Archives February 2022

The Founders Group has taken a swing buy, long call spread at S&P 500 Futures 4315.25. We are targeting 25% for the position. More on this signal later tonight.

Issue Number 0973 – 02/28/2022

The Navigator Oracle™ is BluPrint Quantitative Strategies’ signature publication. The weekly forecast is available Monday mornings free and can be sent directly to your email if you register here. Subscribers receive the Oracle on Sunday morning, along with essential updates during the week and live access to swing trading signals initiated by the BluPrint Founders Group.

Introduction

Whether or not a long-term bear market is underway, the 2/24 retest of January’s low was successful, and the low should be secure. By most measures, the retest has all the hallmarks of a critical swing low. The secure low does not tell us how far the market will rally – but even a bear market rally can be significant, especially as traders panic to cover short positions.

Large-cap growth stocks may struggle some more as the broad market begins to either base in a trading range or move out of this corrective phase to new highs. But global tensions respecting Ukraine and Taiwan are significant and unpredictable wildcards to even the most prescient forecast.

In this issue, we will revisit our longer-term thesis, review the status of the Navigator Algorithm, and travel through our checklist of relevant technical indicators.

Navigator™ Algorithm – Current System Status

On Friday morning, the Navigator Algorithm flipped to a preliminary swing buy signal at 4192.25. The call followed and confirmed a lower time-frame buy signal for day traders on Thursday morning’s hourly chart at 4192.25.

Day traders close out their positions at the end of each day, mitigating the risk of adverse overnight developments. But swing traders would have been required to hold any acquired positions over an entire weekend.

With the Russia – Ukraine conflict in full gear, we decided to wait until Monday to issue the buy signal (if we do so at all). Not even an algorithm can escape the volatility and news related to the current conflict. However, the market have reacted more favorably than expected as the negative news keeps flowing from the Eurasian theatre.

Looking at the daily dashboard on the first chart above, The Navigator Algorithm™ set the first stop level at 4371 and the second at 4127. These are dynamic levels that change with price. With trailing deltas running at 156.8, the lower stop gives the price action more wiggle room.

A lot of energy has already been released, so fractal gamma (energy) is neutral after the last two daily bars. We will revisit stops if we take the buy signal.

The Founders Group would be considering a 25% long call spread for its swing position on the buy signal. The spread reduces risk and reduces vega (the risk of a volatility crush). If we proceed with the trade today, we will carefully evaluate market conditions if 15-minute candles start closing below the stop to exit.

As I often remind subscribers, the algorithm gives us the buy or sell signal, but it does not tell us how far the market will move after the signal. We set the targets with Fibonacci math and other objective measures, depending on context.

Our first target would be 4400, then 4435, then 4470, and finally 4585. The Founders Group would evaluate market conditions for taking all or partial profits at each target. We would look to the hourly Navigator Algorithm to guide us short term.

Thursday and Friday were the easy moves. The index will encounter significant resistance above Friday’s close.

The trend state is still strongly bearish at 34.3. We remain in a short-term downtrend and kill zone. The market did manage to close above the 5-EMA Friday, which is positive. But we may be working with a bear market rally, rather than continuation of the bull trend. Only time will tell. We discuss whether or not the Thursday 2/24/2022 intraday low is secure below.

Weekly Stock Market Forecast

Last week’s theme was “sell the rumor buy the news.” The chart immediately below was the prescient chart of the week, presented in an alert on the eve of Russia Invading Ukraine last Wednesday evening:

This week’s theme is “follow the leader.” We discuss our confidence level in last week’s swing low, the extraordinary influence of the options market, follow-through, and small company leadership developing in the Russell 2000 Index (IWM). We will finish up with our weekly checklist.

Press Here to Skip Down to Current Conditions

Background and Context

Our current thesis is that the U.S. stock market (we use the S&P 500 cash index as our proxy) has started a generational correction that will end at its long-term mean. The mean is roughly the halfpoint in its 100-year channel – currently 2500. The level is in the same neighborhood as the 2018 lows, but slightly above the Covid-19 crash low at 2100. Of course, the mean rises over time, so time and price are both elements of the downside target.

The S&P 500 cash index peaked at 4818 on January 4, 2022, also the intersection of a multi-timeframe channel top and three standard deviations above its long-term mean. Our thesis would be negated if the index found acceptance at new all-time highs.

This backdrop distinguishes the road ahead from recent bull market experiences, corrections, and tactics. The stock market has tagged the 100-year top channel line only three times: 1929, 2000, and the recent January peak. Recency bias can be fatal as a new bear market unfolds. 

