The market is balancing as anticipated today. Tempo is slow, and the range has settled into 4495 at the low end to 4515 at the high end. But after hitting 4514 at the open and then selling off to 4474, it looks like the S&P Futures 15-minute chart (excluding overnight trading) is forming a small ascending triangle projecting into the 4320 area (where the 21-day line, 21-week line, and the WEM High intersect):
Holding the market back is the NASDAQ 100, which is the first index to bump up against its downtrend line from early January. As a result, the S&P 500 is doing a little better than the NASDAQ 100 today, but those large-cap growth names need to run to help the market get over this resistance area.
I give the market 50/50 odds here, but even if we tag 4320, I expect many short sellers to give it a go off the 21-day line.
A.F. Thornton