Founder's Trading Journal Afternoon Notes – 3/25/2022 Mar 25, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment I want to keep it short tonight, as I have to write the weekly letter tomorrow with more detail.We had a good day and some more nice profits. But we are back to 100% cash for the weekend.We are approaching a critical inflection point, especially with bonds. If bonds break their long-term downtrend, they would eventually take down the stock market.There are some nuances in the options market that brought us this rally, similar to how the options market contributed to the January rally. But if we run out of fuel here, there is nothing to catch us below as the hedge wall expired on March 15th.I like to stick with the S&P 500 for trading but will dabble in the QQQ and other sector funds from time to time.I wanted to take profits on our latest positions at the expected move highs today, as mentioned this morning.I did so early in the day, as you can see below: Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) - Five-Minute Chart with Latest Trade Round Trip S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY) - Five-Minute Chart with Latest Trade Round Trip You do not want to miss this weekend’s update to the Navigator Oracle™. The issue promises to be one of our most important market discussions in many years.Suffice it to say, things are not ok, and it will take many years to pull ourselves out of the mess our corrupt elites have delivered to us.The implications for stocks, bonds, and commodities have never been more profound.Until then,A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 3/25/2022 Mar 25, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning: Big tech may no longer be the cat’s meow as it competes with “food” and “gas” as the most profitable future investments. Maybe corn isn’t the sexiest investment, but the price of corn and wheat will astound all of us in six months. Volatility continues to contract as the Vix futures curve normalizes and risk appetite grows again. We were able to take some call positions yesterday without fear of a volatility crush. Resistance at 4500 should now be solid support. The daily expected move comes in around 30 points or so above and below the open. Resistance should come in around 4535-4540, also the Weekly Expected Move high. After the first resistance, we have another slight speed bump at 4562. and then it is on to the February 2nd highs at 4580. I can’t see much farther than 4580 at the moment, nor do I expect gains much beyond the WEM today. I am inclined to take profits at the WEM highs on both the QQQ and SPY positions (about 4530-4540 on the S&P 500 index). At the very least, we may take leveraged SPY and QQQ calls back to cash ETF positions. I will enjoy my weekend better not worrying about some geopolitical event. Let’s see how it goes. I won’t be trading today but will monitor while sipping Pina Coladas on the beach. Limit one before the market closes… Other than high gas prices, looming food shortages, rising interest rates, and the threat of nuclear World War III, try to relax and enjoy your weekend. I will cover all the issues still on the table and more in the Navigator Oracle Weekly Letter™ coming out for subscribers on Sunday. and available to the public on Monday. Morning charts are up for Navigator Day Traders™. A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Word of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn
Founder's Trading Journal Afternoon Notes – 3/24/2022 Mar 24, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment This is a 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 futures showing today's key support and resistance. Good Afternoon:The Federalist’s Sean Davis aptly summarizes where things stand today:“We’re about to face massive energy and food shortages, and Biden’s solution is to ban drilling and put expensive and inefficient solar panels and windmills on what’s left of American farmland that hasn’t been bought up by China, Bill Gates or BlackRock,” he wrote on Twitter.Add housing to the list, as BlackRock is buying that up too. Remember the Great Reset promotional video – “you will own nothing and be happy.” They didn’t tell us that BlackRock would own everything instead. I am not happy.And then BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink told shareholders in a letter today, “the Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades,” Daaaaa! “A global digital payment system, thoughtfully designed, can enhance the settlement of international transactions while reducing the risk of money laundering and corruption.”Should we laugh or cry? First, they are coming for our money and will be tracking EVERYTHING. Bitcoin, is this your moment? Oh, and welcome to the