☽ The market could very well be in a foldback, meaning that the climb back up to the old highs will be the mirror image of the bear market from January 2021 until October 2022 low.
☽ But in the very short term, the market is overbought. The master cycle says we are getting close to a correction. And seasonally the market normally dips from mid-June to August before the summer rally presents. Then the market tilts south again into October.
☽ The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are in parabolic melt-ups at the moment, because money managers are at risk of getting fired at quarter-end.
☽ We call it FOMO – Fear of Missing Out. And Wall Street’s fear is well-placed. Most of them bought/buy the gloom and doom narrative and find themselves on the wrong side of the market. It is a brutal business and clients are fickle, always looking for a prettier face. And then there are the money managers who have been short. They have a lot of ‘splainin to do.
☽ And who knows how much higher the market can climb in a melt-up before it sucks these managers (and retail investors) in – and then mercilessly dumps them all? Feast or famine – never stand in front of a freight train…
☽ But there is hope for the bears. The chart above shows a convergence of Fibonacci cycles around June 15th. And there are more Vortexes to reverse the market around mid-June than I could possibly list here. But it could still be rough for the bears for the next few sessions. The early week inflation report, the Fed, or quadruple witching options expiration could end (or extend) the party.
☽ This would not be the first time that the bulls got sucked into the initial wave rally after a bear, only to see a “C” wave down that is equal to the decline from January 2021-October 2022. It happens – think 1932.
☽ Also recall that the Fed currently abhors a strong stock market because the wealth effect supposedly counters their fight against the inflation they caused. But lately, the wealth effect is so narrow that I could see the Fed going with the program to line the pockets of their elite friends.
☽ But to be fair, the crowd found itself rallying into the gate of several other potential Fed “pauses,” only to be disappointed. Even if the Fed does pause, isn’t it a “buy the rumor,” “sell the news” moment? The market typically recovers as the “Recession” arrives because it looks ahead. We already had the bear market that predicted a contraction. The pundits get it wrong because memories fade and bear markets do not occur frequently in time.
☽ At the end of the day, it is all math. Most stocks and indexes trade in base ten mathematics. And now they are traded by computers running on “1s” and “0s,” soon to be Qubits. And then there is the alchemy of the crowd, creating natural and recursive cycles. The markets and stocks move to their own, unique DNA based on their history. But they are subject to the rules of three and fourth dimensional math, just like everything else in nature.
☽ And what I will be teaching is how to use the intelligent M-Squares with our Archimedes (formerly Navigator) Algorithm to put all of this math on your side without needing to become a physicist. I promise to go easy on the math and physics involved – you don’t need to be a professor to understand the general theory of how the M-Squares work. Here is a hint – Time = Price^2.