If the past is prologue, this will not be a buy-and-hold market. Rallies and declines will occur swiftly, and both traders and investors must apply appropriate tactics to produce consistent profits and avoid losses.

From a technical perspective, tagging the 100-year channel top is a “three-sigma” event, driven by unusually accommodative Fed policy leading to excess speculation. The last two touches culminated in bear markets with declines exceeding 50%. BluPrint’s working thesis calls for similar corrective processes in the coming weeks and months. 

From a fundamental perspective, traditional valuation models also support mean regression. Using the S&P 500 index Price/Earnings as a measure, the ratio is 76% above its historic average. Readers can track multiple market valuation measures using these additional resources.

Potential Bear Market catalysts include high inflation, a related reversal in accommodative Fed policies, the risk of Fed policy errors (inducing a recession), and rising global tensions, including the Russia – Ukraine conflict. The entire world is experiencing secular upheaval, challenging the existing international order. The disruptions are characteristic of “Fourth Turnings, ” which we have previously discussed on these pages.

Projected Path and Targets

The stock market can travel along several different paths to correct its excesses. It can crash, zig-zag, move sideways, or combine all three. Crashes are low probability events – more often associated with unknown and unexpected circumstances.

The market is more likely to establish one or more trading ranges as it works its way to the mean. The mean can rise while the market moves sideways until the mean and price meet. The process can take a long time, even years. 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average chart above highlights the various corrective paths the index has taken over the past 100 years in gray. Of particular interest is the Dow Jones Industrial Average behavior from 1966 to 1984. That segment of the long-term chart is magnified below and documents the index’s regressive price behavior in the last U.S. inflationary spiral:

Current Conditions

The past week was extraordinary. Thursday and Friday saw parabolic rallies off the 2/24 swing low. The quick and parabolic price action generated a Navigator Algorithm swing buy signal. however the signal is on hold for the weekend until we can evaluate conditions on Monday. We need to look at the weight of the evidence and consider recent global tensions before we jump in with both feet.

Is Thursday’s Swing Low Secure?

The simple technical answer would be yes – were it not for very serious and unpredictable global events. Let’s review our usual MGI checklist and then we will draw some conclusions.

✓ Trend

The short-term trend remains bearish. While the market broke up through and closed above a secondary downtrend line on Friday, the futures gapped down tonight (Sunday), returning prices below the line and break. Price also remains below the primary downtrend line from the January market peak. How the market opens Monday morning (also the last trading day of February) will tell us more about the runway ahead of us.

The longer-term trend is still bullish. Price closed above the primary uptrend line and inside the ‘best fit” price channel tracing back to the March 2020 Covid Crash.

From a trend perspective, the price action supports Thursday’s low as secure. However, the news-driven sell-off in Globex tonight has the Covid rally uptrend hanging by a thread.

✓ Chart Patterns

The market reversed from an “h” pattern and an even more rare “piercing pattern“, both of which are bullish outcomes. According to the Pattern Website, the piercing pattern has a 65% follow-through rate, which is among the most reliable market reversal patterns. Friday’s candle also bullishly  “swept” up and through four daily bear candles.

The bullish chart pattern resolutions support the 2/24 Thursday low as secure.

✓ Moving Averages

The moving averages slope down and remain stacked negatively, which is bearish. The price closed above the 5-EMA Friday, which is a step in the right direction. The market must hold the 5-day line this week to stay bullish.

The bearish position of the key daily chart moving averages does not support the 2/24 Thursday low as secure. Additionally, the price remains below the 21-week average (mean) which continues to be resistant to any advance.

✓ Sentiment

Sentiment supports the 2/24 low as secure. There are many measures I could quote to confirm this, but one of the best remains the CNN Fear/Greed Index:

Many other measures of fear exceed their March 2020 Covid Crash peaks. When fear is this high, most sellers have exited the market, leaving buyers with a lot of cash on the sidelines. Sentiment supports the 2/24 low as secure.

✓ Breadth

The correction at hand started almost a year ago in the broad market, using measures such as the Russell 2000, or NYSE index. The large-cap stocks, many of which are represented in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Indexes, are the last to correct and may still be correcting.

It is not surprising then, that the broad market would be bottoming ahead of the generals. We see that reflected in the positive breadth divergences at the 2/24 low.

The NYSE has clear, positive breadth divergences at the 2/24 low. There were fewer net new lows than January, and the number of stocks below their 50 and 200-day lines contracted between the January and 2/24 low.

As mentioned, the S&P 500 index did not enjoy the same positive divergences in members above the 50 and 200-day lines. We will need to keep a close eye on these differences, but for now, it evidences to me that the generals are still basing and correcting while the soldiers are beginning to advance.

