Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Morning:

Futures were quiet overnight with a slightly negative bent. Price is trading near 3925 at this writing.
The key levels we are watching remain unchanged, with the one-day implied move at 0.95%.
Support shows at the WEM low at 3930, then 3910 (SPY 390) – 3900, with key resistance at 3950-3960 (SPY 395).
Resistance above there is at 4000.
Overnight traders are testing prices below yesterday’s low, which casts a negative pale at the open, should prices find acceptance at these levels.
But Dealers should also defend 3930, and prices below that number should be out of the question for the rest of the week.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda, right? The WEM range has been less reliable since the MEME and DTE crowd stepped in, but we will note the projected WEM low for the record.
For decades now, arbs run the market up before the first week of the last month of the calendar quarter and then short S&P 500 index products for a week or so.
Add tax selling to the equation in a down year like 2022, and you can see the ensuing pattern of a dip into mid-month.
This year, we have the Fed Meeting uncertainty and monthly/quarterly options and futures expiration to add to the picture.
So regardless of anything else, the market will likely follow the December script it has tracked since the late 1800s and laid out in these pages last week.
In my view, it simply started a few days early this year.
So do we get the next bear leg – taking us to new lows?
That depends on whether the longer, 60-year cycle has already bottomed.
We cannot know that yet for sure. The “scheduled” bottom was October 22. But we can continue to respect the 12/1 Navigator Swing sell signal until the next buy signal paints.
In the meantime, let’s follow the December pattern and patiently await Santa, who usually shows up around December 15.
I will be in the trading room again tomorrow. In the meantime, the live charts are up.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Morning:
I expect sideways to higher to continue over the next few sessions, before a roll-down into the middle or late middle of the month;
Though Europe just reported another surge in inflation, the absence of exogenous stimuli Here at Home likely results in traders selling implied volatility which is a market positive.
Let’s peg 4,200.00 as the current upper bound. Below this, I expect muted volatility so long as the Volatility Trigger at 3,995.00 is unbroken.
Now, back to the headline. I am going to answer this question with our 2023 forecast which I plan to publish right after Christmas.
The S&P 500 forecast will be available to all subscribers, but the forecast for premium subscribers also includes:
- US Indices: DJIA and Nasdaq (Master Cycle Forecasts)
- Harmonic models for 2023 and much much more…
- Treasury Notes and USD Dollar Index
- Commodities: CRB-index, Crude Oil, Wheat, Gold & Silver, and
- Major Stock Market Indices: FTSE, AEX, DAX, NSEI, SSEC, HSI, N225 & XAOThere will be
- lots of analysis using different Gann, Hurst Cycle, and other technical analysis techniques.
And yes, I will be disclosing one of my long-held secrets, a simple change I made to turn my inconsistent, mediocre trading results into seven-figure gains almost overnight.
This change has never stopped working and likely never will.
For swing and day-trading subscribers, I will be putting up the hourly swing chart with the Navigator buy and sell signals live in the Trading Room later today.
Also, be sure to sign up for the phone app in the Trading Room to receive live swing trades. They come fast and frequently in the current volatility.
A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Morning:

Well, dear, not exactly. it is a good thing we went back to cash yesterday with a nice scalp under our belt. The hourly charts continue to be THE reliable harmonic for the current tape.
And the price action (pre-market) dovetails with the path forecasted in chart above, which shows the seasonal tendency for December. There is a 65% probability we peak about now and dip into mid-month. That times with the Fed rate announcement and monthly options expiration.
And so, in our final data point this week, the November jobs report this morning blew out the consensus number at 200,000 new jobs, coming in at 263,000. Of course, we still have to analyze how much the Orwell Administration cooked the books, as has been their habit.
Needless to say, recession hungry Miss Market is not happy! This is one of those “hot” prints feared and discussed as a risk earlier this week.
As a side note, average hourly earnings were up, but not enough to keep up with inflation. And the average work week is hovering around 34 hours. Where the hell are we, Europe?
Back to the market, resistance remains at a band above from 4100 – 4110 (the SPX Call Wall + the SPY 410 Call Wall). There is resistance above there at 4126.
Still, mark any SPX move >4110 as overbought.
Support shows at 4050-4055 (SPY 405), then 4000.
Given where we are, we vote for the typical December pattern in the chart above, with must-hold support at 4000 for any bull case to remain alive.