Surveillance State.But the good news about globalization is that the interdependence between and among countries probably led to fewer conflicts and wars. I would not be isolating Russia after 20 years of American culture becoming part of their land. The move is a huge step backward. Sanctions have never worked anyway.As Bob Gates deftly observed, Biden has been on the wrong side of every foreign policy issue in the last 40-years. No point in breaking such a great record now.As one example, Mcdonald’s is closing 850 stores in Russia. The average lifespan of a Russian has now increased by seven years. Just kidding, but isolating Russia or any country is not the best solution. But who would expect the wokesters to be smart?Now that all of the important nations are isolated from each other, could we close our Southern Border, please?Is this really a good time to reinvigorate Iran with another bad nuke deal? Oh, sorry, that is another part of the population control agenda. My bad.Also, none of us want that globalist, commie “Great Reset” either. We want our jobs back too. We want our Country back. If we have to experience inflation, could we do so benefitting our own country with jobs? I am tired of sacrificing for the wokesters and their grand, corrupt, boondoggles.Ironically, we are getting a New World Order, but not the one Davos wanted. This world order will be divisible by at least three global regions.The Great Reset crowd and their woke nonsense led to Russia invading Ukraine in the first place. I would not want George Soros and the Davos wack-jobs living or working next door to me either – especially with Biolabs.A recent survey of 100 Russians found that they all knew the definition of a “woman,” unlike Supreme Court Nominee Ketjani Brown Jackson.The same 100 Russians had absolutely no doubt about what should happen to purveyors or producers of child porn either.President Putin would prefer Russia stay “woke” in those ways. President Xi likes the same plan for China.Please make no mistake, considerable animosity toward Russia and China emanates from the Davos snowflakes who see both countries as significant obstacles to their Great Reset, utopian, collectivist dream.In the Great Reset utopia – you slave – they master. No wonder they are so excited.Part of the Great Reset is population control. The Russian conflict grants the World Economic Forum Davos a two-for-one. If we have a nuclear war, Russia is no longer an obstacle and it helps with population control.If we wipe out China and Russia, even though only three or four of us might be left alive, the wokesters hope we can join the woke cause with no opposition.Anyway, I am still thinking of identifying as a minority woman to get an SBA loan. Be prepared, I am one ugly girl!Today, the market stayed inside our sandbox, closing just slightly above our second resistance at 4510.4500 is still the most significant strike on the options chart – so it is a magnet of sorts through April expiration (but with a sizable JP Morgan position expiring on March 31st).The market tried to hold the 200-day line and the Weekly Mean on today’s lows. So it was a struggle for the first few hours. But the market held the line for the second time and regained most of what it lost yesterday.Swing traders took positions today on the pass back up and through S&P 500 (SPY) at 447. I am still targeting the February 2nd highs near 458 (370 on the QQQ), but the WEM high sits at 454 and may stunt our growth before tomorrow’s weekly expiration. Leveraged accounts used April monthly SPY and QQQ at the money calls. Non-leveraged accounts used the SPY and QQQ ETFs at 45% each.Again, we will be managing these positions tightly as the market continues to climb the wall of worry or at least until we have some adults running the country again.A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Word of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 3/24/2022 Mar 24, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment S&P 500 Index Futures - Navigator Algorithm System Status Good Morning:It wasn’t a bad morning until I read that the Bidenista sanctions are out to mess with my morning coffee. “Mega Emergency” Unfolds For World’s Top Coffee Growers As Fertilizer Costs Spike.Did you know that coffee changed the world? See “Coffee and the Enlightenment.