Trick, Trap, & Trade – Orwell Springs A Leak

Good Morning:

• I answered a few emails this morning that motivated some deep thinking. and No, truly, I don’t have a crystal ball though it may seem like it sometimes. I am simply a Contrarian skeptic.
• Yesterday’s pre-market commentary was merely one of my periodic rants. I wasn’t prepared for the stunning market manipulation and cheating that ensued thereafter – I am suspicious of the current regime, and gave them plenty benenfit of the doubt when they first stole took office. And we still made a few hundred dollars in the Trading Room despite it all.

First, the Markets – Then The Rant

•  as to the markets, Key levels remain largely unchanged in the S&P 500, with resistance at 4050/4060 (SPY405), then 4100. As Fed Chairman Powell is on deck today at 2 PM EsT, we must include one more resistance line above at 4148. the most critical Support lies below at 4000 (the largest open interest strike), followed by 3960 (SPY 395), 3950, and finally 3900.
• Yesterday’s main takeaway (besides the insider cheating discussed below) was the addition of calls to higher S&P strikes. These calls were likely sold into yesterday morning’s pop, as implied volatility was very rich. We saw a +7% increase in SPX call open interest and a -2% reduction in put interest. Further, the skew remains very flat, with risk reversal at -.04. Understandably, the CPI did nothing to add fear to markets.
• Yesterday’s fade seemed to leave many scratching their heads but made complete sense according to an options lens. Trickster & Company manipulated options prices so high that, once the event (CPI) fired, the move collapsed on itself.
• There was very little real money being deployed by the system. It’s unlikely big money would jump the main FOMC event today – unless they already know the number like yesterday’s cheaters.
• The ironic part is that today’s DEM expects a much smaller move than yesterday.
• It is ironic because it’s Powell that will determine the path of asset prices in the future – not a lagging CPI Report.
• In line with options pricing in a ~1.5% move today, the entire SPX term structure has shifted lower.
• The market is pricing in lower future volatility now, as the assumption is Powell may be less aggressive on rates.
• Santa Claus may be on deck if the market chews yesterday’s rejection tail. But the all-clear comes next week after expiration. We should have a good handle on positioning by Tuesday morning.

On Yesterday’s Report Leak, Insider Trading, and Cheating…

• Then I ask myself – if the Orwell comrades are willing to (i) oust a sitting President in a Coup D’etat (or several), (ii) openly sabotage voter equipment to steal elections, (iii) open our Southern Border in flagrant violation of immigration laws (and give each illegal a new phone and prepaid Visa card), (iii) arrest and sequester FTX’s SBF yesterday so he cannot testify to Congress about the Democrats’ crypto bribery and Ukraine money laundering operation, (iv) rob the U.S. Treasury and Taxpayers to line their pockets and consolidate permanent power, then why wouldn’t they rig the stock market to flood their money coffers?
• After all, who is the biggest Democrat donor? Right, Hedge Fund investor George Soros (now that Sam Bankman Friedman and FTX are defunct. A little tit for tat for the Wall Street donors ahead of important government economic reports that move the markets? I don’t know who is behind all this, but I think this incestuous spider web of players and ideologies is all related.
• And that now leaves us with What will happen with the Fed Interest Rate Announcement later today? Is that going to be rigged too?
• I typically sit these reports out precisely because I am so skeptical about everything – but yesterday was beyond stunning. I will sit out today’s announcement too. I will let it settle enough to allow the crooks to finish their work and move on.
• It used to take months for the market to move 4%, and yesterday it moved 4% in one trading session.
• You can bet that the fortunes of legitimate players were lost yesterday, and I am sure some dealers and individual investors are headed to bankruptcy today.
• This is our reality now – cheating, corruption, and degradation of morals. This is the American Marxist Left in all its glory, as they rob the U.S. Treasury and consolidate their permanent rule of this Country.
• The Uniparty loves, admires, and fully intends to implement the Chinese authoritarian and surveillance state here. That is where we are headed, folks. Don’t believe me? Listen to the Marxists’ Chief Architect, World Economic Forum CEO Klaus Barbie Schwab: