Category Founder’s Trading Journal

We are on the precipice – and the bottom of the cliff may still be a long way down from here. This is an important but short video on the stock market’s current location, next moves, and timing of the foreseeable cyclical lows. 

A.F. Thornton

Good Morning:

My tolerance for giving up our swing buy gains is low. I had wanted to see the index hold 3775, and we are slightly below that level in Globex – so my finger is on the sell trigger. 

All I see is market participants moving their put positions around. If they are not buying calls – the rally is unsustainable.

Resistance remains at 3800, with support at 3749, then 3700.

A.F. Thornton

Good Morning:

  • The Founder’s Group executed a Navigator Swing Buy yesterday (officially announced at 3672.50).
  • The signal gripped, and the market will gap open at our first target. Gap Rules apply.
  • We will monitor for continuation. But if and when the 3751.25 level is conquered, short-covering will kick into higher gear,
  • We have no evidence that this is THE bottom, just a tradable short-covering bounce. We still have more Fed speak today, which could help or hurt – we don’t know for sure.
  • The next big major report is the employment report on Friday, which is where we expect this short-covering rally to end, and the market turn south again. We will see how well our crystal ball works.
  • For today, we are carrying forward a 3715.75 stop on our swing position.
  • Global events have more potential than normal to derail our best-laid plans.

A.F. Thornton

The Founder’s Group issued a Navigator Swing Buy signal earlier this morning at 3672.50. The market must close above Friday’s Regular Session high at 3684.50 for the signal to validate. The original signal presented at 3613.50, but the Founders waited for more confirmation – including a break of the short-term downtrend line and a couple of closes above the mean on the hourly chart. 

We have no evidence that this is THE bottom, just a tradable short-covering bounce. We still have potential Fed speak ahead today, which could help or hurt – we don’t know for sure. It is not unwise to wait to execute until the close – which would confirm our 3684.50 validation requirement or not.

The Founder’s Group chose to be early, using a 15-minute trailing stop. The market still has to move through last Thursday’s Gap resistance. But if the market follows through, our first target is 3750.

A.F. Thornton

Election Deniers

I don’t know about anyone else, but I think election deniers seriously damage our country and, perhaps, should serve jail time for treason. Watch the short video below and tell me what you think about the “Big Lie?”

As an ironic side note, Hillary Clinton’s stealthy hiring of Igor Danchenko and Christopher Steele’s use of eager Russian sources to find dirt on her political opponent Donald Trump are ironic ways to warn about the dangers of Russian election interference.

But they all do it – they all lie in the government. And they are all Hippocrates. Whether an R or D follows the name is irrelevant these days. Someday, the government will tell us something important – and we won’t believe them because they have no credibility. Remember the “Boy who cried wolf?”

Next Swing Buy Signal

The market seems to be meeting my expectations this morning, but we still need to see what comes from the emergency Fed meeting. A close above Friday’s regular session high at 3684.25 triggers a new swing buy signal, and the price seems to be closing in on the signal.

Who said this?

“Do we want to have here, in our country, … “parent number one, parent number two and parent number three” (they have completely lost it!) instead of mother and father? Do we want our schools to impose on our children, from their earliest days in school, perversions that lead to degradation and extinction? Do we want to drum into their heads the ideas that certain other genders exist along with women and men and to offer them gender reassignment surgery? Is that what we want for our country and our children? This is all unacceptable to us. We have a different future of our own.”

“… This complete renunciation of what it means to be human, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, and the suppression of freedom are coming to resemble a “religion in reverse” – pure Satanism. Exposing false messiahs, Jesus Christ said in the Sermon on the Mount: “By their fruits ye shall know them.” These poisonous fruits are already obvious to people, and not only in our country but also in all countries…”

” Friends, today, we are fighting for a just and free path, … in order to leave dictate and despotism in the past. I am convinced that countries and peoples understand that a policy based on the exceptionalism of whoever it may be and the suppression of other cultures and peoples is inherently criminal, and that we must close this shameful chapter…

Ron Desantis  Vladimir Putin – 09/30/2022

The Real War at Hand

Whether sabotaging pipelines or disseminating propeganda, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the World Economic Forum (“WEF”)and Davos crowd is the true enemy of the free “normal” world. Thus far, Davos has successfully conquered the United States in the 2020 Presidential election coup. 

But thankfully, there is hope. Russia, China, India, and Hungary have taken a stand. More countries will follow. Even in yesterday’s Brazilian election, the battle for the soul of that country also looms.