“I rarely get out from behind my computers, so gas prices at $6 a gallon haven’t bothered me much. But messing with my coffee forces me to rely on our algorithms almost exclusively. I often get up at 2:00 am, for heaven’s sake!The housing market announced yesterday that it might be leaving the party early with sales down and mortgage rates up. Time to sell, wait to buy?The S&P 500 tagged my 5-day line entry point overnight. Unfortunately, I was asleep, and I don’t do my best trading when I am unconscious, so I missed the long entry. I am still looking for one more loop higher.As previously noted, the next few days will have little to do with fundamentals. Month and quarter-end are approaching. Month ends tend to have markups, and quarter ends have rebalancing. This quarter comes with the added twist: bonds got smashed this quarter. Now stocks have recovered somewhat.Before stocks recovered, I thought the balanced funds would be adding to stocks. Now it is the reverse.Many funds have relative weighting mandates between bonds and stocks – these funds must add to their bond balances.How does this rebalance affect quarter-end?In this quarter, we saw massive growth takedowns, ramps in inflation, rate hike expectations, a war in Europe with enormous implications for commodities, particularly energy, and sanctions that could starve millions in the weeks ahead. The net result: the S&P 500 index is down a mere 6% from all-time highs and back to 187% of GDP.And that tremendous monetary tightening? China has put a floor under its stock market and is intervening. The Fed’s balance sheet just made a new all-time high last week. And the European Central Bank keeps printing every week with no signs of stopping: This is a chart of the Fed Balance Sheet still making new highs at 3-23-2022. So other than one measly .25 bp rate hike, nothing’s happened on the monetary tightening front other than the market itself tightening financial conditions.Real negative rates still rule the world and the next Fed meeting is not until May.So they’re actually doing absolutely nothing on the inflation front other than giving hawkish speeches.Perhaps, then, the stock market’s temporary strength can be explained by a Fed that is all talk and no action. It is an election year, after all, and the current regime can ill afford any more damage to their polls in the form of higher interest rates.We will know more about the future when all eyes turn to earnings in April. We will watch for pre-announcements as well. Forward guidance is everything now. 10% wholesale inflation for two months in a row means either a hit to earnings, higher prices for consumers, or both.Futures are up slightly to 4477 after a quiet overnight session. Our volatility estimates (0.86% from open) and key trading levels remain in line with yesterday. Resistance is at 4500-4510. Support lies at 4473, and then 4450.My best judgment, for now, is that the bear is taking a nap, but can wake up at any moment. We will take it a day at a time until then.A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Afternoon Notes – 3/23/2022 Mar 23, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment S&P 500 Cash Index (SPY) NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Good Afternoon: We are here to make a profit, which could not have been more apparent to me this morning when the SPY and QQQ gapped down (not a true gap) below our stops for the Navigator Swing Trader™ accounts. I know it will be impossible to maintain this record, but we have not had a single losing round trip in the strategy so far this year. But if I pull the trigger too soon sometimes, it is because I am rarely rewarded for holding overnight in this kind of market. Last night was no exception. Any gap is a chance to get an instant sentiment reading on the market. If the gap lower struggles to fill, you likely have a challenging day ahead for long positions. Capital preservation is key in this environment. Gap Rules are still helpful even in cases where there is no True Gap. So we road the first rally attempt higher after the Gap down. I found the rally attempt weak, more so on the SPY than the QQQ, so we sold at the first reversal pivot (see above). The market respected our support and resistance lines announced this morning which made the job easier. There was definitely a struggle to hold some of the key moving averages exceeded yesterday. The 200-day line is key to the SPY’s struggle as the 50-day line is to the QQQ. You have to convert the SPX support and resistance numbers announced in the morning notes to the SPY and QQQ. We got out at 447.25 on the SPY and 356 on the QQQ. We broke even on the SPY and picked up 5.5 points on the QQQs. We are now back to cash and will monitor the situation from here. The market remains incredibly challenging. I would liken it to playing dominos. First, we have the dislocation in commodities. Many of those markets (and several large dealers) are broken. It creates a “doom loop” of sorts that feeds on itself. The dislocation in commodity markets is far from over and will continue to spill into other markets. Remember that commodity markets deal with real farmers and food. Food prices could shock consumers over the