There is a lot not to like about this latest rally leg. It is wide and disjointed compared to the rallies earlier this year.
And we have now completed our three pushes-up in the bearish rising wedge pattern.
There are lots of negative divergences in the pattern. And accumulation lacks the strength of the previous run-ups.
And the volume on the explosive up day Wednesday looks like a spikey peak.
On the positive side, if the foldback marked in the chart above crosses above the August 16 high, I expect the S&P 500 to move into the crest of the foldback.
Measured moves may indicate a potential target price/time area but are certainly not guaranteed.
Also. the accumulation indicator (lower chart) suggests that accumulation lags compared to early swings.
Bullish investors could try to buy the 4000 area on this dip but keep your stop tight.
Otherwise, it might be best to look for an entry in mid-December.

As always, stay tuned, and have a great weekend.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Morning:

Remember the video we put out above around the October bottom? My favorite part of the scene is the guy waving out the window at the other guy trying to get on the train that is leaving. That must be what it was like to be short yesterday.
I think I will take a victory lap on this video. But dont worry, i wont let it go to my head. This business always has some humble pie to serve up when you get cocky.
I will be in the Trading Room for the morning session today. I am working on a one-week free trial to those who may want to give it a try.
Futures are off marginally to 4077 after a quiet overnight session.
The 4100 Call Wall is now near-term resistance, with 4124 slated to provide additional resistance above.
Support today shows at 4055 (SPY405) to 4050, with 4000 as key bull/bear threshold support.
Back in positive Gamma territory, we now look for volatility to begin contracting sharply, implying average daily S&P 500 Cash Index moves <=1%.
Still, bulls are not quite on solid ground, as the options market still shows some anxiety around the PCE/ISM reports today and Non-Farm payrolls tomorrow.
This can be seen in the SPX options term structure. Right now, the shortest-dated implied volatility is above the longer-dated.
The implication is that traders are worried about a “hot” print in today and tomorrow’s data, which could quickly unwind yesterday’s gains.
And some event volatility premium remains around the 12/14 Fed Meeting and rate announcement.
For now, there is room for the market to grind a little higher, where it will encounter the bear market down trendline while it fights to hold and conquer the 200-day line around 4075.
Also, note from the chart below that the price is approaching the center of the 20-week cycle. The cycle would have peaked in the first 1/3 of the semi-circle in a more bearish environment. Like the previous 20-week cycle that brought us the October 13th low, this cycle shows early, bullish intentions.

Yesterday’s price action continues to be a stunner and an indication of the unrelenting focus required in this environment. I reprinted the hourly chart with our signals above.
We came in yesterday morning with our strategies in cash and our more aggressive clients short from the 11/24 sell signal and peak. I almost wanted to take the morning off.
But our algos started painting buy signals two hours before Fed Chairman Powell spoke. It paid to reverse course, though it was a difficult choice in an environment where the consensus view expected a crash after Fed Chairman Powell’s speech.
As a side note, several Fed Governors are hitting the speaking circuit today, and I am already wondering whether they will try to walk back Chairman Powell’s dovish tone yesterday.
For now, It has paid to manage from the hourly chart perspective in this DTE ( one-day to expiration) options environment.

A reprint of yesterday’s algo buy signals (with the 11/24 sell signal) appears in the chart above. While we enjoyed the gains, let’s note for the record that days like yesterday and 11/10 (brought to us by the DTE options crowd) will also present in reverse, so don’t take your proverbial eye off the ball.
Let’s see if there is enough follow-through for the market to grind a little higher from here before the cycles catch up. The algos will guide us, and we will stick to the hourly charts for swing trading until something changes.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Afternoon:

