• Good Morning:
• The stock market continues to perform impressively, given all that is on the table – wars, inflation, famine, higher interest rates, etc.
• It makes you wonder if all of those negatives will be served. Part of me thinks that we would be lower but for the dealers defending the 4450 WEM low before expiration today. Another part of me wonders if things are really as bad as they seem.
• The fundamentals seem worse now than at the 2/24 invasion low, but the market has not revisited the same, lower level. Either there are non-believers that the Fed will do what it says, or things will not get as bad as forecasted. They never do, but they are never as good either.
• Volatility is still forecast to be high today, about 45 points plus or minus today’s open. Dealers may have a shorting bias to hedge today, especially on the NASDAQ 100.
• Support is at 4500, then 4475. Resistance is at 4520, then 4550.
• Quarterly earnings announcements should heat up in the next few weeks, but the forward forecasts will be the real tell.
• One could reasonably conclude that this is still a pullback in a new bull trend. The market is holding the 21-day and week lines and the 200-day line. And 4500 is the key bull/bear line in the sand and volatility trigger.
• If we hold the 4500 level into mid-day, then the Vanna fuel builds, and we could see a reasonably strong move higher into the close, with 4550 a good target.
• Subscriber Charts and Key Levels are posted.
• The Navigator Swing Strategy remains in cash, but stay alert for a buy signal.
• I am off today to celebrate 63 years on the planet in spite of five heart attacks, a bout with Covid, two near-death experiences, etc. Kind of like the market surviving wars, inflation, famine, higher interest rates, etc.

Have a good day and a great weekend.

A.F. Thornton