next year, and, sadly, many people will suffer and starve. The next domino to fall was the bond market, and it is getting worse. We are on the verge of breaking the 50-year downtrend in interest rates – at least on the 10-year Treasury, arguably the most critical note and rate. Most loans and mortgages price from the 10-year benchmark rate. Recall that we already broke the long-term downtrend in commodities. Will interest rates follow? The subsequent two dominos to fall will be currencies and the stock market. The dollar may actually rally at first as U.S. rates head higher versus Europe. Usually, the rising rates and rising dollar will cause the stock market to fall further. New stock market lows are likely to follow. In more favorable circumstances in 2018, rising rates caused the $8 trillion corporate bond market to blow up, and stocks crashed 20% in a matter of weeks. The stock market could still be on borrowed time. The latest narrative is that money will flow into stocks from bonds as a supposed inflation hedge. I don’t buy it long term – but whatever works for now. Here is one positive today – the 20-year treasury auction went well with almost record demand. That helps keep the yield curve flat, which is better than inverted. Another thought I had today is that we have these wars and crises every 80-years or so because all the people who had the knowledge and experience from the last one (Depression and World War II) have passed. We could use their advice now on how to avoid this catastrophe. I am still obsessing on the crazy survey I mentioned yesterday that 37% are in favor of Nuclear War with Russia. The survey is giving me nightmares. The only people who would favor a nuclear war are those who have never experienced one = which is nearly everyone alive. I think the market will hang by its fingernails until the end of the calendar quarter. We are likely to get one more round trip out of it on the long side. Stay tuned, A.F. Thornton
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 3/23/2022 Mar 23, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:It is good to laugh once in a while. I do get in a lot of trouble at home sometimes. “Can’t you put that phone away?” There are golf widows and trader widows. I am in the latter category.Key A.M. Trade Levels and Charts are up for subscribers.Traders piled into options at 4500 yesterday, which should now be considered a very important level.Since Globex has pulled back to 4488 at this writing, let’s peg 4500 to 4510 as resistance today. 4476 and 4449 will provide support.One oddity is that the largest Gamma strike and Call Wall is at 4500, but the Put Wall is above that at 4510. That is because of a large JP Morgan collar trade.For now, I would focus on normal trading and view the options market as not providing a lot of influence here.UK inflation came out at 6.2% for consumers and 10.1% at the producer level. Maybe the numbers soured the overnight crowd.Fed Chairman Powell and Fed Gov’s Baily, Daly, and (hawk of all hawks) Bullard speak today. How about a break, gentlemen? Don’t you have anything to do back at the office?We will get some news on the housing market and mortgages today – vital economic indicators.How about a “Diesel Squeeze” – says the biggest independent oil trader speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland on Tuesday. Corporate leaders warn that global markets face a squeeze on diesel, with Europe most at risk of a “systemic” shortage leading to fuel rationing.First, the coronavirus brought on supply-chain disruption, then the war in Ukraine further rocked commodity markets. The next bout of inflation via raw material prices comes from resource nationalism. Nations are rethinking their approach to national stockpiling.Paul Pelosi, husband to Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, exercised options securing between $1 million and $5 million worth of Tesla stock on March 17th, days after his wife Nancy, the House Speaker, applauded her passing the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act on March 14th.After the original Tesla purchase, Nancy Pelosi spearheaded the legislation to give tens of billions of dollars to build electric charging stations across the country.Nancy announced the passage of the bill on Monday, March 14th. Paul sold on Thursday, March 17th. Once again, Nancy’s stock picks rival even the best hedge funds.Supreme Court nominee Judge Jackson defended her light sentences for child porn offenders yesterday, lamenting that sexual offenders are “so ostracised by society.”Exactly Judge. The rest of us out here don’t like people who like child porn, child abuse, and child rape.It makes me wonder if Q’Non’s conspiracy claims about the elite and child sacrifice are valid. All