Morning Notes – 7/27/2022

Good Morning:

• The stock market wants to go up and usually gets what it wants.
• In that sense, it may not matter what the Fed does today. Professional money managers are holding a lot of cash and lose clients if their relative performance suffers.
• I can see a rally up to “X marks the spot” 4070 by the end of the week.
• A rally up to 4180 is conceivable by next week.
• At 4070, I want to reevaluate.
• There is a lot of support under the market here, including the 5-week line and the daily 5,21, and 50-day lines. 
• We also have the highest “volume at price” node in the region, around 3910-3920, the pivot point from yesterday. The level should provide considerable support.
• So a close below yesterday’s low negates the bullish scenario. 
• But if the index maintains yesterday’s low and preferably moves above 4000, it bolsters the bullish case up to 4070 and beyond.
• A climb higher is not about improving fundamentals – it is simply a bounce in an otherwise oversold bear market until proven otherwise.

A.F. Thornton