Category Founder’s Trading Journal

Interim Update – 10/4/2022

Good Morning:

  • The Founder’s Group executed a Navigator Swing Buy yesterday (officially announced at 3672.50).
  • The signal gripped, and the market will gap open at our first target. Gap Rules apply.
  • We will monitor for continuation. But if and when the 3751.25 level is conquered, short-covering will kick into higher gear,
  • We have no evidence that this is THE bottom, just a tradable short-covering bounce. We still have more Fed speak today, which could help or hurt – we don’t know for sure.
  • The next big major report is the employment report on Friday, which is where we expect this short-covering rally to end, and the market turn south again. We will see how well our crystal ball works.
  • For today, we are carrying forward a 3715.75 stop on our swing position.
  • Global events have more potential than normal to derail our best-laid plans.

A.F. Thornton

Interim Update 2 – 10/3/2022

The Founder’s Group issued a Navigator Swing Buy signal earlier this morning at 3672.50. The market must close above Friday’s Regular Session high at 3684.50 for the signal to validate. The original signal presented at 3613.50, but the Founders waited for more confirmation – including a break of the short-term downtrend line and a couple of closes above the mean on the hourly chart. 

We have no evidence that this is THE bottom, just a tradable short-covering bounce. We still have potential Fed speak ahead today, which could help or hurt – we don’t know for sure. It is not unwise to wait to execute until the close – which would confirm our 3684.50 validation requirement or not.

The Founder’s Group chose to be early, using a 15-minute trailing stop. The market still has to move through last Thursday’s Gap resistance. But if the market follows through, our first target is 3750.

A.F. Thornton

Interim Update – 10/3/2022

Election Deniers

I don’t know about anyone else, but I think election deniers seriously damage our country and, perhaps, should serve jail time for treason. Watch the short video below and tell me what you think about the “Big Lie?”

As an ironic side note, Hillary Clinton’s stealthy hiring of Igor Danchenko and Christopher Steele’s use of eager Russian sources to find dirt on her political opponent Donald Trump are ironic ways to warn about the dangers of Russian election interference.

But they all do it – they all lie in the government. And they are all Hippocrates. Whether an R or D follows the name is irrelevant these days. Someday, the government will tell us something important – and we won’t believe them because they have no credibility. Remember the “Boy who cried wolf?”

Next Swing Buy Signal

The market seems to be meeting my expectations this morning, but we still need to see what comes from the emergency Fed meeting. A close above Friday’s regular session high at 3684.25 triggers a new swing buy signal, and the price seems to be closing in on the signal.

Who said this?

“Do we want to have here, in our country, … “parent number one, parent number two and parent number three” (they have completely lost it!) instead of mother and father? Do we want our schools to impose on our children, from their earliest days in school, perversions that lead to degradation and extinction? Do we want to drum into their heads the ideas that certain other genders exist along with women and men and to offer them gender reassignment surgery? Is that what we want for our country and our children? This is all unacceptable to us. We have a different future of our own.”

“… This complete renunciation of what it means to be human, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, and the suppression of freedom are coming to resemble a “religion in reverse” – pure Satanism. Exposing false messiahs, Jesus Christ said in the Sermon on the Mount: “By their fruits ye shall know them.” These poisonous fruits are already obvious to people, and not only in our country but also in all countries…”

” Friends, today, we are fighting for a just and free path, … in order to leave dictate and despotism in the past. I am convinced that countries and peoples understand that a policy based on the exceptionalism of whoever it may be and the suppression of other cultures and peoples is inherently criminal, and that we must close this shameful chapter…

Ron Desantis  Vladimir Putin – 09/30/2022

The Real War at Hand

Whether sabotaging pipelines or disseminating propeganda, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the World Economic Forum (“WEF”)and Davos crowd is the true enemy of the free “normal” world. Thus far, Davos has successfully conquered the United States in the 2020 Presidential election coup. 

But thankfully, there is hope. Russia, China, India, and Hungary have taken a stand. More countries will follow. Even in yesterday’s Brazilian election, the battle for the soul of that country also looms.

Interestingly, the Davos crowd ran the same play as here in the U.S. in an attempt to steal Brazil’s presidential election yesterday. The election was mostly electronic, with no audit trails to examine. If you want to know how they do it, read “The Parallel Election – a Blueprint for Deception.”

Bolsenero, the traditional values candidate, came in second. But Bolsenaro, fortunately, did well enough to trigger a runoff. As we have learned here in the U.S., traditional candidates do so exceedingly well that the other side has to cheat (e.g., 80 million votes for President Orwell). 

As in the 2020 U.S. election with Trump, all the down-ballot conservative candidates running with Bolsenaro won. But inexplicably and defying any sense of statistical probabilities, Bolsenaro came in second. So the sophisticated Davos-inspired cheating operations continue unabated.