the other conspiracies are turning out to be true. You cannot make this stuff up!I am having lunch with JFK, Jr. tomorrow. I will be asking him about all of this (you have to know about Q’Non to get the lunch joke – they think JFK Jr. is still alive and sending Q’Non members coded messages) US 10-Year Rate I want to get into the 10-year rate soon, as it is completing our head and shoulders measured move into the top of its multi-decade downtrend channel – another moment of truth.But consider this – why is the rate rising so fast? Is it possible that sovereign funds around the world are selling their treasuries now that the US is weaponizing the dollar?What if, instead, long rates do not stop rising as the U.S. economy slows? What if sovereign selling pressure in the bond market continues and increases in the months ahead?Longer treasury rates are getting very close to a breakout point. What kind of accelerated selling might materialize if the trend is decisively broken?As the latest existing home sales report cautioned, with NAR chief economist Larry Yun warning that “housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases.” I am still targeting the Feb highs for our QQQ and SPY swing positions, but stops are set too. The Feb highs are a little above the golden zone for a Fibonacci retracement.We will let the market decide for us.A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Word of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn
Founder's Trading Journal Afternoon Notes – 3/23/2022 Mar 22, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Me Buying One Last Dip This Morning This is a Meme chart of an investor at the counter buying one more dip. Good Afternoon:My first question this afternoon – is Joe Biden reading these pages???“You know, we are, I believe, we are at an inflection point in the world economy. Not just the world economy, the world. It occurs every three or four generations. and now’s the time when things are shifting. There’s going to be a new world order out there. And we’ve got to lead it. We’ve got to unite the rest of the free world into it.” Joe Biden 3/22/2022.But Joe, how will that happen when you sanction the entire world through your ill-advised, gigantic cancellation of Russia? Canceling Russia isn’t like canceling Joe Rogan. You and your cancel culture minions might be way ahead of yourselves.Note to self Joe, cancel Putin from YouTube and Twitter too.Also, please read up on the Fourth Turning and why it happens. You are the cause, not the cure. Need I mention that spoiled brat of yours – Hunter?Joe, you are driving the Russian people right into Putin’s arms, not to mention China and many other countries. They won’t forget you or us, Joe – and they won’t hold fond memories. Name a country or leader where U.S. sanctions have achieved the intended aims?Oh, and Joe, that Democracy guy over there – Zalensky? He just shut down all of his competing political parties and all unfriendly television stations and media. It is one-party rule in Ukraine now. Marshall law and all that – kind of like Covid emergency powers? Is that Democracy, Joe? I guess it must be because you and your Great Reset buddies are trying to do the same thing here.Speaking of Joe Rogan, here is what he said today: “They were talking about the massive corruption of Ukraine, and how horrible it was over there. And now, all of a sudden, they’re looking at it like they’re heroes.”It reminds me of what former Defense Secretary Bob Gates said about Biden; he’s “been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”OK then, if Joe is reading my notes, I will try to be kinder to him after this…But Joe – we don’t want the damn new world order you just learned about led by that Klaus Barbie character – I mean Klaus Schwab, the Great Reset guru – OK?Besides wanting to take all our stuff, Klaus looks like a Nazi or the bad guy in a James Bond Movie. You can’t make this up.And he has the Schulz (from Hogan’s Heroes) accent going; “I know nothing, nothing!” This is an image of Klaus Scwab - World Economic Forum Leader and Author of the Great Reset Goldfinger and Klaus Schwab - Separated at Birth How about this Klaus, you give me all your stuff then you won’t own anything. Then you will be happy!But alas, I digress.The US yield curve continues to say the Fed is making a policy error: inversions are deepening, and more rate cuts are being priced in further down the line.Stocks are generally holding up on the view that the Fed won’t or can’t raise rates as promised. My best wishes they are right.If the world order is being restructured, we are talking about sanctions, tariffs, price controls, rationing, barter, countertrade, and offsetting.Won’t capital controls be part of that hypothetical package if that is what