Afternoon Notes – 4/20/2022

Good Afternoon:

• The S&P 500 attempted a move up from the tip of the right shoulder of the reversal pattern we discussed in the last few writings but stalled.
• Netflix (NFLX) (having joined the ranks of wokesters – Facebook (FB), Twitter (TWTR), and Disney (DIS)) – became the latest company to be punished by consumers for its woke policies. Go woke – go broke, as they say.
• Netflix’s pre-market announcement put the stock in a free fall today.
• Users and subscribers abandoned ship in droves for the first time in the company’s history, preferring normal rather than woke programming.
• As a result, the NASDAQ 100 struggled, which muted the S&P 500’s effort to launch. It was back to that capitalization thing.
• So we were left hanging at the inflection point again, with nothing resolved and traders/investors bracing for more impact from earnings and positioning for the early May Fed meeting. 
• I remain about 50.1% bullish for a swing higher and 49.9% in doubt. If anything, the pattern looks too good to be true. Our brains constantly look for patterns, and this one has the hallmarks of a successful turn.
• But patterns don’t always complete, and every once in a while, the Leprachauns show up.
• If you cover the left side of the pattern, this consolidation could be a bear flag to go lower. Always keep an open mind.
• The Founders Group did not trade today, and the swing buy signal has yet to manifest. Sometimes, the Algo comes right to the edge in a bear flag before the market rolls over and fails. I call it a buy tease – not a buy signal.
• There would not be a market if the winner of the current debate were clear. The market needs to clear this balance range and move up with everyone on board (e.g., the NASDAQ 100).
• I worry about the Japanese Yen crash and the parabolic turn-in rates.
• Remember when the commodities first spiked a few months back, and I said it would take a few weeks for the bodies to float to the surface. They surely did.
• I have similar thoughts now relating to the Yen and interest rates.
• Something will get broken in the system again; it is only a matter of time.

Stay Tuned.

A.F Thornton