Don’t get your hopes up for the midterms here, either. Despite overwhelming odds favoring traditional patriots, many of the same people are in charge of elections as in 2020. Why would they stop cheating now – when the left risks losing all their power and dreams? The left is already priming the “suppression polls” trying to convince everyone it is a close election. But the truth is that Republicans are 21 points ahead of the Democrats in unbiased polls. But yopu cannot get away with cheating if you don’t pretend the election is neck and neck close.

We are in the battle of a lifetime unless you like what the Orwell Administration and their Davos puppetmasters have delivered since January 2021. And it would not surprise me to eventually learn that Davos unleashed the China Virus in the first place. Nothing surprises me any longer.

Don’t buy the propaganda about Russia. Trust your insticts. Who are the real bad guys in this world right now? Instead, read Putin’s speech. Watch what he does. Putin nailed Davos and the left in his speech. 

Also, recall that Putin was one of Klaus Schwab’s chosen ones (Klaus heads the World Economic Forum in Davos). Putin left the nest in disgust. 

And, is there any doubt who installed the Ukrainian government in the color revolution of 2014? Does the name George Soros ring a bell? Who do you think helps fund the WEF?

I rest my case.

A.F. Thornton

Founders’ Trading Notes – 10/3/2022

Good morning:

We are coming into Monday morning with nuances that will make day-trading unwise today. The nuances include an emergency Fed meeting and multiple Fed governors speaking. Given all we see and while we came into the new calendar quarter neutral, we are on high alert for a swing buy signal for swing traders.

The bear case currently rests on four pillars — excessive valuations, inflation, a hostile Fed, and a looming (if not already underway) recession. I am sympathetic to all four and lean bearish myself, but the end of the world is unlikely at hand.

As an example. various leading indicators of inflation such as commodity prices have been waning lately. But note OPEC is planning to cut production.

There is evidence in positioning, short interest, put volumes, surging CDS, and rising cash levels that we are approaching panic levels. The risk is not so much that the bears are wrong as they appear overly eager.

For day trading today, I would ride a rally up to +1.5% on the upside and then look to short. Or, if the price drops by -3% on the downside first, I might consider shorting. Anything in between is neutral.

The 5-day EMA at 3663.75 would be the first pillar to conquer.

A.F. Thornton

Interim Update 2 – 9/30/2022

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - On The Edge
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - On The Edge

Good Afternoon:

  • As I just informed subscribers, I think we will stand down today and see what develops on Monday.
  • I did cheat a little and we made a few points on some morning longs in the Founder’s Trading Room, but things turned south after Putin’s speech.
  • The Russian annexation of Ukraine’s four provinces and Ukraine’s application to join NATO are throwing the markets another monkey wrench. And there will be a big announcement from the Allied Powers at 1900 EST. 
  • Wow, we cannot wait to see what new suicide methods the woke crowd has for us now.
  • This is a crazy time; if the shorts start making money today, our short-covering window expires.
  • And if they run the shorts into the close like last week, it still leaves the market hanging around the recent lows – a cliffhanger.
  • And though we are close, there is no solid buy signal yet.
  • We also know things are breaking in Europe and the rest of the financial system. The NYSE Advance/Decline is at new lows.
  • And, as usual, I want a peaceful weekend.

Enjoy the weekend. Keep your families close and safe. It promises to get interesting next week for sure.

A.F. Thornton

Interim Update – 9/30/2022

Good Morning:

  • As indicated in previous posts, today is the last day of the month and calendar quarter. It is also a weekly and quarterly expiration.
  • We come into today neutral and in cash on all strategies, yet on high alert for a short covering rally to develop soon.
  • There is strong support at the 3600 Put Wall, which may hold us today. But resistance comes in at the 5-day line at 3685, which needs to be conquered for a good pop higher.
  • If anything, I would be more likely to wait for the close to do anything, and then, wouldn’t it be fun to hold over the weekend?

As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton

Epilogue – 9/29/2020

Good Evening:

Our morning long did not stick, but we were well-positioned, entering at 3632.25. And then we were rewarded with 25 points as we exited on our trailing stop at 3658. It was tempting to try again as the market approached the close, but there wasn’t enough runway left, and the Founders Group did not want to hold overnight.

The question is whether Europe’s woes are ready to spill over to the U.S. now or later. And interestingly, the S&P 500 Index is pounding on the June low with no real success in sustaining a decisive break. Properly placed, a trade near the morning price is a low, risk-to-stop trade entry point. We can still make money even if the rally fizzles.

Our algorithm is slowly but surely running through its list of buy alerts. But we have no comprehensive swing buy signal yet – even though it is close. And close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. Still, a short squeeze is getting closer even if the market goes a bit lower (and by all rights, the stock market should). And to further complicate matters, tomorrow gets dicey as the last day of the month and the calendar quarter.

We would love to work another swing buy signal with short-squeeze tailwinds. And everything looks to be set up—five sessions and no acceptance below the June lows. To us, it seems like the shorts are getting trapped. It pays to “think” and identify the “pain” trade. Right now, the pain trade is higher.