is required to maintain leadership of the free world?Freedom isn’t free, and freedom isn’t free money.What a fun mess is metastasizing out in la-la land.Oh, and I forgot to tell you, he is back! Fearless Fauci sunning by his pool. Yep, I have $10 mil in the bank suckers! Are Fauci and Klaus cousins? I can’t seem to verify it.Fauci says he has a new variant.Does that mean that the Russia/Ukraine conflict is about to end? They don’t have a new “emergency” in place yet? Covid redux ahead?Note to self, Joe, the election cheating bill failed in Congress, so you need something to get rid of that pesky election coming up in November.Anyway, Navigator Swing Trader subscribers are back in the market this morning at 90% invested – cash only – with 1/2 SPY at 447.25 and 1/2 QQQ at 351.50. We are keeping stops tight.The Navigator Algorithm™ has been in a buy signal since 3/15. But I took profits on our first SPY positions a bit early, as they went up so fast. In 20/20 hindsight, I should have kept them. The algorithms are more intelligent than my plain brain.Today, I was motivated by the SPY clearing the 200-day line, Weekly Mean, and the QQQ clearing its 50-day line. Stops are tight, and we will continue to move them up with the price. We already have a profit locked in.Learn about the Navigator Swing Trader™ subscription here. You could have paid for it with your gains today.I thought we were chasing price after the morning entry – but it turned out ok so far. As per Sunday’s Navigator Oracle weekly update, we target the February 2nd high. This is an update chart of the QQQ at the 3/22 close with new buy entry marked. This is a chart of the SPY S&P 500 Index ETF with entries. Let’s see what happens with our Globex cousins tonight. Tail risks remain, but rumors are that Zalensky is ready to cave to Russian demands.A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Word of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 3/22/2021 Mar 22, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment Good Morning:As outlined in Sunday’s Navigator Oracle™, the next target for the bulls is the February 2nd high at 4577 on the S&P 500 Futures and 458 on the SPY.Two closes above that high increase the odds of a retest of the all-time highs now adjusted to 4799.75 on the June continuous futures contract (roughly 480 on the SPY).In answer to the question in your mind, yes – new highs sound like total insanity. As long as we all believe that, new highs are possible.Getting past the hopium of higher prices, price also encountered resistance yesterday at the 200-day line and the weekly mean hanging around the high 4460s. I mentioned this likelihood Sunday as well.And market makers and dealers were likely still adjusting their books from Friday’s quarterly options and futures expiration. We will learn a lot more about market direction today.Another event bears mentioning about yesterday; Fed Chairman Powell was apparently displeased with the stock market holding on to its former luxury lifestyle.The master of zero and negative interest rates, profoundly negative real bond yields, and a deliberate policy of artificial wealth creation by fostering a financial asset bubble, stepped into the batter’s box.Powell (and his minions) hit the speaking circuit, jawboning the market with possibilities of 1/2 instead of 1/4 point rate increases at future meetings.True, some of yesterday’s partygoers headed to the porcelain goddess to puke for a few minutes, but they returned and started drinking again.The market finished massively unchanged.And call buyers were still absent, keeping us guessing about the path ahead. For the most part, though, we are in a neutral zone as to the influence of options on the market. Positive gamma kicks in above 4475 and negative gamma below 4400.With the Fed’s combination of currency and credit expansion and market suppression, the difference between state-controlled pricing and market reality has never been more significant.I still like my “don’t look down” analogy of working in an office on the top floor.Every time people fool themselves into thinking we have “corrected” enough or reverted to some historical mean, it’s time to look at the macroeconomic picture, zoom out, and welcome the expression “do look down.”And then, what can the Fed do about the price of food, medicine, gasoline, or rent anyway?The answer is nothing or next to nothing. Rate hikes will not impact such inelastic items.Even if Russia settled everything with Ukraine tomorrow, how do you unring the bell of sanctions?Once again, this global crisis gives us a fast-forward glimpse of what the world is becoming; fragmented, distrusting, and tense.The US thinks it has only sanctioned Russia and its banks. But time will reveal that our country has