear to markets.Yesterday’s fade seemed to leave many scratching their heads but made complete sense according to an options lens. Trickster & Company manipulated options prices so high that, once the event (CPI) fired, the move collapsed on itself.There was very little real money being deployed by the system. It’s unlikely big money would jump the main FOMC event today – unless they already know the number like yesterday’s cheaters.The ironic part is that today’s DEM expects a much smaller move than yesterday.It is ironic because it’s Powell that will determine the path of asset prices in the future – not a lagging CPI Report.In line with options pricing in a ~1.5% move today, the entire SPX term structure has shifted lower.The market is pricing in lower future volatility now, as the assumption is Powell may be less aggressive on rates.Santa Claus may be on deck if the market chews yesterday’s rejection tail. But the all-clear comes next week after expiration. We should have a good handle on positioning by Tuesday morning.On Yesterday’s Report Leak, Insider Trading, and Cheating…Then I ask myself – if the Orwell comrades are willing to (i) oust a sitting President in a Coup D’etat (or several), (ii) openly sabotage voter equipment to steal elections, (iii) open our Southern Border in flagrant violation of immigration laws (and give each illegal a new phone and prepaid Visa card), (iii) arrest and sequester FTX’s SBF yesterday so he cannot testify to Congress about the Democrats’ crypto bribery and Ukraine money laundering operation, (iv) rob the U.S. Treasury and Taxpayers to line their pockets and consolidate permanent power, then why wouldn’t they rig the stock market to flood their money coffers?After all, who is the biggest Democrat donor? Right, Hedge Fund investor George Soros (now that Sam Bankman Friedman and FTX are defunct. A little tit for tat for the Wall Street donors ahead of important government economic reports that move the markets? I don’t know who is behind all this, but I think this incestuous spider web of players and ideologies is all related.And that now leaves us with What will happen with the Fed Interest Rate Announcement later today? Is that going to be rigged too?I typically sit these reports out precisely because I am so skeptical about everything – but yesterday was beyond stunning. I will sit out today’s announcement too. I will let it settle enough to allow the crooks to finish their work and move on.It used to take months for the market to move 4%, and yesterday it moved 4% in one trading session.You can bet that the fortunes of legitimate players were lost yesterday, and I am sure some dealers and individual investors are headed to bankruptcy today.This is our reality now – cheating, corruption, and degradation of morals. This is the American Marxist Left in all its glory, as they rob the U.S. Treasury and consolidate their permanent rule of this Country.The Uniparty loves, admires, and fully intends to implement the Chinese authoritarian and surveillance state here. That is where we are headed, folks. Don’t believe me? Listen to the Marxists’ Chief Architect, World Economic Forum CEO Klaus Barbie Schwab: Right now, the lame-duck Democrat Congress, with the help of RINOS like Mitch McConnel and Mitt Romney, is trying to pass Amnesty for millions of illegals. The Democrat -Controlled House is attempting to pass a one-year “omnibus,” $4 trillion budget, allowing the Dems to spend the money almost any way they want with no specific earmarks. That way, the new Republican Majority House cannot use its constitutional purse strings to rein in spending or Democrats for another year.And then there is this – isn’t it highly suspicious that Attorney General Merrick Garland made a special taxpayer-funded trip to Ukraine to kiss Zelensky’s ring?WTF does the U.S. Attorney General have to do with the war in Ukraine? Did he pick up his FTX coin?What about teacher’s union President and Democrat loyalist Randi Weingarten? Why did she go to Ukraine? Why did she kiss Zelensky’s ring? Did she pick up her FTX coin too? And there are many more inexplicable examples. Maybe Zelensky is the anti-Christ in the flesh. I am kidding, but at these times, you cannot rule anything out!If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, etc.?Then, Putin drew a red line in the last few days. He says even one more missile into the Russian interior- and Putin will launch 200 Nukes. Does anyone realize that our military is rumored to be at Defcon 2?The Orwell administration’s response to Putin – President Orwell authorizes Ukraine to launch drone strikes inside Russia, sends in Patriot Missiles, and creates a no-fly zone over Ukraine.Remember when President Orwell said a no-fly zone would lead to World War III?And where is the opposition to any of this? The lone opposition voices are far too few. It is a Uniparty now, and they are all in on the corruption, have bunkers to hide in, and live in fear of the bully Marxists. Or maybe they are all just authoritarian Marxists.If one must cheat to win, the thinking majority has summarily rejected their ideas and policies.If one must censor debate – it is because their ideas are so bad that they