Ben Franklin once said you must buy on the canons and sell on the trumpets. Canons are firing, and the sentiment might be too bearish for further declines – at least for now. And even if nothing happens tomorrow, money managers have one final calendar quarter to try to recover from their terrible year-to-date performance. Their FOMO will kick into high gear on Monday.

I wish tomorrow weren’t Friday or the end of the calendar quarter. Money managers will be window-dressing before taking the plunge and putting real money to work on Monday. Their activities will likely fog my screens – at least for tomorrow. And then, will I want to be long all weekend? How about short if everything goes south?

Nobody said it would be easy. Let’s see how it all lines up.

A.F. Thornton

Interim Update – 9/28/2022

Good Morning:

  • As mentioned Monday, my schedule is tight this week, which has made it challenging to be generous with my public commentary.
  • The bottom line this week, and even this morning, is that the S&P 500 should be in a lot worse shape than it is, given all the “visible” circumstances.
  • While continuously flirting with a break below the June 3639 lows, there is no sustained break.
  • If it is not going down, the stock market is likely going up – even if it is just another short-covering rally.
  • And let’s face it – the short-covering rallies in this bear market have been spectacular – and those involved will always hope that the short-covering rally at hand will become the bottom of the bear.
  • Nobody will ring a bell at the bottom – or a low – and the news will be just as dire as it is now.
  • For anyone paying attention, there has been global sabotage of food and energy production and distribution centers over the past 12 months (including in our own “open borders” country).
  • An organized cabal is out to purposely make worse a food and energy crisis already on the horizon for this winter.
  • In the past year, some organized Cabal has already sabotaged at least 20 important food and energy production facilities in our country alone. Apparently, the mainstream media is not allowed to discuss it, which says a lot about the Cabal’s identity and connections.
  • So the sabotage of the Nordstream Pipelines is no surprise. It is highly likely a Globalist plan executed by the Orwell regime.
  • And we already know that the regime operates on the orders of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex and its partners in the World Economic Forum (“WEF”), International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the United Nations (UN).
  • The Orwell regime’s handlers do not want the Russia / Ukraine conflict resolved unless they can dethrone Putin and carve up Russia.
  • A resolution of the conflict would restore cheap, free-flowing Russian energy to Europe again.
  • Restoring cheap Russian energy would compete with the climate change agenda and strengthen Russia’s European influence.
  • With friends like President Orwell and the Cabal that pulls his strings, Europe hardly needs enemies.
  • But for now, there is little to no reaction in our stock market – which supports a potential short-covering rally soon.
  • Given the plethora of negative events, rejecting prices below the June low is bullish – at least for the short term.
  • And positive seasonality kicks in for stocks about the middle of October, perhaps boosted by the mid-term elections that follow. Of course, the markets could still set off some fireworks between now and then.
  • My forecast is simple. The market will continue to drift down, interrupted by steep, quick short-covering rallies through next spring. One of those rallies is close at hand.
  • If this bear market is like the others I have studied and experienced; the short-covering rallies will diminish in strength and intensity over time before the final bear market capitulation.
  • Since last week, the Founder’s Group has continued to reverse positions from long to short and vice versa on short-term buy and sell signals by applying the Navigator Algorithms to the hourly charts. Our previous short was 3700.25 yesterday, which we reversed at 3642.75 on something we call a “cradle” buy signal. 
  • But our public stance and swing-trading accounts have been neutral since yesterday but remain on high alert for a buy signal in the swing-trading algorithms.
  • We maintain that neutrality, with the risk of a rally higher than the risk of further declines at this moment. The market’s muted reaction to the Nordstream Pipeline sabotage underscores that position.
  • The sabotage makes a settlement of the Russia / Ukraine conflict more difficult. That was the intention. The Globalists want war, aiming to conquer Russia and China at any cost. 
  • And since the Globalists have a parallel objective of population reduction – you can see that a war with Russia and China accomplishes more than one of their objectives.
  • As one example of a direct threat to the Cabal, Russia’s constitution declares the country a Christian nation. Further, Russia also made traditional marriage between a man and woman a constitutional position.
  • Russia does not want the anti-family, anti-church, anti-gender, and sexual child-grooming Great Reset agenda overtaking Western Nations – much less Russia.
  • China doesn’t want the Great Reset for different reasons. They do not favor “girlie-men” or sexual liberalism -especially with their children.
  • The plot is hard at work, putting us into a war with Russia and China because the Cabal cannot implement the Great Reset until the two opposing superpowers are out of the way. 
  • The Cabal has already conquered the U.S. with the 2020 Coup and all that has followed. It should be obvious to anyone as we watch our liberties destroyed and our government institutions weaponized against half of the country.
  • That is how the Cabal can get a submarine to take out Nordstream while leaving Norway’s new gas pipeline unharmed.

Stay tuned, hold on to your wallet, and we will do our best to keep you out of harm’s way.

A.F. Thornton

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