Interestingly, the Davos crowd ran the same play as here in the U.S. in an attempt to steal Brazil’s presidential election yesterday. The election was mostly electronic, with no audit trails to examine. If you want to know how they do it, read “The Parallel Election – a Blueprint for Deception.”

Bolsenero, the traditional values candidate, came in second. But Bolsenaro, fortunately, did well enough to trigger a runoff. As we have learned here in the U.S., traditional candidates do so exceedingly well that the other side has to cheat (e.g., 80 million votes for President Orwell). 

As in the 2020 U.S. election with Trump, all the down-ballot conservative candidates running with Bolsenaro won. But inexplicably and defying any sense of statistical probabilities, Bolsenaro came in second. So the sophisticated Davos-inspired cheating operations continue unabated.

Don’t get your hopes up for the midterms here, either. Despite overwhelming odds favoring traditional patriots, many of the same people are in charge of elections as in 2020. Why would they stop cheating now – when the left risks losing all their power and dreams? The left is already priming the “suppression polls” trying to convince everyone it is a close election. But the truth is that Republicans are 21 points ahead of the Democrats in unbiased polls. But yopu cannot get away with cheating if you don’t pretend the election is neck and neck close.

We are in the battle of a lifetime unless you like what the Orwell Administration and their Davos puppetmasters have delivered since January 2021. And it would not surprise me to eventually learn that Davos unleashed the China Virus in the first place. Nothing surprises me any longer.

Don’t buy the propaganda about Russia. Trust your insticts. Who are the real bad guys in this world right now? Instead, read Putin’s speech. Watch what he does. Putin nailed Davos and the left in his speech. 

Also, recall that Putin was one of Klaus Schwab’s chosen ones (Klaus heads the World Economic Forum in Davos). Putin left the nest in disgust. 

And, is there any doubt who installed the Ukrainian government in the color revolution of 2014? Does the name George Soros ring a bell? Who do you think helps fund the WEF?

I rest my case.

A.F. Thornton

Good morning:

We are coming into Monday morning with nuances that will make day-trading unwise today. The nuances include an emergency Fed meeting and multiple Fed governors speaking. Given all we see and while we came into the new calendar quarter neutral, we are on high alert for a swing buy signal for swing traders.

The bear case currently rests on four pillars — excessive valuations, inflation, a hostile Fed, and a looming (if not already underway) recession. I am sympathetic to all four and lean bearish myself, but the end of the world is unlikely at hand.

As an example. various leading indicators of inflation such as commodity prices have been waning lately. But note OPEC is planning to cut production.

There is evidence in positioning, short interest, put volumes, surging CDS, and rising cash levels that we are approaching panic levels. The risk is not so much that the bears are wrong as they appear overly eager.

For day trading today, I would ride a rally up to +1.5% on the upside and then look to short. Or, if the price drops by -3% on the downside first, I might consider shorting. Anything in between is neutral.

The 5-day EMA at 3663.75 would be the first pillar to conquer.

A.F. Thornton

S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - On The Edge
S&P 500 Index Continuous Futures - On The Edge

Good Afternoon:

  • As I just informed subscribers, I think we will stand down today and see what develops on Monday.
  • I did cheat a little and we made a few points on some morning longs in the Founder’s Trading Room, but things turned south after Putin’s speech.
  • The Russian annexation of Ukraine’s four provinces and Ukraine’s application to join NATO are throwing the markets another monkey wrench. And there will be a big announcement from the Allied Powers at 1900 EST. 
  • Wow, we cannot wait to see what new suicide methods the woke crowd has for us now.
  • This is a crazy time; if the shorts start making money today, our short-covering window expires.
  • And if they run the shorts into the close like last week, it still leaves the market hanging around the recent lows – a cliffhanger.
  • And though we are close, there is no solid buy signal yet.
  • We also know things are breaking in Europe and the rest of the financial system. The NYSE Advance/Decline is at new lows.
  • And, as usual, I want a peaceful weekend.

Enjoy the weekend. Keep your families close and safe. It promises to get interesting next week for sure.

A.F. Thornton

Good Morning:

  • As indicated in previous posts, today is the last day of the month and calendar quarter. It is also a weekly and quarterly expiration.
  • We come into today neutral and in cash on all strategies, yet on high alert for a short covering rally to develop soon.
  • There is strong support at the 3600 Put Wall, which may hold us today. But resistance comes in at the 5-day line at 3685, which needs to be conquered for a good pop higher.
  • If anything, I would be more likely to wait for the close to do anything, and then, wouldn’t it be fun to hold over the weekend?

As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton

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