cannot stand up to scrutiny.If one must rig the stock market or profit on inside information, they are such lazy losers that they cannot compete against the rest of us who spend years learning and working hard for our money.And then there are the revelations from Twitter.The good news? Ron Desantis empaneled a grand jury in Florida yesterday to go after the vaccine fraud. Since we have lost the Federal Government to the Marxists, the only hope comes from the States and Decentralization.Elon Musk has put everything on the line to become an unlikely hero. Just watch what the Marxists try to do to him. Hopefully, other brave and similarly capable souls will follow. As he tweeted yesterday, the truth resonates.A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal GUILTY ON ALL CHARGES! Dec 13, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment S&P 500 Index Futures - Pre-CPI Annotated Chart Good Morning:First things first, I wrote this with a clear head before the CPI Report this morning. I could look smart or stupid – it goes with the territory.And after CPI today, the Fed will announce the latest Interest rate increase tomorrow.After the Fed fireworks, $3.5 Trillion in options and futures expire as the week progresses. SpotGamma Options Expiration Analysis It appears that the market wants to go up, is scared to be short, or is optimistic that the Fed is ready to restart the music. It does not seem to matter how many chairs are left or how close we are to the exit. In his last speech, Fed Chairman Powell pulled out a few doves, so the market cracked a smile. Consistent with its new-found optimism, the market closed above some important lines yesterday, including the 5-period Sell/Buy Stop line in all time frames – daily, weekly, and monthly. Yesterday also saw a high of the low bar (HOLB) pivot, and the price closed above our Algo Trigger. Globex, at this writing, is trading above yesterday’s high. If the CPI report pleases, you can be sure many insiders were tipped off. If nothing else is obvious in these turbulent times, we at least know that the Orwell Administration is corrupt to its core. The number is a lie anyway; real inflation is typically double the number. Of course, you already know that if you buy anything these days. We can’t all be as stupid as the Orwell clowns believe, though I am beginning to wonder how many stupid people really exist. It is likely many volumes higher than I ever thought. One day is not a trend, but yesterday’s volume supported the Pivot. Yet, we have seen this movie before. Fed Chairman Powell talks a little dovish a few weeks before the meeting to pump the market up, then dumps all over it with the announcement, thus avoiding a crash. As I have said all year, the better the market does into the meeting, the easier it is for the Fed to raise rates. And with the abysmal 10-year U.S. Treasury Auction yesterday, who can say what comes next? And don’t forget about the Fed selling off its balance sheet – another pale over the markets and interest rates if the Fed follows through, Perhaps President Orwell and his WEF comrades in Europe now see the consequences of stealing Russia’s reserves. Foreign countries no longer want to buy our treasuries because they don’t trust us and are sick and tired of being ordered around by our elites. I seriously don’t blame them. So who buys the U.S. debt? The Fed and the U.S. Treasury will buy most of it by printing more money. Do you see how that works? Rumors abound that they finally arrested FTX Crypto CEO Sam Bankman in the Bahamas, who Fried many investors from their assets. Perhaps Sam’s Orwell administration fix could be a Community service sentence to advise the U.S. Treasury and Fed on how to run their Ponzi scheme best. Anyway, Your guess is as good as mine for the next move, though the probabilities favor some positive tailwinds for the Stock indexes from here forward. We are coming into the next few days in cash, though some of our group went long on yesterday’s short-covering signal. we will deploy cash in either direction as the price action dictates. The Founders Group covered our short position yesterday, established on 12-1 at 4084. We cashed in at 3969 (adjusted for the March 2023 contract) for a gain of 115 points. It was a little bit early on our options butterfly, but profits are better than losses if the market decides to rally here – even if short-lived. And all the cycles and seasonal tendencies support the market pivoting in the next few sessions. After expiration (quadruple witching), the market will have a clean slate to work with next week. But my long-held view has not wavered – we are likely entering a long-term trading range yet to be solidified on the top end. We should continue to move sideways into the middle of the 100-year channel and perhaps experience dastardly drops along the way. This would be similar to the 18-year trading range we experienced in the late 1960s and 1970s. A lost decade if you will. I expect to revisit the October 13th low at least once early next year, if not more often. But I am not married to any scenario and will go with the flow and the Algorithms. Add to the narrative that individuals and professional money managers