sanctioned the whole world – and we will pay for it (you and I) with higher prices and higher taxes, assuming we are still able.The next crop harvests are months out; what happens then due to global shortages of everything now?The situation at hand is very similar to what Covid revealed about the way we would buy things (online), where we will work from in the future (not in an office), and what gov’t really thinks of us (not much).The world cannot heal this overnight. We are experiencing fractured global trust, and fraying monetary policy will follow.I think about where the stock market is now, barely a few hundred points from the all-time peak market prices. Will I ever see these levels in my life again?All in all, gold should become an increasingly important reserve asset. But what about Bitcoin? Will it ever live up to its potential?The market tested yesterday’s high at 4473 overnight but remained below the level at this writing.The stock market is likely to open in the upper third of yesterday’s range.Today’s resistance is about the same as yesterday at 4480 and then 4500. Support lies at 4456 and then 4431.Our gamma adjusted daily volatility estimate is 0.82% (open/close) or roughly 36 points north or south of the open.Our orthodox close to close estimate is about 1.1%, adding 50 points north and south of yesterday’s close (4423 to 4500).We have Fed Governors speaking throughout the day again today – Williams (10:30 am EST), Mester (2:00 pm EST), and Daly (5:00 pm EST). The European Central Bank’s President LaGarde also speaks at 9:15 am EST. With so much Central Bank talk, it may not be a good idea to day trade, but at least watch the clock.The opening range trade (going with a breakout of the first 30-minute range) worked well yesterday.Overnight trading is balanced – so I would wait for the market to settle in and watch for the opening range trade again. I don’t see a trade right off the open today.Yesterday’s liquidation break should strengthen the market, taking out potential sellers.We’ve also now gone back to back with overnight sessions that have been almost fully within the RTH sessions, indicative of healthy balance at these higher levels.Price exploration lower has been minimal.Consider yesterday’s RTH range from 4415 to 4473 as neutral and go with the breakout.The overnight profile bulges at 4440 and 4466, so that is a hint as to buyer and seller location until the market decides to break one way or the otherMorning charts are available to subscribers.Have a successful trading day,A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Word of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn
Founder's Trading Journal Morning Notes – 3/21/2022 Mar 21, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment This is a chart of the S&P 50 Index 15-Minute Chart with RTH Data and Key Levels Good Morning and Happy First Day of Spring:Looking at our array of choices, let’s peg 1st support at 4420, then 4400 (our key pivot line discussed in yesterday’s Weekly Oracle).Key resistance sits at 4471 and then 4500.Our sandbox for the expected move today ranges from 4420 to 4500, though I suspect that volatility will vary closer to 36 points up or down from the open.I am looking to buy dips over selling rallies.All else being equal, I try to acquire longs in the green zone and sell them in the red area.Don’t forget the opening range trade if it presents.Despite last week’s significant bounce, the large gamma strikes are predominantly put positions. Gamma at call strikes start to increase above 4400, but those call positions need to increase markedly to offer real market support. Data from last week suggests that call buying was rather anemic.Volatility has contracted somewhat but still reflects inflation and Ukraine conflict tail risk. I still believe we are rallying towards a cease-fire and agreement, and then we see what happens from there.Overnight inventory is balanced and shows good support at 4440. The futures achieved a marginal new high, but the price is back into Friday’s range at this writing.There is nothing to guide us for an opening trade. Let the market settle in a bit.While 4400 is the key pivot, I want to see price hold above Friday’s halfback at 4420. Otherwise, I shift to neutral.Morning charts are available to subscribers.Be careful as dealers and market makers are still adjusting their books this morning which could lead to some random price action.A.F. Thornton Click to Learn More About Navigator™ Trading Subscriptions Word of mouth is crucial for growing our trading community and providing education and support for your trading decisions. Please feel free to share this with your friends and family if you find the information beneficial. Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn