Morning Notes – 3/23/2022

Morning Notes – 3/23/2022

This is an image of a wife stock market meme.

Good Morning:

  • It is good to laugh once in a while. I do get in a lot of trouble at home sometimes. “Can’t you put that phone away?” There are golf widows and trader widows. I am in the latter category.
  • Key A.M. Trade Levels and Charts are up for subscribers.
  • Traders piled into options at 4500 yesterday, which should now be considered a very important level.
  • Since Globex has pulled back to 4488 at this writing, let’s peg 4500 to 4510 as resistance today. 4476 and 4449 will provide support.
  • One oddity is that the largest Gamma strike and Call Wall is at 4500, but the Put Wall is above that at 4510. That is because of a large JP Morgan collar trade.
  • For now, I would focus on normal trading and view the options market as not providing a lot of influence here.
  • UK inflation came out at 6.2% for consumers and 10.1% at the producer level. Maybe the numbers soured the overnight crowd.
  • Fed Chairman Powell and Fed Gov’s Baily, Daly, and (hawk of all hawks) Bullard speak today. How about a break, gentlemen? Don’t you have anything to do back at the office?
  • We will get some news on the housing market and mortgages today – vital economic indicators.
  • How about a “Diesel Squeeze” – says the biggest independent oil trader speaking at the FT Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland on Tuesday. Corporate leaders warn that global markets face a squeeze on diesel, with Europe most at risk of a “systemic” shortage leading to fuel rationing.
  • First, the coronavirus brought on supply-chain disruption, then the war in Ukraine further rocked commodity markets. The next bout of inflation via raw material prices comes from resource nationalism. Nations are rethinking their approach to national stockpiling.
  • Paul Pelosi, husband to Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker, exercised options securing between $1 million and $5 million worth of Tesla stock on March 17th, days after his wife Nancy, the House Speaker, applauded her passing the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act on March 14th.
  • After the original Tesla purchase, Nancy Pelosi spearheaded the legislation to give tens of billions of dollars to build electric charging stations across the country.
  • Nancy announced the passage of the bill on Monday, March 14th. Paul sold on Thursday, March 17th. Once again, Nancy’s stock picks rival even the best hedge funds.
  • Supreme Court nominee Judge Jackson defended her light sentences for child porn offenders yesterday, lamenting that sexual offenders are “so ostracised by society.”
  • Exactly Judge. The rest of us out here don’t like people who like child porn, child abuse, and child rape.
  • It makes me wonder if Q’Non’s conspiracy claims about the elite and child sacrifice are valid. All the other conspiracies are turning out to be true. You cannot make this stuff up!
  • I am having lunch with JFK, Jr. tomorrow. I will be asking him about all of this (you have to know about Q’Non to get the lunch joke – they think JFK Jr. is still alive and sending Q’Non members coded messages)
US 10-Year Rate
US 10-Year Rate
  • I want to get into the 10-year rate soon, as it is completing our head and shoulders measured move into the top of its multi-decade downtrend channel – another moment of truth.
  • But consider this – why is the rate rising so fast? Is it possible that sovereign funds around the world are selling their treasuries now that the US is weaponizing the dollar?
  • What if, instead, long rates do not stop rising as the U.S. economy slows? What if sovereign selling pressure in the bond market continues and increases in the months ahead?
  • Longer treasury rates are getting very close to a breakout point. What kind of accelerated selling might materialize if the trend is decisively broken?
  • As the latest existing home sales report cautioned, with NAR chief economist Larry Yun warning that “housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases.”
  • I am still targeting the Feb highs for our QQQ and SPY swing positions, but stops are set too. The Feb highs are a little above the golden zone for a Fibonacci retracement.

    We will let the market decide for us.

    A.F. Thornton

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AF Thornton

Website: https://tradingarchimedes.com

A.F. "Arthur" Thornton is an expert in logic, risk/reward quantification, market fractals, pattern recognition and asset class behavioral analysis with 34 years devoted to developing algorithmic and quantitative trading systems. In addition to trading his own capital, Mr. Thornton designs custom algorithmic and quantitative trading systems for a small and exclusive group of exceptionally qualified traders.

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