This morning I mentioned the rising wedge pattern on the daily S&P 500 Futures chart – I guess we could call it “Door Number Two.” See the chart from this morning for more detail. “Door Number One” was the crash promoted all over the internet lately.
And while I cannot say I thought higher prices were the most likely scenario, I have been beating the “Door Number Two” drum lately about a final leg up to at least 4075 before another meaningful correction ensues. The price closed today at 4087.
I also mentioned the Door Number Two, “Pain Trade,” this morning. Call it whatever you want, but Murphy’s law usually kicks in when the crowd is lopsided, and one part of them is poised to lose a lot of money. In other words, I ask myself every day how the market could ^&&* the most people simultaneously. Today, we observed the “Pain Trade” in all its glory, punishing the short sellers.
Call it instinct, but I never joined the “crash crowd.” Recall our video “Where’s the Crash?” at the October 13th low? The footage looks downright sentient now. Fading consensus isn’t easy, and the timing has to be right. As then, everyone thought they had this one figured out today. But I had one of those gnawing feelings that the crowd was about to get a surprise.
Of course, I don’t operate from feelings. I use objective algorithms because they work.
The algorithms took us out on 11/24 at the recent high and got us back in on the trendline, weekly, and daily means today near the low. The signals were nearly perfect, as seen from the hourly chart above.
Even more helpful is the fact that the new algo predicted a turn at 3947 in the 10:00 am EST hour today. But the prediction was made in advance several days ago. The price, timing, and turn practically hit on the nose; 3942.75 during the designated hour.
Additionally, two traditional Navigator Algorithm buy signals painted this morning – a few hours before the market reacted to Fed Chairman Powell’s speech. You can see the signals in the chart above. Honestly, taking the cues was tough, but the rest is history.
I will cover more of this in tomorrow’s outlook, but I wanted you to see the power of the new day-trading algorithm – even as applied to the hourly chart.
The biggest challenge now is that price has traveled nearly to the top of the pattern in a single day. But it has room to go higher, depending on whether the rising wedge pattern completes or we morph into a normal uptrend. We will evaluate the subdivisions of the rise for more clues in the coming days.
And, of course, a lot of this is short-covering. We need real, follow-through buying to confirm the rise.
The Founders Group has already sold half of our leveraged position, and we are holding the other half as a runner to see if prices can increase.
And this move is more confirmation that the 10/13 low may mark the middle of the four-year-cycle and mid-term election pause and perhaps even the bottom of the 60-year cycle.
Still, the last third of the 60-year cycle, including its 20-year and 18-month components, show downward pressure on prices into March. But when the price bounces out of a low like October with this kind of velocity, you can be sure that larger cycles are at work.
I will produce a video on all of this soon.

Have a great afternoon. We learn to enjoy days like this because it all starts over in the morning, and the battle begins anew.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

Another Calm Before the Storm?

Nov 30, 2022 AF Thornton 0 Comment

Good Morning:

Futures are quiet, trading near 3970. A multi-day string of key data points begins today with pre-market GDP revisions, then Fed Chairman Powell speaking at 1:30 PM ET.
Mark primary resistance at 4000, then 4048.
Support starts at a band near 3960 (SPY 395) to 3950, then 3890 (SPY 390 and the Put Wall).
Today likely sets up a strong directional move into the 12/14 Fed announcement, coinciding with the 12/16 monthly options expiration.
On a breakout higher, we are looking for a target of 4200. A close above 4000 is bullish, as 4000 should invoke strong support.
On a break of 3900, the major support line is the 3600 Put Wall.
Gamma flips materially negative below 3900, likely to coincide with a large implied volatility spike.
Lower equity prices and higher implied volatility would invoke a reflexive feedback loop wherein dealers exacerbate declines by selling futures into dips.
Meanwhile, all Navigator Algorithm timeframes are either in cash or short. We formally closed out the 10/13 swing buy signal on Monday. However, swing accounts were already in cash or short from the hourly sell/short signal on 11/24.
This morning’s takeaway is that the range of possible prices is sharply skewed to the downside.
But – and it is a big but (no pun intended) – you will see a rising wedge pattern still visible on the chart above, predicting one last burst higher, possibly into that 4075-4200 target area set back in October.
I would call that the “pain” trade for now because nobody expects the market to continue higher.
As the market currently sits on the lower wedge boundary, there is not much tolerance for lower prices today other than a few stop runs.
A rally had been underway Monday until Fed Governors hit the speaking circuit to talk the market down. The Fed does not appear to want the stock market to go up.
So even if the rising wedge pattern gets a final leg higher, the rally will be short-lived before the market rolls over on the Nominal 80-day cycle.
Don’t forget that today is the last trading day of November – so not always ideal for day trading. And the market is not likely to do much until Powell’s speech is published later in the session.
We had an exceptionally good day in the trading room yesterday. I will be in the room again on Thursday.
You have to see the enhanced day trading algorithm to believe it. It is an awesome new tool for our arsenal.
I have also carried many of the improvements and concepts into the swing algorithms.
The main improvements make the algorithms use artificial intelligence to predict future prices and turns.
In other words, we know the time and price level where the buy or sell signals will likely paint in the future.
Then we look for price action (HOLB or LOHB breaches) for final confirmation.
The algo can predict patterns up to a year in advance.
After seeing the new algorithms operate, my wife commented that she would be pleased to see my brain improve, as she currently views it as artificially intelligent too.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Morning:

