Luck of the Irish

The China Virus still haunts us here in Colorado, and I am half Irish. The combination means I am off to the Driver License bureau this morning to renew my driver’s license that expired last April. Naturally, of all days I have to do this, the S&P 500 futures contract is already tagging my initial target line mentioned in the update last night. I want to be at my desk to monitor this and confirm a tradable bottom if it were to arrive today. That is the Irish part – Murphy’s Law. What can go wrong will go wrong.

These corrections don’t come often enough lately, and I hate to miss the bottom of this one. Of course, there is no guarantee the market will stop at my target – but I would at least like to monitor it. The cell phone will have to do – but it does not like my algorithms. At least I can see my main computer at my office on it – with a magnifying glass. 

Unless I want to wait another three months, I have to drive to Trinidad (on the New Mexico/Colorado border) to renew my license (requires an in-person appointment). I have another appointment near me, but even that is another month out. Five hours in the car to renew my license. Thanks, China!

Colorado has given all of us a grace period to drive on the expired licenses, but not everyone who needs an ID from you follows suit. Before I get sent back to Ireland as an “undocumented” immigrant, I am at the limit. I am just kidding about being sent back – but it feels that bad having an expired driver’s license for almost a year. 

As you probably know, President* Biden has outlawed the term “illegal” immigrant. Well, I am not sure if the same ban applies to European immigrants. They are mostly white and tend to vote Republican – so perhaps they are still “illegals.” Our Southern friends vote Democrat, so they are just “undocumented” now. Apparently, the proposal now amounts to 20 million of them getting citizenship and jobs.

My mother told me if I don’t have something nice to say, don’t say anything. So I will say that this is anti-inflationary. It will help keep wages and labor costs down. I hope it is not your wages or mine, right?

Gap rules apply this morning.  Start with whether the Globex low at 3861.50 holds. That is today’s line in the sand. Remember that key reference points on the S&P 500 futures are the 50 point handles, so observe 3850 if the Globex low does not hold. A retest of the Globex low is possible in the day session, and they will try to run the stops right below it, making 3850 a key level.

If the Globex low holds, I would use a close above an 8-day EMA line on a 195-minute chart as a proxy for a buy signal. A close above that level is a possible buy signal. That is the best I can do in the circumstances.

As always, stay tuned.

A.F. Thornton