✓ Volume

The positive volume divergence is another confirmation of the February 24th retest low as secure. Spike volume is often associated with intermediate lows, and the January low was no exception. On the piercing low retest, volume was spiking but significantly lower than the spike volume on the January low. The behavior is but another positive divergence solidifying a successful retest.

Friday’s market and volume profile shows both the point of control and value area gapping significantly higher. This is characteristic of an important auction low.

The profiles support the 2/24 low as secure.

✓ Momentum

We could provide many examples but will focus on the RSI indicator. The RSI came in higher as the market put in a lower low on 2/24. This is a positive strength/momentum divergence:

Conclusions

Whether or not a long-term bear market is underway, the 2/24 retest of January’s low was successful and, by most measures, has all the hallmarks of an important swing low. Even so, we don’t know how far the market will rally from here.

The caveats are that the large-cap growth stocks may struggle some more as the broad market begins to either base or move out of this first corrective phase. Also, global tensions respecting Ukraine and Taiwan are significant and unpredictable wildcards to even the most prescient forecast.

Finally, there is evidence that we are starting something more significant than a bull market correction. A generational bear market could be unfolding. If so, the next decline in the sequence typically exceeds any previous bull market correction. There are plenty of catalysts at hand to eventually drive the market below the 2/24 low.

A.F. Thornton

Navigator Algorithm Status: 100% Cash and Hunting

Ben Franklin coined “Buy on the Canons and Sell on the Trumpets” over 100 years ago. The anecdotal evidence supports him even in modern times:

But this morning, we encounter a volatile and dangerous situation on top of an already highly complicated macro backdrop. Unless this resolves quickly, sanctions and skyrocketing energy prices likely will accelerate the arrival of a U.S. recession.

On the Hunt for a Swing Low

This morning, we are on the hunt for a tradable low, as we have been for the past few sessions. Preferably, that low sits around 4050, give or take. The target recognizes the considerable options open interest and Gamma around 4000 on the S&P 500. The forming S&P 500 Index channel also supports the target (see Navigator Chart above and SPX chart below). This invasion severely alters the global order in place since World War II. Did I not warn you about Fourth Turnings?

It paid to take a long trade on the above-referenced invasions, but this invasion is somewhat distinguishable. This time we have a super nuclear power attacking a country because it can – and for no other ostensibly legitimate reason. Russia is capitalizing on Western weakness, much like Hitler did with Great Britain in World War II.

On the one hand, the backdrop could ease pressures on the Fed to tighten monetary policy. But I honestly cannot quantify whether the current situation exacerbates or ameliorates inflation pressures. My instinct is that inflation will worsen short-term (e.g., $100 plus per barrel oil prices) and decline as a recession unfolds.

Ironically this is the type of environment where you’d expect Fed intervention not tightening. Because the Fed didn’t pull back on monetary policy when it could, it has little ammunition left.

Many individual stocks have already crashed as the bubble bursts. Our job is to find opportunities in the carnage.

We have terrific returns year-to-date in both the leveraged and non-leveraged accounts. It would be easy to blow it in this kind of volatility. But I am considering deploying at least some cash today so stay alert.

There were bullish divergences in the S&P 500 index, as far as breadth, momentum, and strength at yesterday’s close. We will see how it looks this morning. I am surprised the overnight action isn’t worse.

The bottom line is that we should favor longs over shorts. Buying puts as Putin invades Ukraine is like asking for a quick insurance policy on your house when the house is already burning.

As mentioned above, let’s also watch the trend channels to confirm a long entry. Here is the S&P 500 cash index:

The NASDAQ 100 is even better formed:

Weakness begets weakness. We can trace the current situation to our disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. China invading Taiwan in the coming months will be traced to our inability to discourage this invasion.

One distinction is that China cannot afford to lose us economically, so it is a different animal. Comparatively, Russia is an economic blip on the radar screen. But China has bought off most of our elites (traitors) anyway, so China will likely take Taiwan with a whimper. By the way, I wonder if Ukraine now has buyer’s remorse with the Biden family payoffs? Serves them right,

I hate to state the obvious, but to quote Steve Bannon at War Room, “elections have consequences, and stolen elections have major consequences.” The evidence continues to mount that the Biden regime stole the election through multiple means, the latest being a comprehensive and illegal national ballot harvesting scheme. We are now bearing the consequences of an unqualified, incompetent, and cognitively impaired President. We would be far better off if an adult were running our government rather than a cognitively impaired septuagenarian.

Regardless of my opinions, this meltdown can become systemic, i.e., forced liquidations due to hedge funds blowing up, etc. Stops are critical in this environment. There are always one or two funds that hit the pavement in these circumstances. I would proceed cautiously in the circumstances.