Futures gapped down in Globex, pinning around 4000 most of the night. Unrest in China, plus all the other global troubles, put traders in Asia and Europe in a bad mood. Gap Rules are likely to apply this morning, though I wrote this an hour and a half before the NYSE Open.
Today, major resistance remains at 4050-4060 (SPY 450). Support shows at 3960.
4000 remains a “fair value” pivot area for the S&P 500, given a large amount of balanced gamma (i.e., calls + puts) tied to that strike.
For today and tomorrow, look for more pinning at 4000 as we see traders “buying dips” and “selling rips” around this “strike spike” with most of the current open interest. The WEM range for the week is 3967-4100.
We have Fed speakers all week, including today. Also, new monthly economic reports come out as we step into December on Thursday. Volatility is likely to pick up towards the end of the week.
I have included the Monthly and Weekly charts above with notations. We are 11 months into this bear. We don’t want to be lulled into complacency on the seasonal tendency for stocks to rise from the OCtover lows. Bad things still happened from here in the last two bears, as you can see from the monthly chart above.
And, needless to say, the current rally is getting “long in the tooth,” as the saying goes. Fear and Greed sentiment is back to bullish (which is bearish). It is not extreme, but the bullish level counsels us to be careful here,
Still, the market is holding up remarkably well if we simply look at the price.
The latest rally does not have a lot of volume backing it, and the next 20-week cycle low comes in February 2023. While this rally checked the boxes for a trade, it does not look like a solid bottom or end to the bear as yet.
I am not with the crash crowd, unless there is a black swan catalyst. But I believe we will set the market back down for some kind of retest of the October lows in February/March time frame. If so, this bear would look more like the typical mid-cycle pause (though about twice the normal percentage dip) we encounter in most mid-term election years.
And that would be notable too. We are in the middle of the four-year cycle. And that would mean that the biggest part of this bear, or its cousin, still lies ahead. The four-year cycle correction is the largest we typically encounter and the penultimate low would come sometime in 2024.
So the meat grinder will be on for a while, regardless of what the market does in the short term.
Since we are already 1/3 of the way through the 20-week cycle and “dancing near the exit,” caution is warranted. We carefully watch our stop and trigger lines as they could beat the algo to a sell signal.
Note that the rally has taken a bearish, rising wedge shape, and we are in the third push, which typically ends this first leg,
I still think we will tag the 200-day line and previously mentioned price targets beginning around 4075, but we cannot take anything for granted.
I will tee up the new day trading algo to beta test it in the room later this morning. Tomorrow is the day we trade it. Be there or be square.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Morning:

I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday. Time with friends and family can be an amazing cure for the ills surrounding us this year.
For the markets, we now have two closes over 4000 for the S&P 500 under our belt. The 11/15 intraday high near 4050 and the 200-day line around 4075 are within reach.
If those levels are achieved, our longstanding “C” = “A” rally target comes into sight at 4126.50.
Futures are off slightly to 4035 on this holiday-shortened trading day. The Call Wall for the SPX/SPY is now in sync at 4050-4060 (SPY405), which is the major resistance area for today. Support shows at 4024 and 4000.
We must prepare ourselves for a highly volatile December with another Fed Meeting looming on December 2. Paradoxically, a gigantic reversal pattern to potentially take the market up near the former highs is forming on the S&P 500 Index.
Is such a reversal even possible? Or are we dancing near the exits, tempting fate? A late-year market recovery would catch many people off guard – another so-called “pain” trade. Only time will tell.
For now, as long as the market holds the daily 5-day line and the Navigator Algo trigger, the 10/13 buy Navigator buy sIgnal retains its validity, even though it does seem long in the tooth.
And good, bad, or indifferent, we have passed the midpoint of the nominal 80-day cycle, and we should see this wave peak soon and chart a path into a mid-December trough.
As always, we will let the Navigator Algorithm do the work while we continue to work the hourly chart signals.
I am excited to introduce the new BluQuant day-trading strategy and algorithm in the trading room next Tuesday. I will have all the written rules out to subscribers on Sunday night.
Wednesday’s 5-minute chart appears above. We will do a dress rehearsal on Monday in the room, but Tuesday, we will get serious. I will have the chart in the room today so you can watch it in motion.
Watching this system paint the buy/sell signals is a wonder as it structures the trading frames in real time, predicting each turning point. The algo proves that we live in some matrix governed by ascertainable mathematical rules.

I wish you a joyous holiday season!

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Good Morning:

Overnight traders did their best to drive the index below yesterday’s low but failed.
So we will see if today’s crowd can take us up and out of what appears to be a bull flag.
Instead of obsessing on a crash, investor energy might be redirected to how well the S&P 500 and Dow are holding up under the Crypto crash and other negatives.

