Good Afternoon:

• As it usually is on a True Gap, the first clue to the day was how the market managed the morning gap per Gap Rules.
• After the price gapped down to our second support level at 4450, traders rejected every attempt to fill the Gap. The overhead spikes on the first few 5-minute candles look like cactus spines.
• At that point, unable to fill the gap, you start the day with a clear, negative bias.
• And since the next logical support below is the 50-day line (the only important moving average left standing), you can usually bet the market will find its way there, and it did.
• So the market moved down just above the 50-day line and 4420 support and went sideways until the final hour of trading.
• During the final hour, the market puked into the close, and our final support line at 4400, also the WEM Low.
• It is never fun to start the week at the WEM low, but that is where we find ourselves in the shortened holiday week.
• In normal circumstances, Dealers will defend the 4400 level for the rest of the week, but if they lose the battle, they will have to sell futures into the decline, exacerbating it.
• Notably, Monthly Options Expiration is on Thursday this week due to the Friday holiday. We will evaluate the bias later in the week, but right now, it looks like 20% of the float expires.
• Navigator Day Traders™ had two good trades today, one long and one short.
• Now, let’s jump out of the day trading weeds, and see what today adds to the larger narrative.