Day Traders

Today may not be the best day to trade, as you could get crushed in the volatility. If you must trade, keep your positions smaller rather than larger and widen your stops to handle the volatility. Gamma is extremely negative across all indices / ETFs, and the VIX is near 37. The market is pricing in a 2.32% daily move. Overhead resistance is light at 4200 and more substantial at 4300. Support is at 4064 and 4000.

The markets should bounce on a test of the 4000 – 4050 area due to the forming channel. Be mindful that my ultimate targets remain 3600 and then 2400 as outlined in my Weekly Forecast. I don’t mean to suggest we achieve the latter targets this week. I expect it to take a while. However, 3600 is a slight possibility in a complete meltdown/crash or systemic dislocation.

Assuming that the 4050ish bounce scenario unfolds, there won’t be a lot of resistance back to 4300. But any rally will be short-lived without a sustainable reduction of put positions. It is doubtful that will happen before the March 16th-18th Fed meeting.

I am considering long positions at the target on a confirmed price pivot to hold up to and then cover at the Daily 5-EMA.

We will be gapping down at the open, so Gap Rules are in play. Overnight inventory is 100% net short. Be mindful of the size of this gap down per the rules.

Remember that gap fills or lack thereof are the first clues to strength or weakness. There is potential for early trade to work the gap fade move given the context.

Consider buying the high of the first one-minute bar or buy a cross back up through the open if there is an opening drive lower that reverses. Odds are increased if the overnight low is not taken out first. Monitor for continuation with an ultimate target of overnight halfback at 4165 or so.

Any fade that is only partial or fails quickly may be a short signal on a cross back through the open. This sort of “go with” trade can be relatively difficult to pull off as per gap rule #4. Use caution and monitor very closely for continuation with the understanding that when markets are piling on (100% o/n inventory true gap on top of weak close), reversals can be unpredictable and swift.

The best scenario would be a gap fill and green candle on the day. One can wish?

A.F Thornton

A liquidity cascade and negative feedback loop can take the market significantly lower. I will do my best to explain it. It involves the influence of the options market, which has grown so large in the past few years that we have to consider it in our algorithms.

I discuss and identify the Weekly Expected Moves week to week respecting weekly options. And you see how influential they are most of the time. But options have an even more significant impact when considering Gamma and Delta hedging. Dealers on the other side of puts and calls have to hedge. At certain levels of Gamma and Delta, they have to hedge a lot and frequently.

When volatility is this high, it is nearly impossible for dealers to keep up. Accordingly, they step away from the market, and liquidity evaporates, making the problem worse.

We had the positive benefit of Gamma in the bull market phase. We would see tight, persistent rallies. These were positive Gamma squeezes. The more traders bought calls, the more the dealers had to hedge by buying the underlying stock or index or futures. The hedging created a positive feedback loop.

Now we are seeing the opposite. The more investors buy puts; the more dealers have to sell the underlying stock or index or sell futures. This hedging creates a negative Gamma squeeze with tight sell patterns.

ETFs and indexing, in general, are related problems. It does not matter how good your stock is; it suffers when investors dump ETFs and indexes. Options leverage only exaggerates the problem.

Most of the Gamma is sitting at 4000 on the S&P 500 index. As the market approaches that or other significant Gamma levels, dealers may have to unwind their positions as investors cover their puts, and the Gamma squeeze reverses to positive.

I will mention something one of my mentors once told me. The best investments sometimes make you sick to your stomach because the fear is high. We call it the puke point. As Russia makes its full-blown Ukraine invasion and given most of the other Fed risks are known, we may deploy some capital into the capitulation.

Fasten your seatbelts, and let’s see how it goes. It is going to be a long night.

A.F. Thornton

We have a full retest of the January low underway. Not only is the S&P 500 going to close on its low. It will close on or near its critical retest level just above 4200 – leaving us hanging. The NASDAQ 100 will close below its January low. One could suggest that where the NASDAQ 100 goes, the S&P 500 will follow.

The S&P 500 has been one-time-framing lower for five sessions in a row. The slow, consistent, and somewhat demolishing behavior reminds me of 2000 and 2007, but more on that later. I have watched the order book dry up several times today, meaning there is little or no liquidity, at least as it relates to the order book.

The U.S. Intelligence community has informed Ukraine that a full-scale invasion will be underway in 24 to 48 hours. A full-scale invasion could precipitate a full-on market crash into the 3600 level.

I will expand on all this tonight with a short video and discussion. The WEM low at 4229 did provide some brief support.

I am beyond thankful that our strategies are in cash. The Navigator Algorithm is an extraordinary tool.

A.F. Thornton