View From the Top - Interim Update | Archimedes Methodologies

Tuesday Evening, May 4, 2021

Sometimes I can be dumb as a skunk (no offense to skunks). I was getting all excited this morning, thinking the market top had finally arrived. I shorted several indexes yesterday (Monday) and started handing out parachutes to less fortunate traders who went all-in long yesterday at a poor location. It is a wonder I wasn’t popping champagne corks.

But, from all appearances thus far, we merely put the bottom in on a minor correction today – likely of the 80-day cycle variety. Perhaps completion of a fourth wave in Elliot Wave parlance – with a fifth and final wave about to take us higher. This also was the “minor” low possibility I mentioned in Sunday night’s weekly outlook. I had already profitably covered some of my shorts at the open today (dumb – I should have kept all of them until mid-day). I have been such a chicken lately (no offense to chickens). I suppose I have been overly protective of my capital due to the positive and rational economic and political environment. Of course, I am being facetious.

I sent out this alert as we approached the important support zone mid-day, where I covered the rest of my short positions on the S&P 500. Reviewing everything tonight, the volume spike today and the second spike in the put/call ratio since last Friday makes me believe that the low is in – at least for now. That does not necessarily portend new highs – likely some indexes and sectors will see new highs and some won’t. It all depends on the success of this next attempt to pivot higher.

We shall see what tomorrow brings, but the indexes are more likely than not to pivot higher here. The S&P 500 might even attempt new highs before finally rolling over into the 18-month cycle correction. I am not so confident about the relative strength of growth or tech stocks and their dominant index, the NASDAQ 100. The index would be lucky to reach its recent all-time high. All of this leaves me in a 24-hour wait and see mode.

The difference between a minor low and a major one, and the complications we face here, has to do with our new friend – inflation. The positions of the cycles also influence the outcome – and the longer cycles have wide variations in their troughing windows.

To satisfy the criterea for an intermediate correction, nearly all 11 S&P 500 sectors will need to participate in the precipitous decline. Today, tech bore the brunt of the decline as we continued to see rotation back into the value/cyclical sectors, particularly those that benefit from inflation. This creates a math problem because different sectors have different weightings and influence on the indexes. With the highest index weighting at 27%, Tech can weigh the major indexes down like an anchor – even when the other sectors are trying to float.

The labels below from today show the current sector weightings in order of their influence. Four out of the 11 sectors were still positive (green versus red) today. Healthcare would be defensive and expected to perform better in a decline, so it does not count as much in my analysis of the day. But Financials, Industrials, and Basic Materials are risk-on sectors that all benefit from higher inflation and interest rates. Energy benefits as well – and it was barely negative.

Also, there is a bullish, ascending triangle in retail (XRT). Even Warren Buffet believes retailers have pricing power here. By the way, have you noticed the shrinking package sizes at the stores lately? Sneaky! Incidentally, Mr. Buffet announced that he was terrified by current market valuations at the recent Berkshire Hathaway meeting.

So for the moment, what we are seeing is another rotation out of tech and into sectors that can both preserve their profit margins and benefit from the inflation that is brutally attacking the economy, consumers, and lower-income Americans – courtesy of the Uniparty (both Democrats and Republicans) run amock.

Our rulers have fallen in love with the printing press and seemingly lost their minds. Or, from a more dystopian perspective, they are purposely levying inflation – the most hideous, regressive, underhanded, and hidden tax known to humans on unsuspecting and Americans. Lower and middle-income earners will suffer the most – just as they always do. Our rulers suggest that only Americans making less than $400,000 will see a tax increase. Really? What a joke! Does that include inflation? Obviously not.

I laugh when all the headlines read, “Inflation is Coming.” Look around, friends; it is already here. Look at housing prices, gas prices, grocery prices, car prices, etc. – what the hell do they mean “it is coming”? The recent rise in lumber prices alone adds $36,000 of additional cost to the price of the average newly constructed home.

I can hardly discuss inflation, as I am seething with anger watching our politicians take this country down the same road as 1920s Weimar Germany. The current crop of politicians are so unbelievably arrogant in ignoring history’s lessons. I am darn sick and tired of their new love with MMT (Modern Monetary Theory). It is not unlike the Covid-19 vaccine- we are all current guinea pigs of inadequately tested and proven theories.

With MMT, particularly the leftist politicians and bankers think they can print as much money as they want because the US Dollar is the current world reserve currency. The truth is – MMT really stands for “more money today.” The hell with the future. It is the current ruling class version of the argument “this time its different.” Those are the four most dangerous words in financial market history. IT IS NEVER DIFFERENT – no matter how much smarter this group thinks they are than their predecessors throughout history.

Here are the lessons of history – in case one of these morons ever reads this. There isn’t a single fiat currency that has lasted as a reserve currency for more than four generations in the history of the world. Moreover, there is no dominant world power that has lasted more than four generations at the global helm in recent memory. That is what a fourth turning is all about.

I am seething because I have to sit and watch our corrupt political class walk us right into a collapse, surrendering world domination to China. Sometimes, I even believe a cabal in our government wants the collapse so they can reboot us in the authoritarian model of China and the World Economic Forum’s Great Reset. The US Constitution is a terrible inconvenience for these people. They prefer to toss it out in favor of the surveillance state.

Know this; there are no accidents or coincidences. It is almost as if “heads” – the central planners win – “tails” the people lose. I can hardly contain my disdain for Washington, D.C. these days, and the incompetent, ego-maniac bureaucrats that run it. Our founders feared this day would come from the outset of the country.

And let me be clear; I see little (if any) difference between Republicans and Democrats, save a very, very few good ones on each side.

Make no mistake about where we are – this is the people versus the ruling class. This is not about Democrats versus Republicans, conservatives versus liberals, or one group identity versus another. All of that is a smokescreen to attempt to distract and divide us. God forbid if all of us got together on our common ground and threw all the “&*%(#$” out. If the people don’t get a grip soon, the Uniparty will take this country – and our assets – down. And it will happen sooner rather than later.

So maybe we party on from this minor low – I haven’t decided yet. I don’t want to be the last one to turn the lights out. I cannot possibly convey how bad things could get if we don’t turn these corrupt, asinine policies – and the inflation that follows – around soon. You know it in your heart.

Unlike the ruling class, you have common sense, haven’t taken a payoff, and have no agenda other than a decent life for your friends and family.

Thanks for letting me rant.

A.F. Thornton

View From the Top – Interim Update