have likely taken their tax losses already. Professionals start reshuffling portfolios in December to put some lipstick on the pig before they report one of the worst years in recent memory. Even conservative, “balanced” portfolios are down 16% on the year. And as to “Guilty on All Charges?” Elon Musk and Twitter have the receipts to jail Fauci and others. My opinion is that Fauci is a murderer – no ifs and or butts. Sure, we suspected what was happening at Twitter all along, but it is stunning to see the evidence as Twitter drips it out daily. Sure, the FBI and CIA worked with Twitter to undermine a sitting President and support a Coup d’etat. But what is scarier is how the actual, brainwashed Twitter employees seriously believed in what they were doing. It is not unlike all the people who voted for and supported the Orwell coup all over this country. These people are real; the conservative losses are not all due to cheating. Those who fail to study history are doomed to repeat it. We have an entire generation indoctrinated by the Marxists. They represent unearned freedom in undisciplined hands. Very scary stuff! My favorite indicator for trading is still WWSHD – “When What Should Happen Doesn’t.” What does it mean when ABC, NBC, CBS, and other lamestream media do not even mention the Twitter files, one of the most important Journalistic stories of our lifetime? It should be clear. They were/are all in on it. The lamestream media has been doing the same thing Twitter did, along with Big Tech. Yesterday, Elon Musk tweeted, “The woke mind virus is either defeated, or nothing else matters.” He is right, and we all need to join the fight. As he also tweeted yesterday, “Truth Resonates.” Nothing is guaranteed for this country or life in general. It will take a decade to recover from this era if we recover at all. Freedom is the battle of a lifetime and the most important issue for the future of our children and grandchildren. It is still hard to swallow that all of this is happening right before our eyes. It is like having 50-yard line seats to history. I pray that our country survives it. By the way, do you think Ukraine has gotten its money’s worth for hiring Hunter Biden for $85,000 monthly to serve on Ukraine’s Burisma board? They spent about $1 million on him for a $100 billion return. Of course, Ukraine is not a strategic U.S. interest! The Biden family was bribed, and something needed to replace the Afghanistan money-laundering operation for the politicians and their cronies Should Trump still have been impeached for the phone call with Zelensky asking about the Biden crime family? You cannot make this stuff up. A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Inflation, Red Lines, and Superheroes… Dec 12, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment S&P 500 Index - Naviagtor Two-Hour Swing Chart Good Evening/Early Morning:On a housekeeping note, I will be in the Founders’ Room Monday through Thursday this week to try to get a few licks in before the holidays.Premium Members – check and reset your phone alerts, as they may have been impacted by the Founders’ Room upgrades last week. Also, you must log into the room at least once every two weeks, or the system will have you reset your phone alerts and pin code.As a side note, I put a lot of detailed charts and some new, Pre-Market Considerations and Checklists in the room files, so take a look.We begin a volatile week with the NY Fed Inflation Expectations and a cadre of U.S. Treasury auctions Monday, the CPI report (pre-market) Tuesday, followed by the Fed Rate Announcement on Wednesday.Then we go into Quadruple Witching when weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual futures and options expire.By the way, make sure you switch to the March 2023 Futures Contract.If there were ever a week to take a vacation, this is probably it.Speaking of that, I will take the Christmas week off, but I will still put charts up in the room and drop a line if something important (like Nuclear War) arises.The key price levels we have been following remain the same; closes above 4000 keep the ball rolling higher, and closes below 3900 trigger parachutes.Monday is anticipated to be relatively calm, with an implied move of 0.87% (max move, open/close). Major resistance above remains at 4000-4010 (SPY 410). Support shows at 3960 (SPY 395) – 3950, with 3900 major support.Realistically, we are navigating about a 200-point balance range. Typically, one would project a minimum 200-point price target from a break higher or lower (4300 or 3700, respectively).We are in the zone for the 80-day cycle trough, and the cycle low either gives the price a thrust after a volatile drawdown or perhaps provides enough energy to keep us sideways in the range through year-end. think of it as kind of a strained Santa Clause rally.The 60-year cycle path suggests we have already put in the Mid Four-Year Cycle low, and prices will move sideways before revisiting the October low again as we approach early Spring. A 60-year timespan with a 5% variance is a tough cycle low to call precisely.Higher prices seem hard to swallow, but that is one reason I plan to reveal one of my long-held secrets in the 2023 