So my outlook has not changed. We have a couple of short-term cycles to transit until we begin our journey to the 18-month cycle low in early spring.
And who really cares about wild market calls anyway? It is all ego. We are here to make money.
We will work both sides of the market as it presents.
We continue long from the 10/13 Navigator Algo buy signal, working it through the hourly charts until we are stopped on a serious poke below the 5-day line.
Granted, we have come close several times, but close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
The next event is the November Fed minute release tomorrow. Either they will continue their hawkish stance (expected) or soften the rhetoric (rally ahead).
Let’s continue the ride. You know the framework – 4000 resistance, 3900 support, and 3950 neutral.
Don’t forget, parachutes from 3900 to 3600.
I will be in the trading room about 30 minutes after the open.

A.F. Thornton

Founder's Trading Journal

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Wake the Hell Up and Realize What We are Up Against – 1/11/2021

Good Morning:

Just a little January 11, 2021 antidote from Rush – he saw it all coming just as we did. But like most of you, we did not want to believe that we had lost our country to psychopathic, European, communist, authoritarian, eugenicists – but it has happened.
And the brain-dead President Orwell is a corrupt World Economic Forum tool, sadly worshiping at the feet of WEF leader Klaus Der Wienershnizel (the real Dr. Evil).
And while President Orwell pursues the WEF Utopian fantasy (which doesn’t include you), China, Russia, and the other BRICS nations are methodically and justifiably plotting our undoing.
With two more years at the helm and help from the RINOs, the Orwellians will solidify their permanent, authoritarian control of the USA – the biggest prize communists have sought since the 1950s. That should be just in time for the onset of World War III. By the way, for my fellow gray hairs, wasn’t Joe McCarthy, right? He doesn’t look so crazy now – does he?
Step one – Last week, the ~~G20~~ Surveillance State Association approved vaccine passports for all G20 countries. Can the passports be printed before the recipients drop from the shot?
Did you hear about the G20 framework approved for reparations to third-world nations? Your treasury is about to be robbed again. After the Orwellians and their supporters take their corrupt cut (think FTX), the rest will be stolen by the despots that run these third-world (communist) regimes, Folks, we are talking trillions here!
Patriots – we blew it. The midterms were our last chance. There will be no going back from here. Strap in because it all needs to burn down before we even have a prayer of restoring the Republic. This must be what it was like in the final days of Rome.
Emma Goldman once observed that the elites would ban voting if voting worked. Embedded in her observation about voting is the true contempt of those in power for you and others they rule.
The saddest takeaway from the midterms is just how many of our fellow citizens, especially young people, drank the Kool-Aid and share this contempt. They think joining the cool kids club and pushing the Skinner Box button on election day will save them from the Orwellian elites’ tyrannical impulse. Good luck with that.
So should we be upset that the Fed might burn Europe down with higher interest rates? I am cheering for the Fed now. The more Europe, the U.S. Treasury, and the United Nations squawk at our Fed, the better.
Even if we burn our economy down with higher rates, it may be our only chance to reboot the country we once loved.
So what is your Plan B? Time to dust it off.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, futures are down slightly to 3950 ahead of the ~~Thanksgiving~~ Indigenous Peoples holiday-shortened week.
Our updated forecast shows lighter volatility today, with a 1% implied move plus or minus the open.
Both 3900 and 4000 are in play this week.
4000 is where we see heavy resistance, with lighter 3975 resistance in between.
To the downside, we note a support band from 3960 (SPY 395) to 3950. Beneath, there is more significant support at 3900. Below is another air pocket – let’s leave that alone for today.
We see option market positioning as very neutral in the 3950 – 4000 area.
Our default view is that markets want to revert into this zone, particularly the 4000 strike.
Until further notice, we are in a balance/consolidation zone, still digesting that huge candle from over a week ago.
We likely need a trigger to push markets significantly in either direction, and Wednesday’s 2 pm ET Fed Minutes appear to be the nearest data catalyst.
Our base case is one more push higher before we set the nominal 80-day wave down into the early December Fed meeting.
After that, the market should try to launch a new nominal 80-day wave which is likely to fail early as the market winds down into the 18-month cycle low scheduled for February 2, 2022.
Oh, I forgot to mention that the February projected low is likely the mid-cycle “pause.” The next 18-month cycle low is scheduled for 2024 on the nominal four-year Presidential Election cycle, which might be the one that blows everything out of the water, just in time for World War III to commence.
I will be in the Trading Room tomorrow only.

Happy Holidays Comrades. Long live the State!

A.F. Thornton

Category Founder’s Trading Journal

Another Calm Before the Storm?

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