Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders View from the Top Down – 7/12/2021 by AF Thornton Jul 12, 2021 0 Comment In this Weekly Series, We Examine the Market From a Big Picture, Swing Trading Perspective. We Use the S&P 500 Index as our Broad Market Proxy, and All References to the Market Refer to the S&P 500 Index Unless Otherwise Noted. The Market Remains the Most Significant Variable in Higher or Lower Stock Prices, Influencing 60% to 70% of Individual Stock Price Movement. The Decision to Be Long or Short Based on the General Market’s Direction is One of the Most Important Decisions Investors Will Undertake. In a word, the biggest problem with the market here, and perhaps the only problem, is breadth. This latest rally is narrow, with the breadth (and even some strength measures) still not confirming the new highs.This could result in the market rolling over into an overdue intermediate correction. Or, perhaps another rotation from tech into economically sensitive names can help the market broaden out. Your guess is as good as mine, but we know what to look for. Our entry last week into the broad financials group (XLF) is a bet that the market will broaden out, and rates will begin to rise a bit again. July currently has delivered a small bull bar trading at all-time highs. As previously discussed in these pages, this is the 3rd push higher in a tight bull channel since the pandemic lows. The rally is now rising into a parabolic wedge buy climax, which often attracts profit takers.July is the 6th consecutive monthly bull bar, which is extreme. The last time we had six consecutive bull bars was in 2011. This increases the chance that July will close below the open of the month. If there is a big bear bar closing near its low, it will increase the chance of two to three months of a sideways to down move.However, because the rally has been in a tight bull channel, bulls will buy the eventual pullback, even if it is 20%. In this case, I am expecting about a 10% pullback to the 200-day moving average.While there continue to be weaknesses under the hood of this market, the price action does not yet evidence that the market is ready to correct in a big way.Last week’s bar was a small bull bar at a new high with a big tail below. The tail below indicates bulls bought the test of last week’s low, but the small body indicates a slight loss of momentum.Besides the 4404 trading range measured move we have been discussing, the top of the trend channel around 4500 continues to be a magnet above.Good luck this week. I will be traveling Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, so there will be no updates after tomorrow until Monday, July 19, 2021.A.F. Thornton
Related Posts Navigator™ Signals for Day Traders Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Founder’s Room Notes – 9/30/2022 Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Interim Update – 9/8/2022 Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders New Swing Strategy Signals – 9/7/2022 Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders New Swing Strategy Signal – 8/15/2022 Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Sell Stops Hit Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Adjustment – Leveraged Accounts Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Move Stops Up Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders New Buy Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Sell Signal – Stop Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Navigator Swing Buy Signal
Navigator™ Signals for Day Traders Navigator™ Signals for Swing Traders Founder’s Room Notes – 9/30/2022
AF Thornton Website: https://tradingarchimedes.com A.F. "Arthur" Thornton is an expert in logic, risk/reward quantification, market fractals, pattern recognition and asset class behavioral analysis with 34 years devoted to developing algorithmic and quantitative trading systems. In addition to trading his own capital, Mr. Thornton designs custom algorithmic and quantitative trading systems for a small and exclusive group of exceptionally qualified traders.