forecast coming out around Christmas. you simply cannot rule higher prices out, even if they seem to defy gravitySure, I remain more bearish than bullish, but it still bothers me that so many pundits predict economic Armageddon. The market has held its ground remarkably well since October. Recall that the market was supposed to crash then too.The entire bear market from January has been nothing, if not orderly, almost like a slow leak in a car tire. Perhaps it is a “managed” decline of the Everything Bubble – slowly deteriorating like our nation-state.Naturally, I feel this way because we have had considerable profits this year. Perhaps those with losses think differently.But the pain trade is once again the fear now (besides getting nuked). Too many pundits on the bearish side predicting the financial world is ending. Sure, things are unpleasant, but I have heard the sad song before, and the pain never seems to manifest as the crowd expects – unless you are short. Where were these bears at the top?It is too bad that Armageddon doesn’t come more often. There do not seem to be any consequences for the poor decisions of our elites as yet. They need a hard lesson, even though it might take the rest of us down too.For now, we must let the price action guide us, and it will sometimes try to fool us.In the meantime, the Navigator Swing Strategy remains in the cash/short signal from December 1st at 4084.Unless you are a pure gambler, cash is never a bad place to hover when such volatile events are scheduled like this week. There will always be another train leaving the station.Surprisingly, the Fed Funds rate seems to be pricing in a quarter-point fed rate hike. I was expecting another 50 bps, if not 75. The smaller projected hike may explain the market’s resilience.As to the headline, we get the latest on inflation Tuesday with CPI; Putin says he will launch 200 Nukes if another missile enters Russia. Don’t worry; the Orwell Administration told Ukraine to proceed with strikes deep inside Russia, regardless of Putin’s remarks. Even a first grader can tell that the Orwell administration wants to mask their corruption and help the depopulation agenda along with a nuclear war. We will lose.I don’t know about you, but my back and arms are sore from digging out my bunker all weekend. will I still be able to trade? Sure, probably for food and water.Oh, and if Putin decides to peg oil to gold and only accept gold for oil, you can kiss the dollar goodbye. Gold for oil would nearly be as effective as a nuke.Like Weimar, Germany, on the 100-year anniversary, save your grocery basket for the cash you will need to buy a loaf of bread.I hate to be the one that is saying what everyone else is thinking, but at some point, this corrupt and inept administration needs to be “exited,” just as Mr. Musk exited BI SPY James Baker from Twitter. I hope the Orwell clown show is “exited” before it is too late.As a side note, I also listened to Babbel’s language courses as I dug the bunker (grave if not finished in time). I think I like Russian the best. Mandarin is hard. Besides, most Russians look like us and eat normal food. Those native Chinese will eat anything! I am a bit fussy about what I eat!Happy Holidays, then? Sure, we are supposed to live in the moment, and what a moment this has become.A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal President Orwell is Getting “Fact Checked” as the Left Squeals Like Proverbial Pigs Dec 9, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:On the most important order of business today, the markets will react to new inflation data and today is a minor turn day.Look to 3995 and 4012 as resistance and 3970, then 3960 and the WEM at 3930 as support.At this writing (Pre inflation report), we have a 20-point boost from Globex. But that could quickly reverse on bad news.Price is bouncing off the daily mean and taking out yesterday’s high, suggesting a higher pivot reversal and a possible buy signal.Don’t count on it, but carry it forward in your narrative.I have picked up a cold virus, so I am skipping the Trading Room this morning, but we will be in the room every day next week to make up for the software updates and disruptions this week.I will keep the charts up, but a close above the mean and 4000 would negate the 12/1 sell signal and lock in profits on any short from that level.And yes, now that Twitter has become “fair,” President Orwell’s claim Yesterday that his administration reduced unemployment by 90% generated a “context” comment by Twitter, explaining the Covid overlay to the Bogus Claim.And, hypocrites that the Marxists are, they are squealing loudly like pigs as they get a dose of their own medicine.However, it does not change the fact that YouTube, LinkedIn, and others are infiltrated like the “old” Twitter and continuing on with their Marxist policies.But even a small victory feels good, and Arizona Democrat Senator Kristen Cinema’s decision to leave the Democrat Party and become an independent is also encouraging.As far as I am concerned, the sooner the Democrat and Republican parties disintegrate, the better for our country. We should all be independents. Wouldn’t that drive the elites crazy?A.F. Thornton